Out with the old, in with the new….
Will The Apalachee High School Tragedy Affect Senate Races?
It can, but it must handled with delicacy by those candidates willing to take the risks. Republicans, in general, take the position that nothing can prevent these tragedies, and thus the only appropriate response is “thoughts and prayers.” Any sort of gun control measure is verboten.
But tragic events, such as the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor or the killing of union members by union-busters, are important signals that something in society is structured improperly. The chaos of never knowing if the next person through the door will be shooting a gun is deleterious to everyone in society, and deputizing part of society just to function as a patch, a bandage, on a bad policy decision – a public security force, if you will – is inefficient. Costly, if you prefer.
And don’t get me going on the hoary old arguments about self-defense and that rot. I used to argue for them on social media myself, thirty years ago, but not anymore.
The basic question: Is it better to be dodging bullets or giving up your guns? And then it comes down to policy: all guns? All but hunting guns? That’s local politics.
Bitterness Is Part Of Republican MAGA DNA
This WaPo article concerning the fall of Congressional Freedom Caucus founder Rep Bob Good (R-VA) in a bitter primary fight illustrates one of the prime features of an extremist voter, regardless of left or right: A pig-headed certainty that they are right, everyone else is wrong, and No, We Won’t Close Ranks!
To be clear, the last clause, above, isn’t entirely bad. A truly unacceptable candidate who, somehow, manages to gain the nomination to the general election should be shunned – and, as the Republican population of the House demonstrates, unacceptable successful candidates are shockingly rife. At least such shunning is a message that this candidate is seriously flawed; at best, it may help eliminate them from an important position, and if that’s a hit to the Party, once again, it’s a message.
However, the expressed bitterness is an important indication that norms of behavior and politics, that exist for very good reasons, are really going to pieces in the Republican Party, and if it continues then the Democrats, with all their positives and negatives, will end up in control of the Legislative and Executive Branches. Given the reprehensible behavior of the Republicans ever since Newt Gingrich (R-GA) was Speaker, it’s hard to be against such an outcome, but it’s certainly a situation that merits pause and, hopefully, a replacement Republican Party that does not accept such folks as Greene, Gaetz, Gosar, McConnell, and, for that matter, Good, into its ranks.
What’s This About Pollster CNN/SSRS?
I’m not sure about this pollster name. No pollsters are listed by FiveThirtyEight in their pollster rankings as CNN/SSRS; however, there is an SSRS listed, with a rating of 2.0, sort of middle of the road. Since CNN is a news source, I would not expect them to also be a pollster, although, of course, there’s the famous The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) pairing, so it’s not out of the question.
For the nonce, I’ll consider this a mistake by FiveThirtyEight: the pollster is, I’m thinking, SSRS, and the sponsor is CNN.
And their polling seems more conservative than other polling: for example, in Arizona they give Rep Gallego (D-AZ) a 47%-44% lead over Republican Kari Lake (R-AZ), while highly respected pollsters place his lead in the double digits.
Good, Bad, And The Indifferent
- And That’s A Damp Squib, Isn’t It? Unknown pollster ActiVote may or may not be conservatively aligned, but I don’t doubt that Senator Blackburn (R-TN) has a commanding lead in Tennessee over “Tennessee Three” member and State Rep Gloria Johnson (D-TN), 60%-40%. I’ll desist from future reports unless a black swan starts circling.
- If unknown pollster SoCal Strategies, working for right-wing Red Eagle Politics, is giving Senator Brown (D-OH) of Ohio a five point lead, 50%-45%, over challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH), then Brown’s lead may be greater than that. On the other hand, formidable Emerson College (2.9) is giving Senator Brown a one point lead, 46%-44% (rounding) , well within the margin of error. He could be behind. It’s sort of like your cat sleeping in that closed box, isn’t it? Dead? Alive? Superposition? Yes, a super position for pouncing as you walk by. Oh, sorry, a quantum mechanics joke. Yes, it’s an early morning.
- Senator Rosen’s (D-NV) challenger in the Nevada race, Sam Brown, is a member of the Paul Brown clan, who own the NFL’s Cincinnati Bengals.
- Following up on the dubious pollster result of only a seven point lead for Minnesota Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) over challenger Royce White by Redfield & Wilton (unknown pollster), SurveyUSA (with a hefty 2.8 rating) gives Senator Klobuchar a fourteen point lead, 50%-36%. That’s still short of my prediction of twenty, but a heckuva lot better and more accurate, at least in my opinion.
- SSRS (2.0) is calling it dead even in Pennsylvania, Senator Casey (D-PA) and David McCormick (R-PA?) tied at 48%. This is at considerable variance to other pollsters, who have given Senator Casey a lead as big as twelve. I don’t see anything in the news that would spell disaster for the Senator.
- In Wisconsin, which last saw Senator Baldwin (D-WI) clinging to a one point lead in Emerson College’s (2.9) eyes, SSRS (2.0) gives the Senator a six point lead over Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 51%-45%.
- Michigan must have a warm and comforting restaurant scene, because they have three pollsters covering their Senate race this time ’round, along with having been popular all along. SSRS (2.0), again working for CNN, gives Rep Slotkin (D-MI) a 47%-41% lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI), Glengariff Group (1.5), new to me and not having a great rating, inflates the lead by another three points, 44%-35%, and what appears to be right-wing leaning ActiVote (unknown) drags the lead back down to six, 53%-47%, but allows that Slotkin is in the 50+% land. The last pollster has an “average expected error” of 4.9%, which is not a familiar term to me – am I behind the times in polling, or is this a bunch of amateurs? It’s probably me, I was never an enthusiast of statistics and probability, at least not in college. I did start to implement … sorry, that’s an unneeded tangent. Talking about myself, I mean. Back on point, ActiVote is only working with 400 voters, but the other two are working with 50% more voters, so that could also explain ActiVote’s variance from Glengariff.
- Maryland is lightly polled, perhaps too lightly polled, and the polling I don’t like. Not the results, but the historical quality: Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies (1.2, yes, 1.2) finds Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) leading popular former governor Larry Hogan (R-MD), 46%-41%. But a result from a 1.2 rated pollster really has no assurances.
- What to make of Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research? The bad news is there’s no such combo-pollster listed; the good news is that there is a David Binder Research listed, although the rating is only 1.7. And Fabrizio Ward? No listing. There is a Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, but again a rating of 1.7. So I suppose we just list them as unknown, and then look at their polling of Montana’s Senate race, which comes in at an unlikely 49%-41% favoring Republican challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT) over Senator Tester (D-MT). That’s a roughly 14 point difference from the last poll by RMG Research (2.3) that gave Senator Tester a six point lead. The Republican supposition prior to election season was that Senator Tester was the most likely Democratic incumbent to be flipped, and it looks like they’re trying hard to make it happen, but this and wishing may not be enough. Waiting on the next reputable pollster. I wonder if Erick Erickson’s comments about grifters in the conservative leadership extends to the right-wing pollsters; heck, in this poll, while the bottom-line numbers lead to a supposed eight point lead for Sheehy, the headline on the press release is much more brazen: Sheehy Leads Tester by 16 Points in Montana Senate Race. Read the article and you discover that the alleged 16 point lead is among older voters only, but come on! This is straight-up misleading. I wonder how the sponsor, the AARP, will react if Senator Tester emerges victorious? Sue the pollster for malpractice?
- Emerson College (2.9) reduces their estimate of Florida’s Senator Scott’s (R-FL) lead to one point over former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), 46%-45%, which is definitely within the margin of error. With November 5 coming up fast and Mucarsel-Powell with the momentum, Scott may be in deep trouble. Harris still trails Trump by five points in Florida, according to the pollster. And if Emerson College is running a trifle conservative, as I’ve been suspecting, the Democratic candidate may already have a lead in reality.
- Emerson College (2.9) gives Texas Senator Cruz (R-TX) a four point lead, 48%-44%, over Rep Allred (D-TX), while YouGov (2.9) doubles that lead to eight, 44%-36%. It’s interesting that two top pollsters diverge this much, but there’s time to go.
- The Massachusetts primaries took place on September 3rd. Senator Warren (D-MA) was unopposed and no ballot count is given; her Republican-backed challenger is John Deaton (R-MA), who won in excess of 64% of the Republican ballots. If you look at the On The Issues website, their data on Mr Deaton is thin, so his summary as very moderate is suspect. That said, the summaries I’ve seen of the Republican candidates suggested two of the three of them were moderate, while the third was MAGA. However, both moderates are heavily connected to the cryptocurrency … industry. Scam, if you prefer, as I see the industry as a home of scam artists and folks who don’t understand currency. In the end, I suspect Mr Deaton won’t have much of a challenge in uniting Republican votes behind his candidacy, and it won’t be enough, despite his claim that “… [she’s] losing support every day because of her hyper-partisan politics and her loyalty to just a particular agenda.” A quick glance at reporting suggests he’s using the apocalyptic style of campaigning, and I’m not sure that’ll work with Massachusetts moderate Democrats and independents, two groups he’ll have to attract.
- And in Nebraska, the distraction of a third-party candidate in the tight Senator Fischer (R-NE) and Dan Osborn (I-NE) race has disappeared as candidate Kerry Eddy (Legal Marijuana NOW Party-NE) has withdrawn from the race. She has endorsed Mr Osborn. Additionally:
[Eddy] also acknowledged that part of her decision was calculated to give Osborn a better chance. Political observers said clearing the ballot of other names helps avoid splitting the opposition vote. [Nebraska Examiner]
How many votes will transfer to Mr Osborn is unclear to me, as the polls have not, to the best of my knowledge, mentioned Mz Eddy.
What Comes Next?
Next week is the Rhode Island primary, the last Senate primary of the season. A reminder that Delaware canceled their primaries for the open Senate seat.
