As of last night, the Wuhan virus, now known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, has taken more than 1700 lives – 900 since last I mentioned this. Some countries have shut down economic links with China, and I think this incident illustrates a weakness of the free trade concept pushed by libertarians and many Republicans of 20 years ago.
Free trade tends to lead to specialization on a national level, as countries who are better at, or have more appropriate resources, concentrate on doing what they do well for export; but other products that don’t fall into that specialization are neglected – after all, you can use your profits from the specialization to buy all that other stuff. Or, more bluntly, those domestic industries who find they can’t compete with the foreign competitors get wiped out, while you wipe out the foreign competitors who can’t keep up with you. This all works out great for those who are in the right industries, or cut sweet heart deals with the government to get bought out as they find they can’t compete. And everyone important is happy in both the public and private sectors.
Right up until economic links are cut for non-economic reasons. While war is a popular reason for terminating those links, it’s also something that we can, with some effort, control, either through negotiation, or by kicking out the obstreperous individuals.
But when it comes to disease, we’re not nearly as much in control. Sure, we can and do work on it, trying to develop vaccines and cures, but none of this is guaranteed, and, barring unexpected miracles, it takes time. I think most of us understand that in the abstract, but NewScientist (8 February 2020) brings it home with this simple paragraph:
Even if the virus remains largely in China, there would be global consequences. According to Michael Osterholm at the University of Minnesota and his team, 153 crucial drugs, from blood pressure pills to stroke treatment, are mostly made in China, and there are fears the virus could affect their production and export.
Profits are great, profits are wonderful – right up until we look like a mastodon stuck in the La Brea tarpits. I fear that we may be finding that NAFTA and its ilk have lured us into a situation where our international economic ties, which I generally view favorably as being detrimental to the more war-like inclinations among us, may turn out to have a nasty downside that not many analysts foresaw – or, at least, never mentioned in my hearing way back when the rubber hit the road and Clinton signed NAFTA.
If you’re dependent on medicine to get by, you may want to check where it’s produced. I don’t advocate hoarding – I’d probably hypothetically get in trouble – but it’s always best to be informed so that, if necessary, you can consult with your doc about alternatives before you need them.
And I’d sure like to hear if your doctor has even thought about this aspect.
