There’s been some reports that President Trump will determine when his goal of the unconditional surrender of Iran has been achieved. In accordance with his pathological narcissism, he feels that he must be in control of this, and for … I hesitate to say good reason, but it’s logical in context.
- Iran is not likely to unconditionally surrender anytime soon. While the general citizenry may have many members in favor of said surrender, they don’t make the decisions. The government is the dominant social prestige ladder in Iran, bringing many material and psychological advantages to members; and it requires a putative belief in Allah. So long as the leaders decree no surrender, and enough folks agree they speak for the clerics and the divine, Iran’s defenders will fight; and Iran’s military, honed in the Iran-Iraq War, has a reputation and capability worth respecting.
- If my reader has consumed The Art of War, by Sun Tzu, they may remember this, paraphrased: An aggressor, in order to win, must crush their enemy and achieve all of their goals; a defender must merely survive. So long as Iran can give Trump the finger, he has not won. He must protect his ego, it’s what his psychosis demands, and if that means he must redefine unconditional surrender, he will until he can quickly achieve that definition and remove himself from a situation that threatens to destroy him, even if only psychologically. I think the Iranian government understands this, and thus we see the CNN headlines Iran’s new supreme leader is still nowhere to be seen and Iran begins laying mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say. The longer Iran pulls the American nose, the greater Iranian prestige, not so incidentally damaged by the losses of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the earlier loss of General Qasem Soleimanito an American drone strike, once the war is terminated and Iran, perhaps temporarily under American control, gets control back. Trump is perceived as their enemy, and they’ll happily humiliate the bully; it brings them prestige.
- The selection of the son of the late Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is congruent with the above theme: defy the bully. Trump tried to decree he would select the leader, and he was ignored. He’s reached for the stars and was kneed in the groin by the Iranians. But there’s more going on, I think. I expect the Iranians are eager for a ground invasion, as that’ll give them more and more chances of inflicting defeats and deaths on the Americans. Enough losses and the Iranians will hope Americans will toss Trump out of office; as that would be a healthy move on our part regardless of Iranian desires, they might get their wish. My wish is we should do it before any more American lives are lost.
- The mining of the Strait of Hormuz also serves as an attack on Trump, as jumps in the price of oil will be blamed on him, and not unfairly.
This war could become a long and painful tragedy. If Trump backs off too quickly, his tender ego will suffer damage, so he won’t leave immediately. But suppose an Iranian drone takes many lives, then Trump might feel it necessary to execute a ground invasion, and we’ll risk being in Iran for years.
This does not look good. MAGA had better run Trump out of the White House or they risk their own severe damage. MAGA pundits had best meditate on that doom.
