Now that the Trump Administration is firmly into its third year of operation, the question of continued employment must be intruding on the consciousness of those members of his Cabinet who are not independently wealthy nor addicted to power, which probably excludes Secretaries Mnuchin and Ross. Why? Because a second term for President Trump, while not impossible, certainly seems unlikely given his current approval / disapproval ratings.
Currently on the hot seat appears to be Secretary of State Pompeo, formerly a Representative from Kansas. Let’s have WaPo summarize:
President Trump has dismissed the prospect of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo leaving his post to run for a Senate seat, even as Pompeo has signaled that he is open to the possibility.
In an interview with CBS’s “Face The Nation” slated to air Sunday ahead of the Super Bowl, Trump said Pompeo told him he was not leaving his current position and voiced confidence that he would not bolt to pursue a Senate seat in Kansas.
“I asked him the question the other day. He says he’s absolutely not leaving. I don’t think he’d do that. And he doesn’t want to be lame duck,” said Trump.
The Washington Post reported last month that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) personally courted Pompeo to consider running in a telephone call, according to two people familiar with the conversation. Pompeo later confirmed the discussion.
Why would McConnell and the Kansas GOP want Pompeo, a former Representative from Kansas, to run for the Senate? Because Kansas, once the GOP’s Midwest crown jewel, has suddenly become precarious. The Kansas executive office was lost to the Democrats in 2018, and although a 5 point victory may not seem like much of a gap, the previous GOP victory gap was more than 3 points, leading to the suggestion that 8% of the electorate switched from supporting the Republicans to the Democrats in 2018. Add in the fact that four GOP state legislators recently switched their allegiance to the Democratic Party, and that’s gotta add to the case of nerves that the party leadership should be feeling. And then there’s the minor matter of the rejection by the moderates in the Kansas GOP of some party orthodoxy.
That rejection of ideology, which is that lowering taxes will always lead to prosperity and was revoked by the GOP controlled Kansas legislature after Kansas began to wobble economically speaking, was a signal that the leadership of the GOP, embodied in then-governor and prime mover of the tax reduction Brownback, had become separated from the moderate wing to a degree larger than was tolerable. In other words, they were true believers, rather than hardened empiricists.
But this leads to another observation. The GOP nominee for the governorship was Kris Kobach, who managed to lose in a heavily conservative state. He is also known as an extremist anti-immigrant warrior and a power-monger, as was documented numerous times. An extremist rejected by the Kansas electorate.
And so who is Mike Pompeo? To the right is the estimation from OnTheIssues of his ideological position. This could be interpreted as another right-wing ideologist. That suggests that the Senate seat up for grabs, which is another state-wide seat, much like the governor’s seat, is not a safe seat for a GOP extremist. If Pompeo chooses to leave his Secretary of State post for a run at the Senate, he may find himself unemployed.
And, yet, any reasonable reading of the Presidential tea-leaves of 2020, as premature as it is, suggests President Trump is on a fast track to losing. No matter how much he fulfills his promises to his base, no matter how much he boasts about how well the economy is doing, it’s clear that a majority of the American citizenry disapproves of him and the job he’s doing. Furthermore, it’s difficult to see any upcoming events which would push his negative numbers upside down, while, based on his past performance, it’s quite likely that there’ll be more putrid scandals for him to try cover up and distract from.
And there’s the Special Counsel’s investigation waiting in the background as well. So far, nothing good – for Trump – has come of that.
So Pompeo may be in a bit of a bind as he looks to his future. Of course, he may see nothing but sunlight, either based on non-public information, or the confidence that ideologists often exude because they believe they’re in possession of the truth.
But the Secretary of State may not make it much longer as an official, elected or otherwise.
