Yes, The Environment Is Degrading Rapidly
True on so many levels, but we’ll stick with the political. Between dismaying jobs reports (“U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%“, and that’s my bold), an Administration entering a terminal phase, a war only thought desirable by fundamentalist evangelicals (Andrew Sullivan, paywall), the frantic clinging to tariffs by a President who has already been rebuffed on the subject by SCOTUS, and now news that President Trump’s erstwhile ally President Putin may be feeding military intelligence to Iran, Republican Senators up for re-election must be feeling the pressure, especially at open campaign stops where irate citizens, possibly jobless and hopeless about the future, with children in the military and facing a war where government officials with names like Hegseth and Trump are careless of the lives of those in the military, and not under the Senate’s control.
Look for tensions on the campaign trail to continue to rise as even safe Republican seats become endangered.
And Then To Particulate
Continuing the cereal, coated in milk to help the gravel go down easily.
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- Much to my shame, I missed the March 3rd primary results in Arkansas. Incumbent Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) won his primary, as did bankrupt farmer Hallie Shoffner (D-AR), both in convincing manner. However, Cotton’s vote count was roughly twice that of Shoffner’s. Unless a poll says different, I expect Cotton to coast to victory.
- Rep Crockett (D-TX), who lost in the Democratic primary for the Texas Senate seat to James Talarico (D-TX), demonstrates proper behavior:
Crockett called on the party to unite behind Talarico heading into what is expected to be a top race to watch this fall.
“With the primary behind us, Democrats must rally around our nominees and win,” she said. “I’m committed to doing my part and will continue working to elect democrats up and down the ballot.” [NBC News]
- Emerson College has polls for Georgia. In the Republican primary, Rep Collins is only outpaced by Undecideds, 30%-40%. Maybe it’s too early in the political season, or maybe Republican voters are as unimpressed by the extremists as I. Rep Edwards has a long ways to go at 16%, and retired football coach Derek Dooley’s only at 10%. Meanwhile, the shark playing the accordion in the background is incumbent Senator Ossoff (D), who has everyone beat but has not broken the 50% mark. Not that he has to….
- Pan Atlantic Research may claim multiple decades of work, but I’ve not heard of them and neither has Wikipedia, which is suspicious. But their results for Maine seem more sensible than other polls; they have Graham Platner (D) in the mix, but not dominating as did polls from other organizations. Unfortunately for Pan Atlantic, those other organizations consist of the outstanding pollster University of New Hampshire, which has Platner with 30+ point leads (see the earlier link to Maine). The thing about future forecasting is you don’t know who’s wrong and who’s right until the label future becomes invalid….
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Senator Daines (R) of Montana suddenly withdrew from his primary and announced his retirement, in an unusual manner that he has confirmed was planned. He took those actions only minutes before the primary filing period closed, thus denying other politicians of the two major persuasions the opportunity to file for the primary based on the changed circumstances; apparently minor party members and independents can file regardless. Steve Benen has more details here. It appears the front-runner is now the US Attorney for Montana, Kurt Alme (R), and he is endorsed by Trump and state officials such as Governor Gianforte (R), for what it’s worth.For me, the real question is whether Daines leaving the race will elevate former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar’s (I) candidacy to viability. He wasn’t on my radar until now, but Montanans comfortable with a Senator Daines (R) may not be comfortable with a sneaky Senator Alme (R), and Bodnar does have statewide exposure; I’m not so sure the Democratic candidates have that. I do not happen to know the positions of either Bodnar (a little digging yielded nothing beyond boilerplate) or Alme, and I look forward to hearing of any polls. I did get this from the Daily Montanan:
Montana’s 2026 Senate race has been considered safely Republican by analysts, but within hours of Daines’ announcement, at least one analyst moved the senate seat into a “lean Republican,” category.
I’d go along with that.
That’s it for this bowl of Cap’n Crunch. Is that still a serial, or just a novella?
