The utter and unexpected failure of Russia to take its objectives in Putin’s War has left most observers a little dazed, but the reports that Ukraine is pushing Russia’s best around is bordering on the surreal, although a lot of it must have to do with supplies of American weaponry, which would appear to be superior. Most of the aggressive claims I’m seeing are coming off Daily Kos, such as this opinion piece by Hunter:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with President Joe Biden again today as Biden confirmed another $500 million in aid would be headed for the country, while peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue to go nowhere. Peace talks aren’t likely to go anywhere for a while yet; Ukraine’s very successful recent routing of some of the best the Russian military has to offer is likely contributing to the country’s conviction that they need not abandon territory to Russia in exchange for a peace deal, even as Russia continues to shell civilian population centers in an effort to focus their military might against primarily unarmed targets.
As for the announced Russian retreat—that is, “tactical withdrawal”—from positions around Kyiv most at risk of being encircled by Ukrainian counterattacks, there’s still no evidence to suggest Russia is doing anything but some minor shuffles. The biggest battlefield changes aren’t from intentional Russian moves, but from Ukraine retaking ground by blasting through Russian equipment; if Russia does intend to fall back to more defensible positions, even that may prove a challenge.
If, in fact, Ukraine’s tactics are disassembling a vaunted war machine to the extent that a special conscription has been ordered by Putin in order to continue his war, it speaks volumes to Russia’s war readiness.
And does nothing to further discourage a Chinese grab for Russia territory, as I suggested a few days ago here and here.
It may up the chances, but, given Russia still holds nuclear weapons, tactical that they may be for the most part, China still faces spectacular hurdles to leap, no matter how hollow the Russian war machine may appear.
But, in my limited reading time, I’m becoming more and more astounded that no one remembers the German-Soviet Nonaggression Pact. For the unfamiliar, this divided Europe into spheres of influence for Germany and the Soviet Union, and the naive should think that it would also prohibit mutual aggression. However, it did not, as Germany soon attacked the Soviet Union.
Recently, China and Russia signed a treaty that sounded at least little bit like the pact above – and my point is that two autocratic regimes signing a non-aggression pact is hardly an iron door locked with shackles. The perception of facts is changing rapidly, and re-appraisals could lead to abrupt aggression.
So we should be talking about that potential aggression, in the papers, in the halls of the Pentagon, and at the White House. Are we? No one’s mentioning it that I’m aware of.
We need to be ready, as we were for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
