That was a bloody blizzard, this was a flood of piranha.
The Wind Was At God’s Back, Even It Cannot Stop The Beans’ Vengeance
- In Missouri, candidate and challenger Lucas Kunce (D-MO) sponsored a poll that shows him only down by three, 49%-46%, to Senator Hawley (R-MO). The question mark, of course, is how strong of a pollster are we talking? The stronger, the less likely they’re catering to the sponsor – or at least so goes my theory. The pollster is GQR (2.0). and that 2.0 puts them kinda in the middle of the hierarchy, 89th out of 242 pollsters. OK, a bit better than middle, but nothing outstanding. Margin of error is given as ±4 points, although the document provided, not written by GQR, has that incorrectly stated. I don’t think that should be taken to mean GQR doesn’t know what it’s doing, since this is not on GQR letterhead, digital or otherwise.
So is this an honest, accurate measurement? It may encourage more voters, sick and tired of Senator Hawley, to come out to the polls. And if it’s not? Then Kunce may be done.
In other news, and merely as a comparison, right-leaning and unknown (to FiveThirtyEight) pollster ActiVote has the Senator up by thirteen, 56%-44%, as rounding occurs. Margin of error is stated to be ±4.9 points, and their sample size is only 400 voters, which makes their results certainly less plausible. Is it honest? Is it accurate? I have little reason to trust ActiVote – but that can change.
- Florida experienced a hometown poll from Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research, which is unknown to FiveThirtyEight both in parts and in whole. This pollster sees Senator Scott (R-FL) leading former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) 50%-46%, regardless of whether it’s likely or registered voters.
However, this poll mostly took place before the outrage generated by Mr Trump’s Madison Square Garden production had hit the Latino community, and Latinos are a significant portion of the Florida population. Might that invalidate this poll as Latinos abruptly change their minds? Stay tuned, folks. Senator Scott may become collateral damage.
- Michigan’s race is tight, if we’re to believe three pollsters. Emerson College (2.9), seemingly a whirlwind of activity, has Rep Slotkin (D-MI) ahead of former Rep Rogers (R-MI), 48%-46%, in a poll Emerson conducted for RealClearWorld, a probable right wing organization. Susquehanna Polling & Research (2.3) has it even tighter at 48%-47% for Rep Slotkin. AtlasIntel (2.7) also gives Slotkin a small lead of 49%-47%. All three are within their respective margin of error, I’m sure.
Contrasting these measurements with the last Michigan update is interesting, as highly rated Quinnipiac University (2.8) gave Rep Slotkin a big eight point lead. The polling of Michigan has truly been confusing.
- In Arizona highly rated Data Orbital (2.9) is giving Kari Lake (R-AZ) the lead in the race for the open Senate seat over Rep Gallego (D-AZ), 45%-45%, rounding, donchaknow. And in another touch of surrealism, AtlasIntel (2.7) gives Gallego a meager lead of 48%-48%. I’m drowning in rounding here, guys, and that’s just the start of the madness of a race for a seat that came to an end when election denier Mz Lake won the Republican nomination – or should have ended right there.
If these were run of the mill pollsters, I’d say to just ignore them, but their ratings are too good. Assuming these are accurate measurements, though, there’s still one factor unmeasured by them, and that’s the same as affecting Florida: these polls mostly took place before the outrage generated by Mr Trump’s Madison Square Garden production had hit the Latino community, which is large in Arizona.
CNN/SSRS (2.4), on the other hand, gives Rep Gallego an eight point lead of 51%-43%. University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy/Truedot, unknown to FiveThirtyEight in both part and whole, suggests Rep Gallego’s lead is a big 51%-36% margin, but it’s hard to evaluate an unrated pollster’s contribution. This is a bit of a battle of the pollsters, isn’t it?
I still expect Rep Gallego to win, and win big, in Arizona.
- In Nevada AtlasIntel (2.7) gives Senator Rosen (D-NV) a five point lead, 49%-44%, ahead of challenger Sam Brown (R-NV). Is it really even this close? More believably, CNN/SSRS, which I believe is SSRS (2.4), sponsored by CNN, has Rosen’s lead at nine points, 50%-41%.
Mr Brown, no doubt feeling a little desperate, made this announcement:
Standing beside a sitting Republican senator who sponsored a national abortion ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy, Nevada Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown said if elected, he would vote against such a measure.
Will that lure independents to his banner, or drive away zealous anti-abortion voters? It’s the same bet that former Governor Hogan (R-MD) has made, and it doesn’t appear to have been effective so far. And “so far” is coming to an end quickly.
- In Pennsylvania AtlasIntel (2.7) gives Senator Casey (D-PA) a two point lead, 49%-47%, ahead of challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). But here, as with Florida and Arizona, there is a substantial Puerto Rican population that is thought to be outraged and now ready to vote for Harris, as was also noted in the last update of yesterday.
- In Wisconsin AtlasIntel (2.7) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a five point lead, 49%-48%, ahead of challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?). Is it really this close? It is roughly congruent with Suffolk University’s (2.9) poll from the last Wisconsin update, so maybe it’s accurate. Or perhaps we have two pollsters heading for a fall.
- In Montana Montana State University Billings (a mediocre 1.5 rating) has Senator Tester (D-MT) and challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT) tied at 43%-43%. Given the pollster’s rating and lack of knowledge of any leaning, it’s hard to estimate the fidelity of this poll. But since most of the Montana polling is biased, it’s at least good to see a poll that isn’t waving its bias in the air.
- Tight-rope walking: Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) tries to persuade both groups of Republicans as well as independents & Democrats:
Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan said on Tuesday that he will not be voting in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as he faces a tight Senate race in the state.
“I’ve decided that neither one of them has earned my vote,” Hogan said, referring to Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. [Newsweek]
Does he have enough time to persuade enough voters that he’s independent of Mr Trump? I would have thought declaring to be against any sort of abortion ban would be enough, if anything could. This? Maybe. Not. Recent polling suggests Mr Hogan is down by ten and more points, so this is probably not good enough.
Down The Sump Pump
Polls from unrated, observed leaning right, pollster ActiVote, another leaner Cygnal (2.1), InsiderAdvantage (2.0), Republican-aligned Trafalgar Group (0.7), and Glengariff Group (1.5) have been discarded.
Final Thoughts?
I’ve never seen an election like this. Even the Minnesota Governor’s race of 1990 seems tame by comparison, and that featured scandals, big comebacks by scorned-by-their-own-parties candidates, and, I don’t know what else.
If Mr Trump loses, and I think he will, will he then claim credit for discrediting the Republican Party? It might be a way to restore face.
