Last week Kentucky held its primaries plus a special election for a seat in the state’s Senate. For those who like to prognosticate from data, even flimsy data such as small local special elections, this data from the home of Senator Mitch “Moscow” McConnell (R-KY) might prove interesting, as the Democrat wins over the Republican. More importantly, this had been a Republican seat:
Steve Benen helpfully notes President Trump carried this district by 12 points in 2016.
That said, using small local elections as goat guts, as it were, is a chancy business. Perhaps Ferko was personally disliked by the District 26 voters, perhaps a scandal erupted: putting too much emphasis on a result like this can result in disappointment.
But Senator McConnell must find the loss of a local seat that may have been considered safe surprising. His own opponent in his reelection run was confirmed in the primary to be Amy McGrath, who bested her closest opponent, State Senator Charles Booker, by less than 3 points, and Democratic propaganda making its way to my mailbox suggests McConnell is currently behind in their polls. Whether Booker’s loss to McGrath hurts McGrath with Booker supporters remains to be seen.
I don’t put a whole lot of stock in the outcome of the local contest, but it may be indicative of an imminent earthquake in Kentucky.
