We’re not the only screwups in the Middle East, as this AL-Monitor report by Fehim Tastekin makes clear:
After losing three soldiers in a bomb attack in Idlib, the last bastion of Islamist rebels in Syria, Turkey pounded Syrian Kurdish targets last week, sending a misleading message of revenge to its public. The episode underscores Ankara’s growing predicament in Idlib, where jihadi forces target Turkish troops even as Turkey’s military presence shields them against the Syrian army.
In Idlib, Turkey has sought to use the dominant Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group to suppress smaller jihadi groups, eager to create the impression that terrorist groups are being eliminated in the region, as its deals with Russia require. Meanwhile, it has kept reorganizing its allies from the Syrian National Army, an umbrella group for various opposition forces. Ultimately, all those efforts have been aimed at preventing a fresh Syrian-Russian offensive to retake the region. This calculus seems to be failing, and tensions in Idlib are on the rise.
Turkey’s predicaments stem from several fronts. Its military and intelligence have sought to create a regular army out of the armed opposition groups that have backed Turkish forces in the regions seized in northern Syria. The Syrian National Army, proclaimed in October 2019, was an outcome of those efforts. Yet factions in that setup have continued to act autonomously, clash with each other, and commit crimes against local civilians.
The best I can figure is that the profusion of ambitious religious groups leads to confusion, shifting alliances, and ass-covering. This is not conducive to satisfying national ambitions, or, more accurately, the ambitions of national leaders, such as Turkish President Erdogan, who appears to long to leave a mark on the Turkish Republic – such as erasing the word ‘Republic’.
If & when fossil fuels become less important to the world economy, it’ll be interesting to see how the Middle East’s lessening importance changes interference and behaviors in the region.
