It’s a compulsion, toenails are falling out, hair tying itself in knots, and angels are turning up their noses. Wait, do they have noses? Here’s my theologically authoritative source.
Anyways, this report is palatable, I think.
What About AtlasIntel?
If pollster AtlasIntel didn’t hold a 2.7 rating, I’d stop citing them because the results they are producing are often at variance with top pollsters, which is significant in the light of the variance between the top pollsters in many cases.
No final conclusion concerning this pollster is yet possible, so choose from the following:
- AtlasIntel has successfully modified their data collection and / or adjustment model for today’s citizenry and is about to cause an uproar in the pollster ranks.
- AtlasIntel hasn’t changed with the times and is about to crash and burn.
- AtlastIntel is a Republican-aligned organization that is employing all of its powers to get a demented, ineffective old man and his allies into power because he’s easily manipulated.
Any more ideas? Send them to me, contact information is in the upper right corner. But right at the moment, I suspect it’s number three.
I do wonder just what coin AtlastIntel is gathering in for this work.
And The Data Came Marching In, Oh So Slovenly!
- In Arizona, where I expect Rep Gallego (D-AZ) to beat election-denier Kari Lake (R-AZ) by double digits, AtlasIntel (2.7) wants you to believe Lake leads by one point, 49%-48%. A few updates back, AtlasIntel had Gallego up by one. It’s worth mentioning that this is strongly reminiscent of the 2022 Senator Hassan (D-NH) / Don Bolduc (R-NH) race in which conservative pollsters tried to convince voters, or perhaps their sponsors, bit by bit, that Bolduc was going to win. The Senator ended up thrashing Bolduc by ten. Perhaps those pollsters, or maybe grifters, are at it again. The only fly in the ointment for this conspiracy theory is AtlasIntel’s 2.7 rating.
Noble Predictive Insights (2.4) has Gallego leading by a slim 48%-44% margin, or four points, with a ±3.5 margin of error. The pollster observes:
Despite Trump’s lead in the Presidential race, Gallego has a strong advantage attributed to slightly less Republican loyalty for Lake (82%) than Trump (87%), as well as a stronger margin among Independents for Gallego (+14) than Harris (+8).
If that continues, Lake is sunk, and with a bigger margin than a mere four points.
- It’s just like it’s snowing, the way the polls come down in Michigan. And it actually snowed here in Minnesota today. Anyways. AtlasIntel (2.7) has a plausible result to report in Michigan of Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leading former Rep Rogers (R-MI) by the small margin of 50%-46%.
Echelon Insights (2.7), new to me but with respectable rating, has it even closer at 48%-46%, but no margin of error evident.
Mitchell Research & Communications (2.4) actually has a lead for Republican Mike Rogers, 49%-47%. That is a result well-nigh unique in this race, which rings my bell to consider this in more depth. 2.4 as a rating is fairly good, but I could see this as a skew to the right. The sponsor of the poll is Michigan News Source, not a news source that has caught my attention. But looking it over, I see the masthead includes the slogan
real, honest, news.
It’s been my observation over the last few years that sites of a dubious nature will use appeals to patriotism and honesty to lure vulnerable readers into trusting them. For me, they’re red flags. The balance of the content of the report reads more like a campaign press release than a real news report. For these reasons, I’m not taking this poll too seriously.
The Washington Post conducted a poll but didn’t name a partner, nor could I find one, which means no rating for them, as FiveThirtyEight only rates Washington Post polls in the context of a partner. The relevance of this poll is therefore difficult to estimate. In terms of data, they give Rep Slotkin a 48%-45% lead, which is within the poll’s margin of error of ±3.7 points. This seems plausible enough.
Finally, the Michigan poll I take most seriously is University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov, two pollsters which individually have ratings of 2.9 and 3.0, respectively. They give Slotkin a big lead, 48%-39%.
- University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research (1.8) gives Texas Senator Cruz (R-TX) a lead over Rep Allred (D-TX) of 47%-45%. A two point lead is not overwhelming, even at this point in the race.
- The doubtful AtlasIntel (2.7) gives Nevada Senator Rosen (D-NV) a two point lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV), 47%-45%, in a race most other respected pollsters give to the Senator by roughly ten points.
- Pennsylvania has seen the most polling of any State in the Union, so here’s what happened today. AtlasIntel (2.7) gives Senator Casey (D-PA) a 49%-46% lead over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), closer to four points, actually, which is a bit low, but nothing like its polling of Arizona and Nevada. Echelon Insights (2.7) actually gives McCormick a lead, 47%-44%, which would be stunning if I weren’t suspicious of the pollster as being askew already.
This all comes in the context of a measurement from University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov, two pollsters which individually have ratings of 2.9 and 3.0, respectively. They give the Senator a larger 48%-42% lead, suggesting Casey will be winning this race.
- In Wisconsin, AtlasIntel (2.7) believes Senator Baldwin (D-WI) and challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?) are tied at 49% apiece. Echelon Insights (2.7) gives the Senator a 49%-48% lead. Neither of these pollsters have had convincing numbers, and they’ve come out of hiding in what seems like the last week, so despite their high ratings, I’m dubious concerning these measurements.
- In Ohio, unknown pollster University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics gives Senator Brown (D-OH) a lead over challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH) of 46%-44%. It’s an interesting result, noting that other poorer quality pollsters have found Moreno to be ahead. The margin of error is ±2.8 points, so it’s what they call a statistical dead heat, but I suspect Brown really does have the advantage. However, this poll hardly constitutes a snapshot in time, as the data gathering period is a monstrous Sept. 12-Oct. 24, what appears to be five weeks or so. That may invalidate this poll.
The Expungement List
Among pollsters removed from campus are ActiVote, Cygnal (2.1), TIPP Insights (1.8), and Change Research (1.4).
Tired?
Oh yeah.
