I Hope That COT Doesn’t Put You To Sleep

I thought this was interesting:

Sounding the alarm on growing opacity of advanced AI reasoning models. Fortune reporter Beatrice Nolan reported this week on a group of 40 AI researchers, including contributors from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Meta, and Anthropic, that are sounding the alarm on the growing opacity of advanced AI reasoning models. In a new paper, the authors urge developers to prioritize research into “chain-of-thought” (CoT) processes, which provide a rare window into how AI systems make decisions. They are warning that as models become more advanced, this visibility could vanish. [Fortune]

Which is us, which is them? And who is more delicious?

So, is Machine Learning (ML) that much like how humans reason? Mind you[1], there’s formal reasoning, which is difficult and deeply dependent on in-depth understanding context and reality, which in realistic situations is almost impossible; informal reasoning, not guaranteed to lead to correct conclusions but much easier and less dependent on context as much of it is heuristics; and intuitive reasoning, the I just know that is so often bloodily wrong – but has you running from the tiger just because that fern flapped in the breezeless afternoon.

So, if Elon Musk’s worst nightmare arrives, that of the super-intelligent actual AI system, can we understand its thought processes? Or will its reasoning function in such a different manner from the above that we’ll stare at the COT and consider it gibberish?

Hard to say. The fact I can’t imagine another way to reason doesn’t mean it’s not possible, it only means I’m not imaginative. Or, as with calculus, I’m not trying hard enough.


1 And I’m pulling this out of my ass from observation, not from study of psychology, which I always find a frustrating experience.

Word Of The Day

Subrogation:

Subrogation is a term describing the right held by most insurance carriers to legally pursue a third party that caused an insurance loss to an insured. This allows the insurance carrier to recover the amount of the claim it paid to the insured for the loss. [Investopedia]

Noted on a return envelope recently received. I should have taken a photo, I admit. I say admit because I think I suppose to be a bit nonsensical, when read literally.

Error Corrective Culture

The opposite of arrogance, I suppose.

I found myself slowing down to thoughtful speed while reading “I co-wrote the anonymous HHS report on pediatric gender medicine,” by Alex Byrne (WaPo). It wasn’t because it was full of new facts concerning pediatric gender medicine, although no doubt that, for some readers, it had a few.

Rather, it was a reference for the arrogance that continues to wash over our professional culture.

The review is a sober examination of what by any standards are drastic medical interventions for physically healthy minors. It deserves to be read by people of all political leanings. Whether its early critics bothered to do so is unclear.

Mere hours after publication, the president of the American Academy of Pediatrics, Susan Kressly, claimed that the review was undermined by reliance on “a narrow set of data.” A glance at the evidence synthesis (or even just the separate appendix) by anyone familiar with evidence-based medicine would show that this complaint is preposterous. The hypocrisy is blatant: the AAP’s policy statement for the treatment of gender-dysphoric youth is unsupported by its own citations.

That’s disturbing, of course, if true. Hypocrisy is often employed by people who value position, current or desired, over a regard for substantive truth.

But I also wondered about the author of the article, Mr Byrne. Who is he? He’s an MIT professor of philosophy; a glance at Wikipedia shows a short entry, centered, as one might imagine, around transgender issues. Do I take Professor Byrne at face value, or is he after academic fame moreso than truth?

After all, this report was commissioned by the essence of tendentious, frail arrogance itself, the Trump Administration. How does this impact my understanding of this article?

Often, when writing blog posts, I take a position representative of my perceived audience: not an expert, only mildly arrogant, trying to apply common-sense while being aware that common-sense is often, well, wrong[c.s.], especially in the governance arena. I know I don’t know many, many things; I believe reasoning skills in a generally well-meaning populace are deteriorating; I try to be a scientific skeptic (see Skeptical Inquirer subscription); I know I don’t have time to make myself an expert on the subject of any given blog post, but I believe I have something to contribute that is not being mentioned in the conversational circles through which I travel; and more.

This blog post is a quintessential example of much of my blog, then, which, in turn, is aware that the projected reaction to this article, by Byrne, is a quintessential example — yes, yes, I repeated myself purposefully — of much of what is wrong in our culture. From Byrne feeling it necessary to pronounce himself a member of the left

I am hardly a fan of the current administration: I have never voted Republican, and as an academic from Cambridge, Massachusetts, I hold many of the liberal beliefs of my tribe. That includes support for the right of transgender people to live free from discrimination and prejudice.

… to the reaction of the left to the report, as noted earlier, to my own reaction of Do I trust what this guy is saying?

And this leads to this blog post’s title, Error Corrective Culture. The goal of society is survival; this is built on the resolution of literally billions, in our rather large society, of problems, large and small. We should desire solutions that advance the probability of survival of our society, and one would think that would imply the actors, us folks, who propose and sometimes implement solutions, would keep that increase in survival odds uppermost in our minds.

But arrogance, that infantilizing disease, leads many, even most, of us down the flaming path of fame, fortune, prestige, and when there is a threat to that path, our reactions are not truth-oriented, but self-oriented.

I think a lot of that is caused by a missing facet of our culture: the importance of self-correction in society. When society makes a mistake, is it considered a positive to recognize and correct it?

No. It’s considered a flaw in the individual or group that a mistake was made, societally speaking. Oh, when it’s in a technical field considered difficult, then mistakes are expected, and a well-designed field will accommodate the mistakes by allowing for correction. That’s why I have a Backspace key that lets me re-spell “accomodate”[spelling].

Society doesn’t have it, though. Heels get dug in: homophobic attitudes, racism, communism, Soviets, homeopathic medicine … pro- pediatric gender medicine? We don’t value the admission of fault, re-examination, and self-correction. Our pride, our pursuit of fame, our arrogance, trips us up. All because the actors, not in the theatrical sense, are motivated by self-interest.

And makes society that much less stable, more likely to tear itself into bits, as we cling to mistaken positions, and impoverishing all of us, endangering all of us.

When will we return to the pursuit of truth?


c.s. The words of H. L. Mencken ring true:

For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.

And, for those who read far too closely, yes, I just plagiarized myself.

spelling Two ‘m’s, really, in accommodate? One m? They both look wrong.

The Mistake Of Focusing, Ctd

My correspondent continues concerning the content of mainstream media:

A few liberal columnists do not a giant media outlet be “captured by extreme-left journalists.” I used to subscribe to both NYT (long time ago) and the WaPo (until about 1.5 years ago). The pair were definitely more liberal 8 to 12 years ago, but they are not remotely that at all when it comes to the majority of their print. Again, that they have a few liberal columnists (I’m a big fan of Jamelle Bouie at the NYT, for example) does not counteract the huge conservative slant on coverage, wording, headlining, and article placement in both of those papers. And it’s no surprise, given that both are owned by wealthy, conservative individuals (Bezos, WaPo) or families (Ochs-Sulzberger family, NYT). A couple liberal op-eds are lipstick on a pig compared to the endless normalization and slant and spin of the rest of the papers.

Troubling. Very Troubling

From AuntieB, “No Tassels, No Ears. A Sterile Summer In Northern Ohio,” on Daily Kos:

Then I started to notice the silence. Usually corn fields hum with life. Birds, crickets, all sorts of insects create a quiet hum all day and all night. I couldn’t hear it.

Some of the fields also looked different. They were planted just before that wild swing of rain followed by heat. That brutal one-two punch hit right as the seeds were waking up. Now the corn has grown tall, but it’s sterile. No tassels. No ears. No harvest.

Farmers here are calling it “tight tassel.”

They say it might affect a third to half of the local crop.

Up here in Minnesota I know my strawberries didn’t produce, the raspberries and blueberries produced minimally. Bumblebees are way down, as is the local morning bird flock, which used to be deafening at 5 in the morning, and now we barely hear it.

Is This A Mistake?

Joe Perticone of The Bulwark remarks on Congress and the Epstein Files incident in a paywalled post, to which I do not have full access:

Republicans are imploding over Jeffrey Epstein, and the evidence is hard to miss. The panic among GOP lawmakers is unlike anything I’ve seen in a decade of reporting on Congress. …

This time with Epstein is different. Republicans can’t keep their heads down and trust that the base will keep holding them up, because the Republican base is what’s causing the current panic. Far-right lawmakers are anxiously trying to navigate around the Scylla of Trump and congressional leadership pushing them to hold off on the Epstein issue, and the Charybdis of the hot-headed multitudes who lifted them into office after getting them to promise to reveal every dark secret of the Epstein case.

And now Speaker Johnson is shutting down Congress without a vote of any sort on the Epstein Files. And for more than a month.

Johnson and other House GOP leaders have resisted a push to hold a floor vote to force the release of materials on Epstein. Earlier this week, Johnson accused Democrats of playing “political games” by trying to force a vote. Johnson sent the House home for its summer break early amid the controversy roiling the lower chamber over the release of the Epstein files. The House had initially been scheduled to be in session through Thursday, but ended on Wednesday instead. [CBS News]

This, despite …

“We want full transparency. We want everybody who is involved in any way with the Epstein evils — let’s call it what it was — to be brought to justice as quickly as possible. We want the full weight of the law on their heads,” Johnson told CBS News’ chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett in an interview Wednesday.

“It’s not a hoax. Of course not,” said the House speaker, a Louisiana Republican, when asked if he considers it a hoax — a word that has been used by President Trump to describe some of his supporters’ interest in the Epstein case.

I think he’s hoping the whole thing goes away. After all, voters are supposedly notorious for short attention spans.

But he’s sent his caucus home into what may turn out to be a frying pan. Townhalls filled with angry, demanding non-partisan crowds. Is this what he really wants? Protests potentially in front of members houses. What if a few Republicans resign in fear of voters or whoever has been terrorizing Congress (see Senator Schiff’s comments here, although you’ll have to do your own searching)? Speaker Hakeem Jeffries of the Democrats, anyone?

Will this turn into a morality play of gratitude to President Trump for members of Congress’ jobs while facing the possibility that the source of said jobs is a man on a list of clients of alleged sex ring operator Epstein?

And a really angry electorate?

Stay tuned for politics as entertainment. And watch for the Detemined Distractinator.

That’s A Bit Unsettling

When it’s commentary, it’s not unsettling. But when the subject of commentary does it, it’s either exceptionally idiotic, or …

Sundog, a memecoin by crypto billionaire Justin Sun, just posted a meme depicting its mascot controlling the White House. Sun has spent (or will shortly spend) a total of $213 million on Trump-connected crypto projects.

Molly White (@molly.wiki) 2025-07-24T16:35:26.861Z

[H/T Molly White. No relation.]

Although the dog does remind me of the next-door neighbor’s dog growing up. Name of Princess, everyone called her Prinny, except the paperboy, who I think called her That vicious thing at [redacted]’s house.

Y’All So Sure About That?

Professor Richardson may be a trifle optimistic:

This seems to be another unforced error, reminding Americans of another story the administration would prefer they forget, since opponents of Gabbard’s nomination for her post noted that she has a long history of repeating Russian propaganda. While Trump seems determined to reach back to the rhetoric that got him elected in 2016, it’s hard to see that as a powerful distraction from the Epstein story, since Americans have now had eight years to contemplate the many times Trump has deferred to Russian president Vladimir Putin and weakened Ukraine’s ability to fight back against Russia’s incursions. And claims about the health of a losing presidential candidate from nine years ago seem pretty weak sauce, especially since today she seems far more stable than Trump.

The professor really thinks Americans will remember Secretary Gabbard’s alleged role as a relay for Russian propaganda?

Heck, I pay attention and I didn’t remember that until this reminder came across my screen. I think this is one of the weakest paragraphs I’ve seen from Professor Richardson.

The Mistake Of Focusing, Ctd

My recent suggestion that observers with more time than I believe the mainstream has gone into the left corner evoked a reaction from a reader and old friend:

This, however is bullshit: “While there’s been concern that The New York Times and WaPo have been captured by extreme-left journalists”. Not Even Close. Both are total normalizers of GOP insanity and total apologists for capitalist class warfare on the masses.

Being a subscriber to WaPo, I can state that right-wing madness is reported and marked as such by the journalism side of the house. I do not subscribe to The New York Times, but, as I understand it, for a while they were far gone left, which would imply a close examination of the right.

Whether or not either is thorough is another question, one that I haven’t the time or inclination to answer.

The opinion side of the houses differs. I’d imagine Marc Thiessen, a WaPo columnist and Trump partisan who once wrote a column proclaiming Trump as the most honest politician ever, is still soft on Trump – but I haven’t read any of his stuff since at least 2020.

But if opinion is important, WaPo’s Dana Milbank bangs GOP heads together at every opportunity.

The assertion that Both are total normalizers of GOP insanity and total apologists for capitalist class warfare on the masses strikes me as characteristic of someone with a strong ideological orientation, and I’ve noticed that such folks tend to view the media in a very binary manner – they’re with us or against us.

There’s little room given to the possibilities of being wrong, even that the media is trying hard but has the unfortunate attribute of being, well, human.

Word Of The Day

Coopetition:

Coopetition is the act of cooperation between competing companies; businesses that engage in both competition and cooperation are said to be in coopetition. Certain businesses gain an advantage by using a judicious mixture of cooperation with suppliers, customers, and firms producing complementary or related products.

Coopetition is a type of strategic alliance that is particularly common between software and hardware firms. [Investopedia]

Noted in “Trump’s tax bill has become a battlefield for tobacco giants,” Jacob Bogage, WaPo:

“They have a disagreement on this policy, but they’re partners. It’s classic ‘coopetition,’” said [Senator] Tillis, using a term that describes when two competing companies rely on a shared infrastructure. For tobacco firms, many contract with the same growers for various types of leaf. “At the end of the day, it’s the impact on growers I have the concern with.”

The Mistake Of Focusing

Long-time pollster Gallup has a poll up regarding immigration, and here’s their summary:

Americans have grown markedly more positive toward immigration over the past year, with the share wanting immigration reduced dropping from 55% in 2024 to 30% today. At the same time, a record-high 79% of U.S. adults say immigration is a good thing for the country.

These shifts reverse a four-year trend of rising concern about immigration that began in 2021 and reflect changes among all major party groups.

With illegal border crossings down sharply this year, fewer Americans than in June 2024 back hard-line border enforcement measures, while more favor offering pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants already in the U.S.

These findings are based on a June 2-26 Gallup poll of 1,402 U.S. adults, including oversamples of Hispanic and Black Americans, weighted to match national demographics.

The same poll finds many more Americans disapproving than approving of President Donald Trump’s handling of immigration. Trump’s 21% approval rating on the issue among Hispanic adults is below his 35% rating nationally, with the deficit likely reflecting that group’s low support for some of the administration’s signature immigration policies.

It’s a bit fascinating how after media focusing on an issue for several months, Americans begin to really think about it. For a while, Republicans emphasized that a flood of immigrants – true or not – was lapping over our borders.

But, I suspect, this caused various media sources to explore and discuss immigration and its affect on the nation. For example:

  • Do immigrants get free healthcare? Generally, no, although emergency rooms will provide care because of laws mandating same.
  • Who picks fresh produce? Mostly, immigrants. They also staff abattoirs, and generally provide a lot of labor that native-born Americans currently find repugnant.

This way to common-sense. Just climb over that bank of plowed, compacted snow….

As their contributions become better known, the drive to chase illegal immigrants out becomes less and less attractive to the American public. The focus on removing immigrants, and anyone who gets in the way, from the country has the effect of focusing a conceptual lens on the issue for the electorate – and thus changing that opinion.

What are other issues that might change, or strengthen? Fossil fuel and their subsidies? Green energy? Coinage? Trump’s central motivation to return to the 1950s, see his demands that the Washington and Cleveland sports teams revert their team names?

And is this also true of lefty issues, such as woke-ism and transgenderism? While there’s been concern that The New York Times and WaPo have been captured by extreme-left journalists, Andrew Sullivan thinks that pendulum is beginning a return swing (paywall) in the wake of rank foolishness from the ACLU.

The times, they are a-changing, and maybe the extremists of all the sides are being rejected. We can hope.

Word Of The Day

Polycule:

The word “polycule” is a portmanteau for a “polyamorous molecule.” In practice, a polycule is a group of non-monogamous people linked by romantic and sexual relationships, … . It can be as big or as small as you can imagine. “A polycule can be three individuals or an infinite number of people, as no two polycule structures are alike,” she adds. The number of people in a polycule depends on each member’s intentions. [Women’s Health]

Maybe it’s new, I’d not run across it before. Noted in “MAGA and the single girl,” Kara Voght, WaPo:

[Arynne Wexler] believes there are plenty of people like her out there — those with “common sense, patriotic values” — who feel culturally out of place among conservatives. The 2024 election cycle had been an “ascendant time” for the right, she said, but that was partly because people were sick of the excesses of the left — the people Wexler would describe at her panel as “androgynous pixie haircut unbathed Marxist freaks in polycules.” But a backlash against liberal ways of life isn’t the same as an endorsement of the opposite.

A bit clumsy, like much of lefty thought.

News That Sounds Like A Joke

A couple of weeks ago President Trump nominated right wing influencer Nick Adams for an ambassadorship to Malaysia. He sounds like a character out of a cartoon:

[Adams] is also known for displays of bravado about his own machismo, including his love of the restaurant chain Hooters.

In one post, he wrote: “I am based. I have rizz. I am smart. I am charismatic. I have superior genetics. I am strong. I am bold. I am intense. I have large amounts of testosterone. I am never wrong. I don’t apologize. I am an alpha male.”

“I never asked to be turned into a sex icon, God made me this attractive,” he wrote in another.

In addition to the life lessons, Adams praises Trump in daily posts on social media. “President Trump is the highest IQ President this nation has ever had, and it’s not particularly close!” he wrote on X this week. Last week, he wrote: “President Trump always wins, which means America always wins. Remember that.” [NBC News]

That last paragraph may have been savvy brown-nosing, although I don’t generally expect Australians to engage in such behaviors.

I wonder if he was confirmed by the GOP Senate.

High Summer

Or at least so says the Arts Editor.

This might be a trifle malevolent.

Shy, yet extroverted.

Someone didn’t notice a picture was in progress.

Izzat how a lily bulges its eyes?

Caught in a paint storm. Again. Be more careful, eh?

Nicest bunch in years, iffen I say so myself.

Here’s A Forgotten (maybe) Option

I recall, during the 2016 Presidential campaign, then-candidate Donald J. Trump musing to a crowd that, as President, he’d have the right to turn off the Internet.

Given that the Internet provides a veritable fire hose of information, true and false, to voters, would now-President Trump turn it off simply to stop dissemination of information concerning the Epstein files?

Is The Scam Falling Apart?

I’ve opined a number of times that President Trump is simply a con-man, and the Republican Party’s swift dash to the far right land of absolutes and arrogance set them up to be grifted.

And I may turn out to be right. I know little enough about Nick Fuentes[1], but he is a far-right influencer and member of MAGA, He is a supporter of President Trump – or, at least, was until the Epstein kerfuffle refused to go away.

During Wednesday night’s episode of the America First podcast, Fuentes responded to Trump’s [Truth Social] post, sharing a number of four-lettered words for the president, starting off with a strong: “F*** you. You suck.”

“You are fat, you are a joke, you are stupid, you are not funny, you are not as smart as you think you are,” Fuentes said, later adding, “This entire thing has been a scam.”

“When we look back on the history of populism in America, we are going to look back on the MAGA movement as the biggest scam in history,” Fuentes said. “And the liberals were right. The MAGA supporters were had. They were.”

“When we look back in history, we will see Trump as a scam artist who served as a vehicle for this rather than the other way around. We were not the vehicle for Trump, Trump was the vehicle for all of us,” Fuentes added. [Newsweek]

My bold.

While many influencers, mostly wannabes, flocked to Trump because of an honest sympathy for at least some of his views, and others due to antipathy for liberals, a bunch went to Trump as a quick way up the social prestige ladder.

This means that some influencers will stick with the President, while others will flee as they discover the President’s essentially mendacious nature. Some will view the lies concerning the alleged Epstein files as a deal breaker, while others will see mendacity as simply another arrow in the quiver for the ambitious – or desperate – candidate. In turn, audiences will shift and shrink as they realize how their favorite influencer is reacting.

If you’re an aficionado of right-wing influencers, it may pay to track who dispenses with loyalty to the President and who clings like plastic wrap. The latter are the weak sisters; the former might bear consideration as those who are dangerously loyal to their beliefs.

And those who just hate liberals could go either way.

In the end, these are the fruits of arrogance and mendacity: self-destruction of the group because one’s ego is more important than triumph for the group. The President’s ego requirements and need to dominate, while initially satisfied, have now run into the ego-requirements of MAGA, i.e., Epstein! Epstein! And his clients!

So far, it looks like it may rip both the President and MAGA apart.


1 Here’s a link to his page in Wikipedia, but I strongly caution that such entries can easily be corrupted, and that people do mature as the years pass. I have no reason to think the latter applies to Mr Fuentes, but I also have no reason to think it does not. Like all social media, approach what you read with caution, not abandon.

Currency Always Has Costs, Ctd

It’s been a while since I glanced at Bitcoin, and even now it had to thrust itself into my visual field. Its price is greatly improved from February, when it was $68,507/coin:

My calculator says that’s a roughly 72% move upwards. Yes, that’s quite a jump, isn’t it? But why? This is from a promotional e-mail from AL-Monitor:

On July 14, bitcoin’s price rose above $120,000, a new record, as US lawmakers prepared to potentially pass regulatory changes that could boost the industry. Such a move would have a range of ramifications for the UAE, which has pioneered crypto regulations and attracted major players and investors in the space. In addition, Abu Dhabi wealth fund Mubadala recently made a major bet on bitcoin.

The links are paywalled, unfortunately, but the fact that crypto appears favored to be placed under a forgiving regulatory regime, and some of the richest people and countries in the world are getting involved, has no doubt pushed up interest and values. Even my favorite goofystock, MicroCloud Hologram, is reportedly involved:

Last week, MicroCloud Hologram Inc. (NASDAQ:HOLO) announced investing up to $200 million in Bitcoins and cryptocurrency-related securities derivatives, generating as much as $34 million in income.

According to the company, it currently holds $394 million in cash reserves and plans to allocate the total amount toward derivatives and technology development in cutting-edge fields such as Bitcoin-related blockchain, quantum computing, quantum holography, and AI-powered AR. [InsiderMonkey]

But will these players have the clout and raw power to hold prices up when the scams begin draining this swamp? That’s the big question.

Word Of The Day

Pharmacognosy:

Pharmacognosy is the interdisciplinary scientific study of natural drugs and bioactive compounds from plants, animals, and minerals—originally focused on identifying crude drugs but now expanded to molecular, chemical, ecological, and medicinal aspects of natural products.

Plants produce a variety of chemical compounds—primary metabolites essential for all plants and secondary metabolites with specialized roles like defense and pollination attraction—that include classes such as alkaloidspolyphenolsglycosides, and terpenes, many of which have therapeutic uses in humans and are isolated through bioassay-guided fractionationTraditional medicine continue to inform modern pharmacology. [Wikipedia]

Noted in “Sea Cucumbers Could Be the Key to Stopping Cancer Growth With a Rare Sugar Compound,” Jack Knudson, Discover (paywall):

“The cells in our body are essentially covered in ‘forests’ of glycans,” said Vitor Pomin, a professor of pharmacognosy at the University of Mississippi in a statement. “And enzymes change the function of this forest – essentially prunes the leaves of that forest. If we can inhibit that enzyme, theoretically, we are fighting against the spread of cancer.”

Where Will He Run?

President Trump may be closer to exiting the Oval Office than most anyone realizes. Among the issues that threaten his tenure in office are dissension in his MAGA base over the issue of the existence, or lack thereof, of a file of client names of alleged child sex ring leader Jeffrey Epstein; alienation of independent and young male voters, who are discovering any old lie will dribble out of President Trump’s mouth, if he thinks it opportune; a Big Beautiful Bill, which will bring the sky down on many voters, under the President’s guidance was passed and he signed it; the failure of the President’s signature tariffs; the disassembly of the medical research establishment; DOGE; unpopular pardons and commutations that appear to buy the loyalty of criminals; and much else.

But what happens if he leaves office? He loses the protection of the ill-advised Trump v. United States decision, and may end up in jail due to his 32 criminal convictions in New York state court. What’s more, there are a number of prosecutions which were quashed when he assumed office, including a very serious question of why classified documents were not only found in his possession, but were actively hidden from the FBI upon searching Trump’s home / country club.

Upon termination of his Administration, he could be in very serious trouble. Welcome to the old icon of Greek despair.

So my guess is that he’s looking at running, and perhaps sooner rather than later. But this report may reflect the closing of an escape destination:

But Trump hasn’t folded to his erstwhile friend Putin. He’s not left Europe in the lurch under the shadow of an increasingly expansionist Russia amid the continent’s worst land war since World War II. Trump seems more warmly disposed toward NATO than he has been for years. …

But he at least has now shed some misconceptions that by force of personality alone he can bend Putin to his will. And by promising Patriot missiles to Kyiv — which Trump said on Tuesday are “already being shipped” — and being open to a new Russia sanctions push in Congress, he’s added steel to American peacemaking.

Trying to coerce Putin to the table may not work either. But at least Trump isn’t giving Ukraine away. [CNN/Politics]

An ex-pat former President in Moscow would have certainly been unique, but now it seems unlikely.

Nor does Beijing or Pyongyang seem likely.

The now-President, future former-President is a poor planner, so watching him try to find a future safe space should be entertaining.