Karen Tumulty of WaPo finds hope in the news that 35 House Republicans voted for the bipartisan commission on the January 6th Capitol insurrection, despite the opposition of Rep Kevin McCarthy and the rest of what we so laughingly call the House GOP leadership:
Political analysts, including esteemed handicapper Charlie Cook, have noted that while there are few signs that Trump’s base has or will turn on him, there is some evidence that their fervor for him no longer burns as hot as it once did.
In a recent column for National Journal, Cook cited a raft of previously unreleased polling data conducted by Hart Research for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal. It showed, among other things, that the share of Trump loyalists who said they had “very positive” feelings about him had declined from the 83-to-94-percent range during his presidency down to 75 percent in an April survey. More and more of them described their feelings about Trump as “somewhat positive” or even “neutral.” …
Republicans in what’s left of the party’s battered establishment wing have been having quiet conversations among themselves about the need to help protect these courageous GOP lawmakers from Trump’s wrath by raising money for them and possibly by bringing in firepower from super PACs.
I think the wildcard that Tumulty is ignoring is the influence of the religious leaders on their flocks. When Trump unexpectedly won in 2016, the clerics and “prophets” and all the other grifters who had put a bet on Trump found the skies had opened and it rained all over them – wealth, power, and prestige. They’ll do their damndest – word play intended – to cling to all those things, as will certain members of their flocks who, too, discovered those things in their devotion to Trump.
That includes such strategies as pushing out the rational and semi-rational Republicans, such as Cheney, Sanford, and anyone who voted for impeachment or the bipartisan commission. An irrational base, easily led and milked, is their goal. They won’t be easily discouraged, because they’ve had their taste of all the foul honey.
And the devotion of the base has been astounding. The only real question is whether Trump is caught out doing something truly horrific, such as being on the edge of bankruptcy. Not being worth billions would be a real turnoff for the prosperity church creatures. Certain types of sexual deviancy might also cause it.
But if Trump dies, someone else will pick up the reins. In fact, there’ll be a good fight over them.
