But Wait
After my relative disaster of the 2024 Senate Campaign posts – let’s not review, for example, the trumpeted Selzer & Co poll at the end of the race which claimed Harris had a 3 point lead over Trump in Iowa, followed by the news that Trump won Iowa by 13+ points – I had considered skipping this summary for us regular folks who work in non-political jobs and don’t have time for this.
But I keep running across news, so what the heck, hey?
The GOP in The Senate Isn’t Going To Lose That Many Seats … Right?
Right. That’s what I think. Why bother wasting my time on this? They have 53 when only 50 is required, with VP Vance voting to break ties. Throwing four seats away, even in the dysfunctional Senate, would be horrible incompetence on the Republicans’ part, and require voters to develop a trust for the Democrats that doesn’t seem to be there, and the Democrats’ elements of autocracy and arrogance are nearly a match for the Republicans’.
But then there’s this:
In case the above disappears, it’s a tweet from InteractivePolls:
For the first time, GOP strategists are telling Axios that losing the Senate — where Republicans have a 53-47 majority — is a distinct possibility.
According to GOP internal polling, even deep-red states like Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio are now in play
Top GOP strategists acknowledge that immigration and the economy — the two issues that drove Trump’s win in 2024 — are now liabilities.
“A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate,” one GOP operative who’s reviewed internal polling told Axios. “Today, I would have to tell you it’s far less certain.”
The Republicans have been acting rather nutty these days. Amateur hour, some might say. Like me. Although Senate Majority Leader Thune (R-ND) does not seem to like President Trump and may try to hold the Senate to only reasonable actions.
The Senate could change hands.
Current News
There are always retirements imminent and announced among the one hundred members of the Senate, unless your name is Chuck Grassley (R-IA). The current list of announced retirements:
- Senator and former Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY)
- Senator Ernst (R-IA)
- Senator Lummis (R-WY)
- Senator Tuberville (R-AL), who is running for Governor of Alabama.
- Senator Smith (D-MN); additionally, Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) has announced a run for Governor of Minnesota in 2026, so she’ll be required to resign from the Senate if she wins. Since her current Senate term is until 2031, a loss in the primary or general election would not result in her necessarily leaving the Senate.
- Senator Durbin (D-IL)
- Senator Peters (D-MI)
- Senator Shaheen (D-NH)
What About Polling?
The collapse of FiveThirtyEight does put a dent in resources for polling. Along with FiveThirtyEight, Monmouth University Polling announced it was shutting down, as did Selzer & Co, source of the Iowa Poll. This is all depressing for folks like me, but then again only one poll really counts, and that’s the election itself.
After the 2024 disaster in polling, these service terminations may not be that important.
Other Sources
Inveterate political observer Matthew Yglesias thinks the Democrats have a chance to take Congress:
The Tennessee special, by contrast, was a real election with real budgets and some earned media attention. And Behn, though by most accounts a charismatic person and effective public speaker, was a genuinely terrible candidate for the district. Unlike Zohran Mamdani, she declined to disavow earlier support for defunding the police and had a record of inflammatory statements that made it clear she wasn’t just talking about hiring more social workers.
If Democrats can put up 13 points of overperformance in a meaningfully contested House race with a candidate who is terribly positioned to win crossover voters, that suggests Republicans are in deep trouble.
Deep enough to realistically put a Senate majority within reach, if Democrats come up with good nominees.
Nate Silver, founder of the late FiveThirtyEight, has a nuanced position that I read as uneasy:
Just in case this isn’t clear, today’s newsletter is meant to be descriptive, not proscriptive. Yes, I agree with those who say Democrats ought to place a heavy emphasis on “electability,” especially in states like Texas. In fact, the greater the threat that you think Trump is to the future of American democracy, the less you can afford to nominate only candidates who pass a progressive purity test. I also agree that moderation usually helps. Not necessarily being a down-the-line centrist, but at least vibing with your local electorate rather than the MSNBC (excuse me, MS Now) audience.
And David Shor has some data on issues here.
Index
| Alabama | Alaska | Arkansas | Colorado | Delaware | Florida | Georgia | Idaho | Illinois | Iowa | Kansas | Kentucky | Louisiana | Maine | Massachusetts | Michigan | Minnesota | Mississippi | Montana | Nebraska | New Hampshire | New Jersey | New Mexico | North Carolina | Ohio | Oklahoma | Oregon | Rhode Island | South Carolina | South Dakota | Tennessee | Texas | Virginia | West Virginia | Wyoming |
Alabama
One-term Senator, walking scandal, and exemplar of ignorance Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) has announced he will retire from the Senate, choosing to run in the Alabama gubernatorial race.
Among Republicans, Alabama AG Steve Marshall is running for this seat, and he’s also held various positions in government related to the legal field. His strongest primary competition may be Rep Barry Moore, who sports an endorsement from President Trump. There are other Republican candidates, but they don’t seem to have relevant experience or potential to challenge Marshall or Moore.
On the Democratic side there seems little to recommend them. It’s Alabama.
Alaska
Senator Sullivan (R) is the incumbent and has not announced any deviation from a re-election run. Glancing over his record, Sullivan migrated from an anti-Trump position to a pro-Trump position; whether Alaskan voters will find this repellent is an open question. Trump has endorsed him.
Former Rep Mary Peltola (D-AL) has announced she’s running for the seat.
Alaska is using an unusual jungle primary format from which the top four vote-getters progress to the general election. I suspect this format gives the former Representative a slight advantage out of the gate. Here’s the most recent poll I’ve seen, which I interpret as giving Peltola a slight lead.
Arkansas
Senator Tom Cotton (R) is the incumbent, and seems likely to win. Is he pro-Trump? Does it matter in Arkansas? His strongest challenger may be Dr. Ethan Dunbar, who has served as Mayor of Lewisville.
The Senator has been endorsed by Trump.
BUT while prepping this post for publication, I ran across a Daily Kos post from … uh … Maerkwurdigeliebe. Yeah, no kidding. They’re boosting the other candidate registered in the Democratic primary, Hallie Shoffner, and they state that Senator Cotton’s team appears suddenly worried.
Her message spread. A carefully thought out, fact based progressive platform that spoke directly to the problems of average Arkansans quickly grew her war chest to over a million dollars. Something never seen in modern Democratic politics in Arkansas.
Helping Shoffner connect with her fellow Arkansans is that she recently lost her rice farm to the auction block.
Does Shoffner have a chance? I don’t know. It’s worth keeping an eye out.
Colorado
Senator John Hickenlooper (D) is the incumbent. There’s competition with relevant experience in the form of Julie Gonzales (D), a member of the Colorado Senate; from the Republicans, Mark Baisley is also a member of the Colorado Senate and a former member of the Colorado House of Representatives and Janak Joshi, another former member of the Colorado House of Representatives.
Delaware
Senator Chris Coons (D) will be defending his seat in 2026 in a safe Democratic state.
Florida
Senator Ashley Moody (R), appointed to her position by Governor DeSantis (R), must win a special election scheduled for November if she wishes to continue in this role. Her primary is filled with unfamiliar names; in the Democratic primary will be found Alexander Vindman, which should be familiar to readers.
Georgia
Senator Jon Ossoff (D) defends his seat for the first time since defeating then-incumbent Senator David Perdue (R). He must have been encouraged by the recent Democratic victories in Georgia Public Service Commission special elections and the 121st House District special election. President Trump’s incompetence must also encourage the Senator and his team. And he may have built an advantage through constituent service.
The Republican primary is filled with unfamiliar names. It appears Derek Dooley, a retired football coach of the Tennessee Volunteers, is trying to take the Tuberville route into the Senate, but the AP reports he claims he hasn’t voted in decades, so voters will have to decide if he’s a serious candidate or just another trophy hunter. Rep Earl Carter and Rep Mike Collins are also in the primary, implying the availability of at least some experience; whether their politics are acceptable is quite another matter.
The primary is scheduled for May 19th.
Idaho
Much like the Arkansas race, incumbent Idaho Senator Jim Risch (R) seems to have an assured reelection.
Illinois
Incumbent Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) is retiring at the end of this term, which is a thirty-year run. This has triggered a scramble in both parties to win their respective primaries, and the names are not familiar.
It seems likely that the Democratic candidate will be favored in the general election in this Democratic state.
Iowa
Senator Ernst’s (R-IA) imminent retirement leaves open a seat in a State that has backed President Trump three times, but now seems uneasy as his trade wars and tariffs have hurt Iowa’s farmers.
The Democrats are fielding, among others, two state Senators, Josh Turek and Zach Wahls.
The Republicans lead candidate is Rep Ashley Hinson, endorsed by President Trump. The Representative should be considered the front-runner until polls suggest differently.
Kansas
Incumbent Roger Marshall (R) does not appear to have significant opposition in his re-election effort. The Democrats’ most experienced candidate appears to be Patrick Schmidt, a Kansas state senator of three years experience.
The smart money is on Marshall.
Kentucky
Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell (R), long-time leader of the Republican caucus, is retiring at the end of this term. There are a couple of Democratic names running in the primary, Charles Booker and Amy McGrath, but so far there’s little reason to think they’ll win an upset.
On the Republican side, billionaire Elon Musk has donated $10 million to a superPAC supporting Nate Morris, suggesting Mr Morris is the Republican front-runner.
Louisiana
Senator Bill Cassidy (R) voted to convict President Trump at his second impeachment trial, and, in revenge, the President has endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) as a primary opponent. Whether or not Louisiana Republicans are paying attention is not yet clear. Joe Cunningham of RedState thinks Cassidy will lose to Letlow, but Republicans in general are in such big trouble that it may not matter, and many commentators either don’t understand that, or won’t admit to it.
Maine
Republican Senator Collins (R-ME) will be running for a sixth Senate term in 2026. Maine has recently been afflicted with ICE agents, and, given the inevitable association of this affliction with the Republicans, can she continue to convince Mainers that she represents there best interests? Will her constituent service help her over this hump?
But she’ll have some money to make the effort, as the Wall Street Journal reports (paywall):
A group aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) is planning to spend tens of millions of dollars to protect centrist Sen. Susan Collins of Maine in this year’s midterms, even as President Trump has repeatedly criticized her for breaking with the party.
I’ve never seen it mentioned, but I get the feeling Thune doesn’t much care for the President. Thune’s tenure in the Senate started long before Trump stuck his head in an open door, and I wonder if Thune resents the Mendacity Machine riding to prominence on, well, mendacity.
Incidentally, Senator Collins is 73 at the moment. Her primary Democratic opponent, Governor Janet Mill (D-ME), is yet older at 78. The boomers aren’t letting go, are they?
Massachusetts
Senator Markey (D), winner of the 2013 special election to fill Senator Kerry’s (D) seat after his selection as Secretary of State, won again in 2014 and 2020. He is facing a primary challenge from inexperienced William Gates and Rep Seth Moulton, a former Marine. How serious are these challenges? It’s hard to say at this stage. If he survives the primary, I have to say there are no familiar names from the Republicans.
But Massachusetts sent Scott Brown (R-MA) to the Senate in a 2010 special election, so it’s not impossible for Republicans to win here, although they have a very steep hill to climb, given the antics of President Trump and Republican members of Congress.
Mr Brown lost his reelection effort in 2014.
Michigan
The unexpected retirement announcement of Senator Peters (D) has opened a scramble to replace him. This race features former Rep Mike Rogers (R), who lost the race for the other Michigan Senate seat in 2024 to Elissa Slotkin, by 3/10s of a point, so Rogers must be considered the front-runner until polls prove differently.
However, Democrats are not destitute of qualified candidates. Rep Haley Stevens, seven years in the House, should be considered the leader of the Democratic primary, and if she should falter then state senator Mallory McMorrow offers some experience.
Minnesota
The retirement announcement of single-term Senator Smith (D) caught the State’s political world off-balance, but they seem to have recovered quickly as Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) and Rep Angie Craig (D) have signed up for the Democratic primary. Rep Craig probably has more name recognition than Flanagan, and it is positive, I believe.
On the Republican side there are a number of hopefuls, but the contenders are probably Royce White (R), who lost to Senator Klobuchar (D) by 16 points in 2024, and newcomer and national sports reporter Michele Tafoya, who also worked at local news earlier in her career. Whether the previous career experience translates into an initial boost in this race remains to be seen. Trump’s endorsement? He’s endorsed Mike Lindell, the conspiratorial My Pillow guy.
However, Republicans are struggling in this state with the affliction of ICE on Minneapolis. A Republican victory would be indicative of either a Democratic foulup of monumental proportions, or corruption of the election process.
Mississippi
Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is facing Ty Pinkins (I) and one of a collection of unknown Democrats. At present there’s little reason to think Hyde-Smith won’t be returned to the Senate in 2027.
Montana
Senator Daines (R) is running for reelection and facing little name opposition; the closest candidate to prominence may be Reilly Neill (D), a former member of the Montana House of Representatives.
Nebraska
Senator Ricketts (R) is running for reelection, facing a primary challenge from unknown, to me, Edward Dunn, and then Dan Osborn (I) in the general election. Mr Osborn ran in the 2024 election against Senator Fischer (R), losing by more than 6 points, a disappointment given polling had him closer than that.
The Democrats do not appear to be running a primary for this seat, or at least no candidates have registered. In 2024 the Democrats endorsed Mr Osborn; perhaps they shall do so again.
New Hampshire
Incumbent Senator Shaheen (D) is declining to run again, so this is another scramble in this independently-minded State. On the Democratic side Rep Pappas has registered for the primary.
The Republicans appear to be into retreads here. Former Senator John Sununu (R-NH) is running for his old seat; also, former Senator Brown (formerly R-MA, now R-NH) has registered for the primary. In case readers are wondering, John Sununu is the brother of Governor Chris Sununu. Mr Sununu has also been endorsed, for good or for ill, by President Trump.
I expect the burdens of being a Republican with a madman as head of the Party to weigh down Mr Sununu, with Mr Brown not being a real factor. Democrat Rep Pappas seems likely to win, but it’ll be close.
New Jersey
Senator Booker (D) is running for re-election, and so far the primaries contain no noteworthy names.
New Mexico
Senator Luján (D) is running for re-election, and so far the primaries contain no noteworthy names. In fact, Joe Monahan claims there are no candidates from the Republican Party, although Ballotpedia is listing Benjamin Luna as registered in the Republican primary. However, Mr. Luna is apparently also running for a seat in the New Mexico House of Representatives, so perhaps Mr Monahan isn’t taking Mr Luna seriously.
If all this is true, the Democrats have shed some of the stress they should rightfully be bearing.
North Carolina
In purplish North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis (R) is vacating his seat, having infuriated the President. The primaries are on March 3, and the likely winners, moving on to the general election, are former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley (R), who is endorsed by President Trump, and former Governor Roy Cooper (D), the latter no longer governor due to term-limits, but having won his last contest for governor by 4.5 points – an impressive margin in this divided State.
I expect this to be a close race. Will North Carolinians give up on the Republicans and try on the Democrats for a while? I’ve gotta say the North Carolina Democrats keep having broken hearts.
Ohio
When the Trump / Vance ticket won in 2024, Senator Vance was forced to give up his Senate seat to take up the vice-presidency. His replacement is Jon Husted (R), appointed by Governor DeWine (R), and his special appointed term ends on January 3, 2027.
The Senator is running at the same time as 2026 election in a special election for the same seat, and has two opponents in the Republican primary, which suggests there’s some portion of the Ohio GOP who doesn’t like his politics – or himself. Do the voters like him or not? Or is he another non-entity who is doing little more than voting?
Could it have to do with campaign contributions from billionaire Les Wexner, whose name is in the Epstein Files? Senator Husted voted not to release the Epstein Files.
In the Democratic primary I see former Senator Sherrod Brown (D), along with several unknown names. Having an experienced candidate like Brown gives the Democrats a big advantage, but whether he can hold it together remains to be seen. Here is The New York Times summation of Senate polls for Ohio, showing Senator Husted with a surmountable lead.
Oklahoma
The incumbent is Senator Markwayne Mullin (R), who won his 2023 special election race by 25 points. He’s being primaried, but the opponents do not appear to be a serious threat, and neither do the Democrats.
It’s Oklahoma.
Oregon
Senator Merkley (D) is running for reelection to a seat he last won by 17 points. I have seen no hint of scandal or of Oregon revolting against his stewardship of his seat, although he does have one primary challenger lacking experience. The same applies to the Republicans registered so far.
At the moment I see this as a safe run for Merkley.
Rhode Island
Incumbent Senator Jack Reed (D) is running for yet another term; in 2020 he won reelection by 33 points. None of his opponents appear to have applicable experience. No drama here, so far.
South Carolina
Incumbent Senator Lindsay Graham (R) is running yet again. Having won in 2020 by 10 points, he is certainly not invulnerable, but his fourteen opponents, at last count, do not appear to have any applicable political experience. Not a one.
I’ve noticed that Senator Graham, whatever his true feelings might be, does not publicly associate with President Trump much these days. He may have come to understand that the Trump brand is terribly toxic, and Graham is working to minimize that damage. But his political experience dates back to the late 1990s, which means MAGA voters may view him with suspicion as a denizen of the mythic swamp. Again, his opponents have not revealed any political experience, if I may be so kind as to rephrase it, so how voters are to pick one to rally behind is beyond me.
South Dakota
Incumbent Senator Mike Rounds (R) is running again. In 2022, he won by 31.4 points, and there’s little reason to believe the South Dakotan won’t be victorious again come this November.
That said, he has a primary opponent and one Democrat registered for the Democratic primary. The latter is Julian Beaudion, a law enforcement professional, so at least South Dakotans looking for alternatives to Senator Rounds can vote for someone with a background in government service. It’s not experience with legislative office, but at least it’s something.
Independent Brian Bengs has an impressive curriculum vitae, with degrees in history, international studies, law, and international law, and service in the Air Force.
Tennessee
Incumbent Senator Haggerty (R) is facing three challengers, but of them only Democrat Diana Onyejiaka is providing a biography, at least to Ballotpedia, and there we learn she has a J.D. and a bachelor’s in political science. Sounds like preparation to me, kudos! Will this be enough to beat Senator Haggerty?
Doubtful. This is Tennessee, nor am I aware of any scandals dogging the Senator.
But you never know until you take your shot. Good luck, Diana Onyejiaka.
Texas
Incumbent Senator Cornyn (R) is facing multiple challenges in his reelection run.
First, there’s the primary. I count seven challengers, including 2020 candidate Virgil Bierschwale, former judge Sara Canady, Rep Wesley Hunt, and, currently thought foremost, Texas AG Ken Paxton, who is notorious for being impeached by his own Party in the Texas House, but not convicted by his Party in the Texas Senate. He seems an arrogant Republican who has so much on so many Texas Senators that he could swagger his way out of conviction, if not the initial impeachment.
But the number of challengers, even in this large State, suggests some dissatisfaction with Senator Cornyn. This J. L. Partners poll from a couple of weeks ago suggests the Senator will see strong competition from Rep Hunt and AG Paxton.
Only three Democrats are registered in the primary, but this is not token opposition. Rep Jasmine Crockett is a national presence as she represents Texas’ 30th Congressional District. James Talarico has relevant education and is currently a Representative in the Texas House, District 52. Ahmad Hassan is a Texas-based businessman and emigre from Egypt.
And we’re not finished, as among the usual independents and libertarians is Ted Brown, a lawyer with relevant education and work experience, along with several other candidates who have not updated Ballotpedia with biographies.
Senator Cornyn won in 2020 by ten points, so he’s not invulnerable. If he’s upset MAGA, he may be in trouble, unless MAGA has shrunk into irrelevancy. And he can’t win without support from allies:
“I told [lawmakers] straight up: South Texas will never be red again,” said Mario Guerrero, the CEO of the South Texas Builders Association, a Trump voter who traveled to Washington last week. [Politico]
If Cornyn is seen as a Trump ally, he may fail to be reelected. And then he may be upset by Crockett or Talarico. Senator Cornyn has a tough row to hoe.
Virginia
Senator Warner (D) will be running for a fourth term, and he has small horde of competitors, but no noteworthy names or even listing relevant experience, no offense. The Senator should retain his position as easily as his previous run, which he won by 13 points.
West Virginia
Republican Senator Capito is looking to be reelected. Her primary contains a number of inexperienced competitors, with only Tom Willis having some relevant experience as he’s worked as a tax lawyer and in the US Tax Court; he has also been seated in the West Virginia Senate since 2024.
On the Democratic side, once again the hopefuls are inexperienced, although Derrick Evans briefly held a seat in the West Virginia House of Delegates, and Jeffrey Kessler has served as a municipal court judge, held other positions in the legal field relevant to this run, and has been a West Virginia State Senate member.
Capito has quite a number of competitors, but, unlike Senator Cornyn of Texas, none appear to be serious threats. Assuming Capito doesn’t get caught up in the anti-Republican wave that has been building, she should be easily reelected, as she was in 2020, when she won by 43 points.
Wyoming
Single-term Senator Cynthia Lummis (R) will retire at the end of this term, saying … she didn’t have it in her to fill out another six-year term after an intense session that got particularly exhausting in the past several weeks.
It’s Wyoming, so whoever wins the Republican primary is probably a sure-fire winner of the general election. However, as an experienced politician, the Republicans will probably miss her far more than any of these “business leaders.” Fortunately for them, Rep Harriet Hageman (R-WY) is reportedly running for the open seat, although she is burdened with a Trump endorsement.
No word on Democratic candidates.
What’s Next?
I hope to post occasional updates with significant news: primary results, news of concern to candidates, maybe even polls.
All from a guy who doesn’t do this for a living and can’t imagine same.
