Over the last few months, the Trump Administration has been part of deals to normalize diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, both located in the Middle East and of and officially Islamic, and now Sudan, an African nation with an Arabian-linked history, and, until recently, Islam as its official religion, but it is now officially secular. The most recent deal, announced yesterday, is noted here:
The east African country of Sudan on Friday became the third predominantly Muslim country to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel, in a deal brokered by President Donald Trump less than two weeks before the election.
Hailing the agreement as a “huge win” on Twitter, Trump claimed that more countries would follow. He also posted a joint statement issued on behalf of all three countries.
“The Sudanese government has demonstrated its courage and commitment to combatting [sic] terrorism, building its democratic institutions, and improving its relations with its neighbors,” the statement said, adding that the agreement would “improve regional security.”
“The United States will take steps to restore Sudan’s sovereign immunity and engage its international partners to reduce Sudan’s debt burdens, including advancing discussions on debt forgiveness,” the statement added. [NBC News]
This is the only real mention of what I would assume would be trumpeted as a big foreign policy victory for the Trump Administration that’s thrust its way into my consciousness; a search of the Web also found this CNN article, which I have not read. On the assumption that the mainstream media is downplaying it, I checked the National Review web site, but there’s nothing on its front page. You’d expect a “conservative” (that is, we’re right-wing fringe but we pretend to be respectable) site to be trumpeting any achievement by Trump as evidence of his competence, but no.
This all leads to the question: In the absence of a competent Administration, or perhaps more accurately a chronically incompetent Administration, and no comment that I have run across from disinterested parties, how does an American citizen without foreign policy specialization evaluate such an announcement?
Quite honestly, it’s difficult. The short answer is that you wait and watch for at least five years. Do these three countries treat Israel like any other country with which they have normal relations? Or does the old treatment of hostility, perhaps interference in external and internal affairs, continue? Keep in mind that the UAE (10 million) and Bahrain (1.5 million) are not large compared to Israel’s nemeses Saudi Arabia (34 million) and Iran (83 million), and while Sudan is quite sizable (41 million), it’s been in turmoil for decades, and is not a neighbor of Israel. This probably means none of these three countries have been actively hostile towards Israel, but only passively hostile. Exactly what that means will be country-specific.
Another two questions to ask are What was dangled to get their acquiescence, and Was the reward good or bad for the United States? Again, that second question is difficult to answer, I’ll not be glib about it. NBC News mentioned debt forgiveness for Sudan, while AL Monitor notes another important consideration:
Sudan has agreed to recognize Israel, President Donald Trump announced Friday, just after the White House said it had notified Congress that it removed Khartoum from the state sponsors of terrorism list.
As Sudan’s political system has recently changed to democracy, this may be warranted; AL Monitor also notes:
Experts say Sudan’s removal from the list is long overdue and if the country’s newfound democratic project is to succeed, it needs all the access to international assistance it can get.
I wish I knew who these experts might be, but I also do not consider AL Monitor to be so political as to publish outright lies.
Any progress on the peace front is important, even something as apparently minimal as this. I suspect it’s that minimal that explains why these three agreements haven’t had a major impact on the election. After all, the election hasn’t been about foreign policy, but domestic policy, competency, and even morality. It’s good to see progress, but frankly this is more likely the fruit of internal politics in those three nations and the political turmoil in Israel.
