This goat is being sheared for completeness, as this special election did not result in a “flip.” Back in 2024, a bit over a year ago, incumbent David Yates (D-KY) defeated Calvin Leach (R-KY) for the District 37 State Senate seat in Kentucky, 60.4% to 39.6% – call it a 20 point victory.
A little while later, Yates resigned to take a different job. The special election to fill his seat took place a week ago, featuring Mr Leach again, and Gary Clemons (D). Mr Clemons defeated Mr Leach, and improved on the victory margin – 72.6% to 25.1%, or about 47 points, give or take.
This is in the same district won by Harris, a year ago, by only five points.
So when only 5170 total votes are cast, what does it mean? 41,584 total votes were cast a year ago, so just by eyeball the voter count dropped by nearly 90%. In my eyes, that’s significant and may mean that Mr Leach lacks voter appeal.
I wouldn’t pivot my judgment of the future on this special election.
