This caught my eye:
BREAKING — Sen Thom Tillis also tests positive for covid-19, his office says. Tillis is also a member of the Judiciary Committee, was at the White House SCOTUS event Saturday, met with Barrett on Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/FMGFWkOiFA
— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) October 3, 2020
Currently, the SCOTUS confirmation hearings have yet to start, and while Senator Tillis and Senator Lee (R-UT) have tested positive for Covid-19, the Judiciary Committee has a 12-10 Republican majority, so, assuming either Lee or Tillis is still functional at vote time, Barrett will make it out of the committee.
But then comes the floor vote. Currently Republicans hold the Senate 53-47 (yes, two Independents caucus with the Democrats, but I don’t think that’ll be relevant). Suppose one of the Senators is hurting so badly he can’t vote.
52-47.
And, remember, Murkowski and Collins have committed to voting against the nominee, not because they don’t like the nominee, but because they believe rules made up by Republicans should apply to Republicans. While I’ve heard that Murkowski has wavered, there’s no definite retraction of promises.
All of a sudden it’s 50-49 for the nominee.
And if one Republican Senator switches sides, nominee Barrett’s dreams of being a Justice go down the tubes, and there’s literally no time to gin up another candidate.
But this gets even more interesting. Suppose confirmation has either failed or not been held yet on November 4th. Special elections result in the installation of the victories Senator immediately upon vote certification, and that can happen rapidly, according to what I read. There are two special elections this go around. The first is in Arizona, where Republican appointed incumbent and Trump-clinger Martha McSally, currently in Senator McCain (R-AZ) old seat, is polling poorly against first time politician and retired astronaut Mark Kelly. I would be surprised if Kelly is not Senator Kelly (D-AZ) in the near future.
But the surprise could be in Georgia, the site of the other special election. Republican appointed incumbent Kelly Loeffler, involved in a jungle primary in which there’s a runoff if no one exceeds 50%, had been in a battle, a war, not with a Democrat, of which no one of note had shown up, but with fellow Republican, House member & Trump ally Doug Collins.
This had been going along quite sleepily until Pastor Raphael Warnock (D-GA) entered the race. At first, he had a solid third place, not good enough to make the runoff. And then, following some high profile endorsements, polls showed Warnock suddenly leading the pack with numbers in the 30s – and some polls in the high 30s.
High enough that if the voters preferring the other Democratic candidates, of which there are two or three, were to transfer their preference to Warnock, he might possibly scrape together a large enough victory to avoid the runoff.
Suddenly, the Republican majority in the Senate is 51-49, and if Collins and Murkowski remain persistent in their insistence upon the importance of principle in the conduct of the Senate, Senator McConnell’s dreams of helping Trump to a third SCOTUS appointment would implode in a most shocking and dramatic fashion.
Sure, a lot of unlikely things have to occur for McConnell’s final (I hope) fiasco to be blighted – but it’s not beyond the realm of possibility. The next few weeks should be vertiginous fascinating.
