The left was disappointed yesterday, as Republican Matt Van Epps beat Democrat Aftyn Behn in the special election in the Seventh District of Tennessee. The victory margin was roughly 8 points, or 15,000 votes. While this is progress, as the previous election was won by the Republican by 22 points, it’s also true that special elections are not a great reflection of the general mood of the electorate.
That makes analysis difficult unless the analyst is on the ground in the district, and I am not. That Emerson College missed by 6 points (their prediction was 48%-46%) is disappointing and suggests they need to work on their adjustments methodology.
Speaker Johnson can stop sweating, now. If the weakest Speaker ever can stop sweating, period.
