The race for the open Senate seat in Kansas is becoming more and more interesting, and primaries are still to come on August 4. But this development seems a little baffling as to what it may portend:
Kansas Democrat Barbara Bollier raised more in a three-month period than any candidate in Kansas history for federal, state or local office, her campaign announced Wednesday.
Bollier’s U.S. Senate campaign took $3.7 million in contributions from April through June, a quarterly record in the state. The Mission Hills doctor and state senator hopes to be the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in the GOP-leaning state since 1932. Her campaign said it has more than $4 million cash on hand. [Kansas City Star]
But it doesn’t say if those contributions are from state residents, or out of state contributions, nor the median size of these contributions.
Even more interesting is that Bollier is a former Republican who switched parties while a member of the State legislature. How that will play with a conservative State that has suffered through some of the Republican fantasies regarding taxation and had to be rescued by a coalition of Democrats and moderate Republicans should be quite interesting. There are several scenarios waiting on the primaries:
- Candidate Kris Kobach, a far right wing candidate who had previously held the Kansas Secretary of State position, but subsequently lost a run for Governor to a Democrat, loses to his primary competition, most likely current Rep Roger Marshall (R-KA). In this case, Marshall becomes a proxy for President Trump, as he has a TrumpScore in excess of 98% – and while this might be excusable in this Congress, in the previous, GOP-controlled House he had an equally high score. This makes it simple for the Democrats to cast Marshall as Trump and hence a referendum on Trump policies and behaviors.
- Candidate Kobach wins the primary. He’s an interesting character: PhD in political science from Oxford, Yale Law Degree, and campaigned for governor with a machine gun. He’s no slouch, one might even suspect that he’s an exception to the general notion that Republican elected officials are second-raters, but he’s also a big target and representative of an ideology for which Kansans may not have much fondness.
- But Bollier has her own primary competition, and while her war chest may make her the favorite, there are no guarantees. What if she loses? Her competition is Robert Tillman, who has little experience in winning campaigns. If he wins the primary, that may guarantee the GOP this seat.
- And if Bollier wins, as a former Republican she may be seen as an apostate – or as a stomachable alternative to either Kobach or Marshall.
In the end, the Kansas Senate race may be the closest thing to a true referendum on Republican politics in 2020. The two most likely Republican candidates represent far right conservatives, and if Bollier survives the primary and then wins the Senate, this may be a decisive step in the repudiation of the current Republican Party.
On the other hand, a victory by the GOP isn’t necessarily a victory for the ideology, especially if it’s a razor thin victory. A big victory, sure, the GOP rides high in Kansas – but I’m not expecting that. I expect Bollier to make this a close race regardless of the identify of her opponent.
But using money as the metric seems dubious.
