In case you’re looking for a good summary of current information on the Omicron variant of Covid-19, you may wish to consider consulting Zvi Mowshowitz on Don’t Worry About the Vase. I particularly thought this graph to be quite striking:
This is a graph of the amount of Covid found in the wastewater in Boston. If you have links to similar other measurements taken regularly, share them in the comments.
That spike on the right has two of the three highest single-day measurements, and they were the last two days of data reported. This can’t represent Delta cases alone unless it’s a data error, because the rise is too rapid given what we know about conditions. If it’s Omicron and the measurements are what they superficially look like, it means Omicron is already primary in Boston, and there’s a huge spike in infections already, that hasn’t been matched with a surge in hospitalizations or positive tests.
There are other outlier measurements on the graph, so probably these are outlier measurements. But if they hold up over the next few days, then what would that mean?
If they hold up and there isn’t a wave of new hospitalizations quickly, then this is the best of all possible worlds. Omicron would be spreading like wildfire, but be much milder than previous waves. We’d be able to get through it quickly, and have no realistic way to prevent it, so all we could do would be to shield the vulnerable to the extent we could, use what treatments we have that we can get to be legal, and come out the other side.
If they hold up and then the hospitalizations follow then things are quite bad, it’s hitting us now and we’re in a crisis situation. There will be pressure to do very foolish things to try and stop something that will be utterly impossible to stop, and Paxlovid will arrive too late to make much difference.
It’s fascinating that simple sampling of harbor water yields results that the experts feel are trustworthy – or anything at all. I mean, chemicals, yeah, sure – pharmaceuticals appear at sometimes alarming levels in wastewater.
But viruses can survive in wastewater?
I suppose this just shows me to be a naive software engineer.
