A reader reminds me of the events of four years ago when it comes to confidence:
The former Secretary of State leads Trump by 51% to 39% among registered voters nationwide, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows. (Time, July 2016 polls)
Yes, indeed, and he never really caught up. Here’s a time series of poll results from Real Clear Politics:
If only this had major events shown as well, such as the day Clinton sniffled and the right-wing media threw a tizz-fit over her poor health.
And, at the end, due to Electoral College oddities and a collection of independents and Democrats who didn’t trust Secretary Clinton, Clinton won the popular vote and Trump won the Presidency.
But history needn’t repeat itself. Among a positively huge host of differences, the most important might be Trump himself. Before the 2016 election, those who were paying attention knew Trump was untrustworthy.
Today’s FiveThirtyEight Trump Approval Results
But four years later, the gross incompetence facet of his personality has really, really come out. In fact, it’s so flamboyantly obvious that I’m actually discouraged that some 40% of the American public still approves of him. I suspect some 30% will stick with him even if he’s caught committing a crime, just because of his promises to bring back their version of the good times.
And Clinton had carried quite a load of mud from years of Republican Party assault on a person who was actually competent in her job, as both sides of the aisle acknowledged. Republican Party tenets couldn’t accept an expert, as we’ve come to see, and they still seethed from losing to Bill Clinton – twice.
But Biden, former Senator and Vice President, has never been under sustained attack, and is generally likable. His occasional lapses into stuttering, long-term union supporter, history of family tragedy, and other elements render him far more likable than Clinton, as at least I can see myself stuttering when making speeches on the topics he often addresses.
So, sure, there’s an element of “here we go again,” and that’s good – it’ll keep the partisans working and persuade the progressives to get out and VOTE. But it’s not a worrisome element for me. Each election is unique.
