In The Dash
Is the vice president hitting her stride?
Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47% to 42% in the race to win the Nov. 5 presidential election, increasing her advantage after a debate against the former president that voters largely think she won, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Thursday.
The two-day poll showed Harris with a five percentage point lead among registered voters, just above the four-point advantage she had over Trump in an Aug. 21-28 Reuters/Ipsos poll. [Reuters]
Ipsos has a 2.3/3 star rating from FiveThirtyEight.
A five point lead is larger than my last citation, which was four, but it’s still not big enough, to be conservative about it.
Oh, And This …
A local interview quoted an Iowan as saying this was not about a date with Mr. Trump, but a vote, and they were voting Trump. Unfortunately, the two are a lot more alike than perhaps that Iowan realizes.
And speaking of Iowa, the Iowa Poll, conducted by highly respected Selzer & Co (2.8), shows a startling shift in the Presidential race in Iowa:
Kamala Harris has significantly narrowed the presidential race in Iowa, cutting Donald Trump’s lead to 4 percentage points in a dramatic turnaround from Joe Biden’s double-digit deficit.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Vice President Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the 18-point lead the former Republican president enjoyed over Democratic President Biden in late spring. [Des Moines Register]
If Iowa is suddenly competitive, then that suggests other states regarded as Republican safe territories are suddenly not. While Selzer expresses strong doubt that Harris can actually take Iowa, it’s worth wondering if Iowa’s six electoral votes are worth pursuing by a Harris or Walz stop in, say, Des Moines.
In fact, Trump is in so much trouble that Democrats have some helpful advice:
“If we are being honest, last night’s debate performance by former President Donald Trump was disastrous and hard to watch,” Moskowitz said Wednesday in a statement titled, “Trump’s ability to continue campaign.”
“I believe now is the time for the former President to have those difficult conversations about whether or not he should continue serving as the Republican Party’s nominee for President,” Moskowitz continued. “For now, I want to give him the space to meet with his family and make that decision.” [The Hill]
Advice that I’ve given to the Republican Party.
Less than two months ago.
