In the goat entrails department, those habitually out over their ski tips may over-interpret this result from earlier this week, but here it is anyways:
Iowa Republicans kept a seat in the state House in a special election today, preliminary results from the Iowa secretary of state indicate.
Republican Blaine Watkins, a legislative aide to a state House Republican, beat out Democrat Nannette Griffin. Watkins won 51% of the vote to Griffin’s 48%. [NBC News]
Republicans win by three points, Democrats lose, but Steve Benen notes:
Note, however, that Donald Trump won this district by 24 points in November, while Watkins won by three points.
But we need more context. The seat was vacated by an unexpected death, and the election before that death was last November. The late victor in that contest, Martin Graber (R-IA), won by a 2-to-1 margin and more, 67%-32%, so a drop from a 35 point margin to a 3 point margin sounds significant.
But.
14001 votes were cast in that contest. The special election? 5336 votes, or a bit more than a third. That’s the significance. Is that drop off in attendance a matter of disgust with the Republicans, or is that confirmation bias? The late Mr Graber had personal popularity? Bad weather? Simple disinterest?
Also, in a bit of non-news, a special election in my backyard was won by the Democrats. It was up for grabs in November, but the victor, Curtis Johnson (D-MN) was never seated due to not satisfying residency requirements. Dumb Democrats. The same Republican, Paul Wikstrom (R-MN), then ran again, this time against David Gottfried (D-MN), in this deep-blue district. Wikstrom lost the first contest by 30 points, so I figured he’d make up some ground in the second.
I was wrong. He lost the second contest by 40 points. Apparently his commercials accusing the Democrats of corruption didn’t go over well in the district. I know my Arts Editor hated them.
But, like I said, it’s a deep blue district. Going through Ballotpedia-provided history shows the Democratic candidates crushing the latest Republican candidates by something like 30 points.
For those forecasting electoral futures, it’s little more than a gnat.
