It’s all coming in a rush. Oh, that’s right, I shouldn’t mix campaign updates with Stephen King movies. Please, don’t open the elevator.
Is The Truth Like A Human In Jurassic Park, Running For It–
- University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab (2.8) says former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) is only three points behind Senator Scott (R-FL), 49%-46%, in Florida. Emerson College (2.9) gives Senator Scott a larger lead of six points, 53%-47%. I wonder how large a part the hurricanes will play in swaying folks’ opinions. I suppose we’ll not be able to measure that with any sort of confidence.
- In Pennsylvania, Monmouth University (2.9) is giving Senator Casey (D-PA) a 44%-40% lead over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), perhaps a bit on the low end of the range that we’ve seen. Since we’re here, unknown pollster Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies, a new organization to me, with known Democratic-aligned sponsor Focus on Rural America, is giving Senator Casey a 47%-45% lead, which I’m sure is within their unsupplied margin of error. And that may be quite large as they report their sample size to be an unsettling low of 400 voters.
So this difference in measurements does spark the question: which is closer to the truth? There’s no way to know, so the way to lean is towards Monmouth University, as they have the superior reputation.
- Quinnipiac University (2.8) sees Michigan’s Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leading by eight over former Rep Rogers (R-MI), 52%-44%, a position Rep Slotkin has occupied, mostly, since the primaries, but … not with Quinnipiac University! The last time this pollster surveyed Michigan on the Senate race, which was only a couple of weeks prior, they found the race tied; now it’s Slotkin by eight? The pollster acknowledges the difference but doesn’t try to explain it, at least not in the provided report. Poor surveying technique? Since I’m here, unknown pollster Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies, a new organization to me, with known Democratic-aligned sponsor Focus on Rural America, is giving Rep Slotkin a smaller lead of 50%-45%. Their sample size is a small 400 voters. It may be close in Michigan, but Rep Slotkin appears to be on course for a promotion.
- Quinnipiac University (2.8) sees Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) leading by one over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI), 49%-48%, or a dead heat. Unknown pollster Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies, with known Democratic-aligned sponsor Focus on Rural America, is giving Rep Slotkin a substantial lead of 52%-44%. Their sample size is a small 400 voters, or a bit more than a third of the sample size reported by Quinnipiac University. Here we have a highly rated pollster that is issuing erratic measurements (see the Michigan entry, above), and an unknown pollster with a big lead for Senator Baldwin based on less data. It’s hard to say which to believe.
- In Texas, Emerson College (2.9) is giving Senator Cruz (R-TX) a two point lead, 48%-47% with a bit of rounding, over Rep Allred (D-TX). As the poll’s credibility interval is ±3.4 points, this race might be sizzling. Except the last update featured YouGov (2.9) giving Senator Cruz a seven point lead, and Cruz over 50%. As we head into the last two weeks, the pollsters are getting quite erratic, even among the good pollsters.
- In Maryland, Emerson College (2.9) appears to be putting the stake into former Governor Hogan’s (R-MD) campaign for the open Senate seat, according Democrat Angela Alsobrooks (D-MN) a 57%-43% lead.
Unworthy Of Discussion
Pollsters the results of which were not cited: ActiVote, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8), Trafalgar Group (0.7 – that’s not a typo!), InsiderAdvantage (2.0 – seems to lean conservative, but it’s hard to say how much), and Change Research (1.4).
Anything Else?
Not really. The battleground states remain the popular polling targets; Nebraska’s not being polled unless it’s sponsored by the candidates. Will Osborn pull off the upset? We’ll just have to wait.
I often hate waiting.
