At this juncture, it’s not news that evangelical voters form the core of the Trump base. But what if they begin to fragment? The SBC (Southern Baptist Convention), the primary association of evangelical voters, has been steadily shrinking over the last few years, no doubt due to repulsive behavior such as that of Pastor Robert Morris:
Robert Morris, who founded and led Gateway Church for nearly 25 years in the affluent Dallas-Fort Worth suburb of Southlake, Texas, resigned after the scandal [of child sexual abuse] came to light in June. His exit sent thousands of evangelicals into a season of struggle that has lasted months. [CNN]
And what has that meant for Gateway?
The church has seen a decrease of 17% to 19% in weekend services attendance, a church spokesperson told CNN.
Thousands of probably conservative members, walking away in disgust at the behavior of the leaders of their church, realizing that they are the marks in a giant game where figures of authority abuse their positions, and therefore them.
Over and over and over again.
This despicable behavior, which is not within Mr Trump’s ability to control, may cripple his reelection run. How can he claim that he has enough votes when his very foundation cracks, even if it’s not guaranteed that their disgust extends to him, when the evangelicals continue to shrink?
He can’t.
This may explain Trump’s turn to religion of late.
Trump [asserts he] is destined for success, unless the Democrats “cheat.” And in an interview with television’s Dr. Phil that aired on Tuesday, Trump added another validator to that point: God wants him to win.
Speaking to Trump at the former president’s Las Vegas hotel, Phil McGraw asked the former president to weigh in on last month’s assassination attempt. Had it inspired self-reflection, McGraw wondered, a reconsideration of “why am I here”?
Before answering that question, Trump outlined the ways in which his survival was a function of chance. That, just as the bullet was fired, he turned toward a (misleading) graph on immigration being displayed on a large screen at the Butler, Pa., rally. That, because he turned when he did, the bullet clipped his ear instead of doing far worse damage. [WaPo]
Everyone was surprised when God turned out to be a patch of scruffy sunflowers behind a garage.
Speaking as an agnostic, the problematic part of God is that the Divine can be interpreted in so many ways, and, to someone like me, they all seem equally valid. Trump, if we’re to believe him, along with a bunch of his base, thinks God favors him.
To me, though, this is self-contradictory. God is God, after all, and God could have simply materialized on the roof top, wrung the neck of the shooter, and disappeared. The shooter was due to die anyways, and the other victims of the tragedy, well, their wounds would never have occurred.
Instead, the better interpretation is that the attempted shooting was a warning to Trump: Stop your foolish shenanigans, desist from your evil ways, and repent. That is a very traditional Christian interpretation. The shooter, who was looking to do evil, pays for it, and Trump, spared for many years, gets a warning. The accompanying tragedies are still unacceptable and horrific.
Mr Trump doesn’t appear to be bright enough to come to this conclusion, or at least not admit to it.
Will his invocation of the Divine work? I doubt it, as the organized Protestant sects that are, de facto, supporting him are shrinking quickly:
And I expect they're becoming more savvy about grifters and other abusers.
So, I'm sure his making a claim of being favored by God will be accepted by a few, saving him those votes, but I also suspect this election is already decided as Harris and Walz are being successful at lifting the mood of the nation.
