From a subscriber-only come-on of Erick Erickson:
The Republicans have a very good chance of winning control of the United States Senate despite their very best efforts to lose it. Last month at The Gathering, Mitch McConnell told me on stage that this is the most favorable map he has ever seen. He’s exactly right.
Republicans control 49 seats and are not meaningfully at risk of losing any incumbents this cycle. This means that Democrats are forced to defend incumbents in the seven most vulnerable seats. By flipping West Virginia with the retirement of Manchin, the worst case scenario is a 50-50 tied Senate with control belonging to whichever party is in the White House.
But Democrats are convinced that Rick Scott in Florida and Ted Cruz in Texas are viable pick-up seats for them. As a result of learning nothing from 2018, they are redirecting resources to pursue races they have no chance of winning.
Six months ago I would have nodded in agreement. But apparently Erickson’s reading, and taking seriously, his side’s propaganda concerning such matters as climate change (Florida residents might be pointing at Beryl and Helene), abortion, and, frankly, corruption. Sorry, Senator Scott (R-FL). That’s a mistake.
In his efforts to keep his herd together, I fear Erickson is overstating the case for both Senators Cruz (R-TX) and Scott, who are clearly in serious jeapardy, and does not even recognize that Senator Fischer (R-NE) seems to be in a tie with challenger David Osborn (I-NE), who probably would not caucus with the Senate Republicans.
Or maybe he mentions Fischer behind the paywall.
On The Issues: Senator Deb Fischer (R-NB).
In any case, this is a pattern for Erickson – express strong confidence in Republican candidates, such as Loeffler, Perdue, Trump, and Walker, watch them go down in flames, and analyze their faults, without analyzing his own mistakes that led him down the path of misplaced confidence. That’s what I’m seeing here: he’s convinced himself of the moral depravity of the Democrats without recognizing Cruz’s reputation as the most hated Senator in the Senate, Scott’s reputation for corruption in the private sector and his willingness to attack Republican leaders, not to mention his failure as a leader of Senate reelection efforts in the 2022, and Fischer? To be honest, I’m not sure if it’s simply her positions that repel Nebraskan voters, or if there’s more to it.
But I believe there’s a chance that all three incumbents may lose. With the loss of the West Virginia seat, Democrats would net two seats.
And Erickson would look bad. Again.
