CNN is reporting that North Korea has been writing letters to various nations across the world:
In an open letter addressed to parliaments in a number of countries, North Korea has declared itself a “full-fledged nuclear power” and accuses US President Donald Trump of “trying to drive the world into a horrible nuclear disaster.”
Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop called the message “unprecedented,” noting that North Korea usually chooses different means to communicate.
Bishop and Australian Prime Minister Turnbull think they know what it means.
Both Bishop and Turnbull said Friday they believe the letter shows that North Korea is getting desperate as the US and its allies ramp up sanctions on the rogue regime.
“I see it as evidence that the collective strategy of imposing maximum diplomatic and economic pressure through sanctions on North Korea is working,” Bishop said.
If this were so, I’d expect more uproar from North Korea, though. Michael Madden on 38 North reports on the recent second plenary session of the 7th Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) Central Committee. There didn’t seem to be chaos or even a lot of concern.
After the second plenary meeting of the 7th WPK Central Committee, the DPRK leadership has subtly and gradually shifted its media messaging and programming (i.e. the propaganda) away from some of the more heated rhetoric and activity[12] that we have seen during the last six months. Much of Kim Jong Un’s report to the Central Committee and many of the personnel changes to the central party power organizations focused on the economy. While the North will still formulate and release interesting statements, and we might see one or two more ballistic missile tests, the DPRK’s political culture is probably moving on to the KPA’s winter training cycle and preparations for the cold, resource-challenged winter. While one does not doubt what “single-hearted unity” and “Mallima speed” can accomplish, there are limits.
The results of the second plenary meeting are an unfolding event. Kim Jong Un and his image makers have met us halfway by holding a large gathering and revealing who was appointed to what power body. But Pyongyang watchers will need subsequent state media reporting to determine where some of these officials have landed and what policy areas consume their daily lives. It would be unwise, however, and possibly dangerous to read these personnel appointments as simply a matter of reshuffling deck chairs on a sinking. Several elderly officials have been effectively retired. And if the DPRK were embarking on a course of action that might result in the country’s total annihilation or even the strategic shock of a surgical strike, then such things as policy statements and personnel shuffles would be unnecessary. Individuals, and nation-states, with a death wish don’t make long-term plans.
The shift in emphasis to the economy would seem to indicate a recognition of the sanctions, but not an incipient move towards capitulation of any sort.
I think an alternate reading is far more likely than that of the optimists in Australia. Kim obviously recognizes the turmoil Trump has stirred up world-wide with his amateur hour stunts, as well as the obvious ease with which he can be manipulated – he doesn’t have the iron will of, say, Hillary Clinton, Obama, or Bush. Kim may believe this is the time to strike in order to weaken or even break old alliances that otherwise endanger his regime. This letter is written to subtly highlight these worries about Trump, making world leaders reconsider their ties with the United States.
And thus strengthening his position, as well as potentially increase his prestige. In his area of the world, prestige is more important than democracy, and that’s what he’s trying to increase with these moves.
