Results are delivered via rake… previous results were delivered via coffee filter….
Hey, About Morning Consult
Morning Consult (1.8) released a number of polls overnight, and I noticed they use a larger sample size than most pollsters. It guarantees nothing, but it does make it more likely they’ll get accurate results.
Chances are. That 1.8 rating still doesn’t look good.
Most Obvious Right-Wing Grifter Pollster
Obviously, this is all speculation, since there are no objective baselines from which to measure; other sensibilities must be used to make the call. For me, claiming Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) has a mere six point lead, 42%-36% over challenger Royce White (R-MN), when that gap should be in the upper teens, is a big red flag, and we can see that in previous, far more authoritative polls. A supporting flag is the insistence of the pollster that Minnesota is, somehow, a swing State! No, we learned our lesson from former Senator Coleman (R-MN) and former Governor Pawlenty (R-MN), and the Minnesota Republicans. Some folks were fine with them, but most of us didn’t enjoy the experience.
So, step on forward, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (unknown to FiveThirtyEight, no surprise there!), and receive your prize, a good, old-fashioned clout[1] upside the head. Not all of their polls seem fraudulent, but that Minnesota poll makes me wonder who else they’re misleading, and whether they’re being paid gobs of money to do so.
That Presidential Debate Means Nothing To The Senate Races, Right?
And I saw this! Yes, that big collapse in price is this morning, the morning following the debate.
No, I didn’t watch the debate. My appetite for political events and analysis is actually quite limited. However, I’ve seen bits and pieces, along with other analyses, enough to convince me that Mr Trump’s string may have run out last night.
And, if this is so, the various GOP Senate candidates who are in tight races may have cause to bitterly blame Mr Trump come November, as independents and moderate Republicans who might’ve been inclined to vote for Mr Trump and his allies scurry hurriedly away, convinced that the GOP has become peopled by the terminally crazed and their parasites.
And will Mr Trump abandon the ticket? While I don’t want to be another But he’s a racist! parrot, he’s more or less a misogynist, and so being chased from the race by Mz Harris may be a bit too much for him to swallow.
I think it’s entirely possible that two or three Republican Senate candidates who are thought to at least have a chance, such as Scott and Cruz, may suddenly be viewed as being in the same room as Trump, and voters will walk swiftly away.
Finally, I believe all the polls cited in this message date from before this debate.
The Rake’s Leavings
- Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Arizona gives Rep Gallego (D-AZ) an eight point lead over Republican candidate and election denier Kari Lake (R-AZ), 49%-41%. That’s a trifle on the short side of other, more reputable pollsters, with the noteworthy exception of Emerson College. Meanwhile, Redfield & Wilton Strategies is giving Rep Gallego a six point lead of 48%-42%. Go figger.
- Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Florida gives Senator Scott (R-FL) a five point lead over former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), 47%-42%. And then, in a puzzling move, Redfield & Wilton Strategies is giving Senator Scott a smaller lead of three points, 44%-41%. Is this pollster trying to zig enough to make them seem trustworthy? Or does their “true” reading of the race have Mucarsel-Powell actually leading? It’s even puzzling that they would list Florida as a swing state. That is the fervid hope of Democrats, but right now both Senators and most of the Representatives are Republican, as is the State Legislature. Maybe poll sponsor The Telegraph, a UK news site, wants to fill more inches?
- Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Maryland gives Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) a five point lead over Republican candidate and former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD), 48%-43%. This must be giving Democrats little nightmares. On the other hand, they may plan to ask Hogan to switch parties if Alsobrooks fails. It’s not like the national Republican Party is a warm & comforting home to a politician of Hogan’s middle-of-the-road stripes.
- Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Michigan gives Rep Slotkin (D-MI) a nine point lead over Republican candidate and former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI), 49%-40%, while YouGov (2.9) is giving Rep Slotkin a seven point lead, 48%-41%. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is giving Rep Slotkin a five point lead, 44%-39%. And co/efficient (1.1, which is nearly the bottom of the heap), possibly competing with Redfield & Wilton Strategies for top douchebag pollster, has Rep Slotkin’s lead at one, 39%-38%. Yep, that’s four polls in Michigan on this report, affirming the quality of Michigan restaurants.
- Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Ohio gives Senator Brown (D-OH) a
ninethree point lead over Republican candidate Bernie Moreno (R-OH), 46%-43%. - Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Pennsylvania gives Senator Casey (D-PA) a nine point lead over Republican candidate David McCormick (R-PA?), 49%-40%, while YouGov is giving Senator Casey a seven point lead, 48%-41%. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is giving Senator Casey a lead of eight points, 44%-36%, and that 36% share suggests Mr McCormick is simply not that popular with voters, if you take this pollster seriously. co/efficient (1.1) is giving Senator Casey a 45%-36% lead. which is healthy enough, although a 1.1 rating is hardly inspiring of any confidence in their accuracy.
- Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Texas gives Senator Cruz (R-TX) a five point lead over Democratic candidate Rep Colin Allred (D-TX), 47%-42%.
- Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Wisconsin gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a seven point lead over Republican candidate Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 49%-42%., while YouGov (2.9) is giving Senator Baldwin a nine point lead, 51%-43%, Marquette University Law School (3.0) gives Senator Baldwin a six point lead, 51%-45%, and BK Strategies (1.3 – why do I even bother?) gives Senator Baldwin a slimmer lead of 49%-44%, a five point lead.
- In Missouri, a circuit court disqualified from this November’s ballot the Abortion Amendment to the State’s Constitution that I mentioned earlier, and then, a couple of days later, as if to illustrate the fragility of citizens’ rights, the Supreme Court of Missouri hurriedly reversed that ruling, putting the amendment back on the ballot. If that doesn’t shake up voters, I’m not sure what will. This particular version permits abortions up until fetal viability, so it sounds like a nightmare for physicians, but at least it’s progress for patients. But will it affect the Hawley (R-MO) – Kunce (D-MO) contest? It may make Hawley’s margin smaller, but so far there’s no indications of an upset in the making.
- Rhode Island has finally held its primaries, as Senator Whitehouse (D-RI) wins nomination for reelection, and his challenger will be state Rep. Patricia Morgan (R-RI). On The Issues has little information on Patricia Morgan. Democratic primary voters outnumbered Republican primary voters more than 2 to 1.
And Now For A Commercial-Free Break
- Remember, you pay for cable so that you never have to watch a commercial again. That, folks, is what they were telling us on Showtime 50 years ago. Welcome to the insatiable financial maw of companies, eh? That’s not irrelevant to the question of Senate campaigns.
- For those who are interested in trivia, the rake picked up polls from Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico, and Missouri, with the expected results. That’s why they’re stuck in the rake.
No more room for substantive content, I’ve run out of bits.
1 Clout has a delightful set of meanings that lend themselves to mildly disgusting visuals. Keep in mind that the piece of cloth version often refers specifically to the small piece of cloth concealing one’s genitals.
