Michael Elleman on 38 North reports on the latest North Korean stride forward in missile technology, from the launch of August 28:
The presence of a PBV [Post-Boost Vehicle] on the Hwasong-12 is just a hypothesis for now, although reports that the missile “broke into three pieces” are consistent with PBV engine failure. As the PBV separates from the main booster, its engine should activate and accelerate the reentry vehicle to the pre-defined velocity. If the PBV’s engine fails to initiate, and the reentry vehicle separates from the PBV, all three components (main booster, PBV and warhead) follow an approximately similar trajectory. To a distant radar, the missile appears to separate into three disparate pieces at the end of boost for no obvious reason. Without the added velocity provided by a properly functioning PBV, the reentry vehicle along with the main stage and PBV, land in the ocean 2,700 km from the launch site—well short of the missile’s maximum range. In other words, the dead weight of the non-functioning PBV, if it was fully fuelled, is equivalent to launching the missile with a 1,200 to 1,300 kg payload, as described above.
While it is impossible to know with certainty why the most recent test flew only 2,700 km, if it was the result of a failed PBV, its use on North Korea’s long-range missiles is ominous. It is another sign that Pyongyang is deadly serious about developing and fielding nuclear-tipped missiles capable of striking the US mainland, and critical US military bases in the Pacific Ocean. North Korea has much work remaining—perhaps a year or two—before it matures the technologies and systems needed to credibly threaten the US.
And if the North Koreans launch a real nuclear shot against the United States, then what happens? We return the volley in spades, and North Korea ceases to exist.
And so why is this sort of thing considered a success by the North Koreans? Because the Americans have consistently failed to live up to agreement obligations? They will never be able to overwhelm our defenses with an attack, while we could lob nuclear missiles at them all day. Do they really think they could fire on us without suffering a devastating return volley?
Are they really that self-delusional?
It’s true, this is quite disturbing and quite a gamble by Kim. But I still think this is mostly about prestige for the North Koreans, and advancing the cult of Kim. The problem for the United States, no, the world, is to decide if we can live with a brutal dictatorship, or to bring this particular monarchy to an end without the usual devastating wars that accompany such terminations.
