CNN is reporting that Senator Cochran (R-MS) is resigning:
Mississippi Republican Sen. Thad Cochran, who chairs the powerful Appropriations Committee, will leave his seat effective April 1, citing his health issues, meaning both US Senate seats in the state will be on the ballot this fall.
“I regret my health has become an ongoing challenge,” Cochran said in a statement. “I intend to fulfill my responsibilities and commitments to the people of Mississippi and the Senate through the completion of the 2018 appropriations cycle, after which I will formally retire from the U.S. Senate.”
Much like Minnesota, this puts both Senate seats up for grabs. In both cases, it means added expenses for the national organizations as they seek to protect seats they currently have.
In Minnesota’s case, Senator Amy Klobuchar is, absent a serious scandal, a safe bet to win re-election. She’s well liked in the state and has a history of public service. If she has higher ambitions, she’s not noised them about.
The Democrat currently warming former Senator Franken’s seat is Tina Smith, the former Lt. Governor appointed to the Senate by Gov. Dayton (himself a former Minnesota Senator[1]). As of yet, I do not believe she’s had an impact on the Minnesota citizenry, but she’s already stated that she’ll be running to retain the seat in November. Whether she’ll face significant competition during the primary or from the Republicans is still to be seen. However, again absent a scandal, if the public opinion continues to run sharply against the Republicans as it does today, Senator Smith has a better than even chance of re-election.
So the pressure is on the Republicans in Mississippi. This is an additional seat that they had hoped not to have to defend this cycle, but will have to do so nonetheless. That means expense, time, and focus.
Worse yet, the other Mississippi Senator, Senator Wicker, is already facing a primary challenge from Chris McDaniels, who is busily clutching President Trump to his bosom. While McDaniels might easily switch his sights to the unoccupied seat, implicit in the challenge of McDaniels is that other far right extremists may step up to challenge for the open seat or Wicker – who I noted in my prior post regarding McDaniels has already been painted with the liberal brush, despite the fact he has a Trump score of 97%.
In other words, the flakes may be replaced with the whack-jobs. I suppose it depends on how candidates are selected in Mississippi – which happens to be primaries. Who shows up for primaries? Generally, the confirmed ideologist, although my sense is that when times seem desperate, the general voter may show up as well.
And then comes the general election. While the election for Cochran’s seat is technically a special election, the date of the election is the same as the usual mid-term elections, so the latter’s dynamic applies, not the former’s. Add in the current Democratic fervor, and it becomes a question of whether Democratic voters can push back Trump’s margin of victory in 2016 in Europe, which was nearly 18 percentage points. Picking up 10 points is not impossible – and would win them the race.
Long ways to November, a lot of time for scandal, and a lot of time to spend money defending what the Republicans probably think shouldn’t need defending. Another step on the way to rebuilding a respectable conservative party.
1Appropos of nothing, but “Minnesota Senator” reminds me that, prior to moving to Minnesota, the Minnesota Twins were the Washington Senators.
