As anyone paying attention knows, there are concerns that Trump will attempt to delay or confuse the vote counting in various states, in a far-fetched attempt to steal the election. He’s also expressed disinterest in a peaceful transfer of power if he loses.
So let’s setup a scenario here.
As is probable, let’s assume Democrat Mark Kelly wins the special election in Arizona.
Fairly improbably, but possible, Democrat Rafael Warnock wins the special election in Georgia.
Special election winners are seated immediately. This brings the Senate to 51-49 before Jan 21 – probably well before it.
And then there’s a new corruption scandal on the horizon – which will be known as the influence peddling scheme concerning the Turkish bank Halkbank:
If the New York Times’s story about the Justice Department’s handling of the case of a Turkish bank—and President Trump’s interference in that case—had broken any other week, it would be a very big deal. A week before the election, with the country inured to the president’s propensity to abuse law enforcement power, it has barely merited a yawn.
The case is worth your time.
Recall that back in June, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, Geoffrey Berman, was dismissed abruptly under somewhat confusing circumstances. Attorney General William Barr announced that Berman had stepped down from his position—only for Berman himself to deny having resigned. Berman then refused to leave until President Trump himself issued a letter firing him, after which Berman announced that he would depart from his job with the expectation that his deputy would “continue to safeguard the Southern District’s enduring tradition of integrity and independence.” The strange chain of events, including why the attorney general was so eager to be rid of the U.S. attorney, has never been fully explained. [Lawfare]
Suppose, at 51-49, Trump is being recalcitrant and pulling his usual bully shit. Speaker Pelosi, with an even larger majority incoming (but not seated) than before, calls up Senator Schumer (D-NY) and Senate Majority Leader (R-KY), who will probably survive reelection, and lays it out:
- Trump is shredding our nation.
- Trump is destroying the Republican Party.
- Trump is selling influence (see Halkbank, above), which reflects poorly on the Republican Party as well, especially with 2022 already on the horizon.
What to do about it?
Lightning impeachment. Seventeen Republican Senators is a long ways to go, but it’s not as improbable as it seems.
Impeachment articles can be drawn up in a hurry, if Pelosi so wishes it. They can be delivered to the Senate within a day or two. SCOTUS cannot save President Trump, only the Senate GOP members can save him.
And many of them are not happy with him. They see fellow Party members voting against him. And against them.
And some of the incumbents, besides those already lost in Arizona and Georgia, will also have lost, such as Perdue (also of Georgia – it’s the two-fer state), Gardner (R-CO), Daines (R-MT), Ernst (R-IA), Robertson (R-KA – he’s retiring, actually, but having nothing to lose but his Party, he may still be interested), and Graham (R-SC), all looking for revenge on the failure in the White House. In the Senate until Jan 21, it’s entirely possible that they, and a few Senators who were not up for reelection, just might be willing to turn on the Curse of the Republican Party.
So perhaps McConnell twists some arms, collects some promises – and then he, House Minority Leader Senator Schumer (R-NY), and Pelosi, after some horse-trading, compose a letter telling Trump to peacefully cooperate or face immediate dismissal.
A long-shot? Sure! But speculating about the possible is part of what gets me through these tension-filled times. And it would be quite entertaining if it came down to actual impeachment.
