For all the yelling, in the electoral world the rubber hits the road when the people vote. That’s when the real measurements of their temperament occurs, and it’s the little votes leading up to the big one in November 2020 that lets partisans calibrate their campaigns, politicians make plans based on public popularity of the goals of those plans, and pundits measure the accuracy of their predictions.
Hah. Just kidding on that last one.
Three states are holding gubernatorial elections this year, in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky, none of which may be characterized as bastions of liberal Democrats, even if John Bel Edwards, the defending incumbent in Louisiana, is a Democrat. This makes them possible bellwethers of the country, not only for the big 2020 Election, but also for the future of the Impeachment Inquiry and potential actual impeachment and conviction.
And what I find interesting is that President Trump is beginning to take an interest in these races. Consider this:
….a Nancy Pelosi/Chuck Schumer Democrat (John Bel Edwards), who does nothing but stymie all of the things we are doing to Make America Great Again. Don’t be fooled, John Bel Edwards will NEVER be for us. Early voting has already started! @LAGOP
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 1, 2019
By tweet, he’s made himself a direct part of the Louisiana contest, and associated himself with the two named Republicans, whether they like it or not (judging from their web sites, they did).
He’s also endorsing in the Mississippi contest:
….He loves our Military and supports our Vets! Democrat Jim Hood will never give us his vote, is anti-Trump and pro-Crooked Hillary. Get Out and Vote for Tate Reeves on November 5th. He has my Complete & Total Endorsement!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2019
Trump has actually visited Kentucky to campaign in support of defending incumbent Governor Matt Bevin, who I recall winning a vastly improbable victory four years ago. Trump’s visit may have been in response to polls showing substantial disapproval of Bevin’s performance back in May.
Will these endorsements work for Trump, or backfire? Does he realize that even a close loss for the Democrats in these three contests would signal that his popularity is fading?
And it would also signal the loss of patience by the American people for the Republican ideology, which has sounded so good (cut taxes, cut taxes!), yet been so disappointing in practice.
These contests may end up deciding how Democrats approach the question of impeachment as well as the 2020 elections. Keep an eye on them and how the Democrats react. The first one is in just a few days, the other two are in November.
