Tuesday I had my Covid-19 booster, and Wednesday has been miserable. Here’s the previous campaign update, back when I was fun and memorable.
The Polling Frightens Me, Help!, Ctd
Just after publishing my last update, I ran across “18 Reasons To Be Bullish About The Election,” by GoodNewsRoundup on Daily Kos, and their third reason is “Ignore the red wave polling.” Yeah, doesn’t really work with their title, but the information is still good, even if it’s not new, excepting the specifics. I encourage you to read it, even if the style of the progressives grates on your nerves. Money quote:
[A]n example: Yesterday I saw a diary here about a poll from American Greatness. It was a PA poll that showed Harris up 4 in registered voters but down 1.5 to trump in likely voters.
That is odd.
I wasn’t the only one who thought that. Aaron Astor (a professor at Maryville College) looked into it and the poll all but removed Philadelphia from the LV totals.
Weird!
Maybe a mistake?
Daniel Nichanian. Editor-in-chief and founder of @BoltsMag contacted the pollster to let them know about the mistake and IT WASNT A MISTAKE.
They claim that nearly the entire sample of registered voters from Philadelphia were unlikely to vote. (Despite 75% of them saying they were “very likely to vote.”)
Keep your eye on the raw data and not the predigested pap. Like I said, go out and vote! Encourage friends and family to vote. And remember, to quote former Governor Ventura (I-MN), This isn’t a horse race! It doesn’t matter that you voted for the winner or the loser, there are no points for voting on that basis. Negative points for misunderstanding democracy, really. Pick out the person who has the best character, because this is a character election, and vote for them. That’s how to do your best to ensure Democracy continues.
If you really need more reassurance, you can try this, also on Daily Kos.
And In Orbit Around …
- Maryland’s former Governor Hogan (R-MD), now the Republican Senate candidate, may have a scandal holding him back, according to Time. The last respectable poll for Maryland’s race for the open Senate seat emptied by retirement gave his opponent, Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), an eleven point advantage. The tea leaves look soggy for Hogan. Maybe he can busy himself rebuilding the Republican Party.
- The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) is giving Senator Casey (R-PA) of Pennsylvania a four point lead over challenger David McCormick (D-PA), 48%-44%. Given this pollster’s divergence from other polls, even with their prestigious position atop the FiveThirtyEight rankings, I’m inclined to see Casey’s lead as being 2 to 4 points larger.
- Holy smokes, Mississippi has a poll! Too bad it was sponsored by the Democratic challenger, Ty Pinkins (D-MI), and it isn’t a prestigious pollster, but is instead Change Research (1.4).
It’s hard to say what their measurement of a mere five point lead for Senator Wicker (R-MI), 47%-42%, actually means. That is, what is that measurement’s relation to reality? Is Mr Pinkins that close? Does he have a chance of upsetting Senator Wicker? Or is it all nonsense?The Next Day: The results have been corrected on FiveThirtyEight to show Senator Wicker’s lead is 48%-35%, a more believable 13 point gap. I also notice the result links differ. This might explain the change:
Voter Awareness Boosts Pinkins’ Numbers
The survey reveals Roger Wicker initially leading by 13 points over Ty Pinkins. However, Wicker’s broader unfavorability rate stands at 36%, surpassing his 26% favorability. Conversely, Pinkins, while lesser-known, achieves a positive net favorability, 12% favorability against a 9% unfavorability.
After voters read candidate biographies, the electoral gap narrows. Wicker’s support slightly increases to 50%, while Pinkins gains ground at 40%, reducing the gap to 10 points. By the final ballot, the gap closes further to just a 5-point striking distance, with Wicker at 47% and Pinkins at 42%.
The problem, of course, is that handing out biographies at voting booths is probably illegal and fruitless. Pinkins needs to communicate how he differs from Wicker now. I think I shall disregard this poll. There are too many unknowns and it doesn’t taste right.
- Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (2.6) is giving Florida Senator Scott (R-FL) a seven point lead over former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), 48%-41%. From the last Florida update, that puts Mason-Dixon solidly between a doubtful result from The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) of a nine point lead, and a result from equally prestigious Marist College (2.9) of a two point lead, or statistical dead heat, for the Senator. Who’s off and who’s on? Hard to say here. Everyone presumably has chops, so discarding the poll that is disliked isn’t really a viable option.
- Missouri challenger Lucas Kunce (D-MO) now has received the endorsement of both the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the Kansas City Star, for whatever legacy media endorsements may be worth these days. Kunce’s campaign pulls back the paywall curtain on the former newspaper to quote the relevant editorial:
… Hawley (who is running unopposed for the GOP nomination next month) adds to the reasons Missourians should help hold that line. From his political and personal culpability for the events of Jan. 6, 2021, to his insincere populist showboating on the Senate floor, to his outrageous recent defense of Christian nationalism, Hawley has been a frequently embarrassing senator for Missouri — and not an especially effective one. With recent polls showing Hawley with a single-digit lead over Kunce in a state Trump won by 16 points in 2020, Democrats may in fact have the opportunity for an upset here. They also have an opportunity to seat a senator the state could finally be proud of.
That’s more or less a slap upside the head of Senator Hawley (R-MO). But it doesn’t mean Kunce will win. That’s up to the Missouri citizens.
- In Texas Senator Cruz (R-TX) is continuing to maintain his small lead, according to the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs (2.2), 50%-46% over Rep Allred (D-TX).
Presumably, this pollster doesn’t skew results, so Rep Allred needs to continue to get his message out there.
- On the last update, I noted Nebraska’s Senator Fischer (R-NE) and challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE) had pulled out competing polls by dubious pollsters and swung them at each other. It turns out Mr Osborn had another poll in his back pocket, and this measurement is far more impressive: SurveyUSA (2.8) is giving Osborn a 50%-44% lead, which is beyond the margin of error, or would be if SurveyUSA provided that detail.
I’m finding these details interesting:
Candidate Republicans Democrats Independents Fischer 72% 4% 23% Osborn 22% 94% 69% Fischer has sprung leaks among both her fellow Republicans and the Independents, and Osborn is leading in both men and women with 50% of each, while Fischer is only getting 41% of women, and 47% of men. It appears Dobbs is having an effect in this race, although perhaps not of the magnitude I was generally hoping for.
- On the other hand, SurveyUSA (2.8) also surveyed for the Nebraska Senate special election, featuring appointed Senator Ricketts (R-NE) and challenger Preston Love, Jr (D-NE), and the Senator continues to lead, 53%-37%, by 16 points. The saddest part is that this is an improvement for Mr Love of two points.
- More evidence that Senator Cruz’s (R-TX) overall strategy of being an asshole isn’t working out for him comes from Steve Benen of Maddowblog:
Public polling generally shows the GOP incumbent with small but steady leads over Rep. Colin Allred, a well-liked Texas Democrat and former NFL star. But private polling is causing fresh anxieties for Cruz and his party: Politico reported this week that the latest round of polling from the Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate Republicans’ top super PAC, found Cruz’s advantage over Allred “slipping … from 3 points in mid-September to 1 point in October.”
“Most hated member of the Senate” is a paraphrased quote I’ve run across numerous times over the years in relationship to Senator Cruz. Both sides may cheer if he’s replaced. Albeit in a muted way.
I Put A Conclusion Down And Now I Can’t Find It
I have started discarding polls, because I hope readers now understand that some don’t deserve to exist. Such pollsters as ActiVote, SoCal Strategies, Patriot Polling (1.1), Trafalgar Group (0.7!), and Redfield & Wilton Strategies were on the list.
We’re now less than three weeks out on the terminus of the Senate campaigns, and I continue to have hopes. Senator Fischer’s (R-NE) looming disaster in Nebraska has been a complete surprise; if Mr Kunce can pressure Senator Hawley (R-MO), perhaps beating him, that would rival the shocker in Nebraska. The Florida and Texas races, despite the shock expressed by the longtime media, is less surprising, given the abrasiveness and darker qualities of the incumbents. And Montana? The willingness to throw away a competent and respected member of the Senate in favor of a businessman whose business is failing, and has multiple scandals, would be a shocking commentary on the Montana electorate. If that happens. Pollster reputations are on the line in Montana.
That blasted cat brought in a mouse, now I have to wonder where it went. Until next time…
