Life preservers, made of sugar and guaranteed to survive contact with salt water, come and get your own! We’ll even engrave your name on them as we sink! Don’t believe everything you read.
There May Be A Tsunami Out There
Keeping an eye on the reporting on the Presidential race, as well as how the statistical trends of pollsters are leaning, and the name McGovern comes to mind. George McGovern (D-SD) won the Democratic nomination for President in 1972, but, in the subsequent general election, lost to Republican incumbent President Nixon in the Electoral College, 520 to 17. The loss, the rejection, was so bad that McGovern and his wife reportedly considered emigrating. (I have since heard, from a politico friend, that Vice President Walter Mondale’s (D-MN) loss to Reagan was worse at 525-13. Since he’s from Minnesota, I’ll give him a pass.)
Will Trump become the next McGovern? And what does his continued slide mean for the Senate campaigns and elections?
If a McGovern tsunami sweeps over the Republicans and Trump, they won’t take it laying down. I think there’s evidence that some pollsters are skewing results, and others are not adjusting their electoral models for the influx of voters motivated to vote against Dobbs and its supporters – I’m thinking of highly rated Emerson College, which appears to be out of step with other top pollsters. See Wisconsin, below.
Pollsters and their sponsors are certainly motivated this season. Whether it’s highly competitive, as most pundits and politicians proclaim, or a blowout, as I predict, this election season will be more historic than most.
We may see the end of the Republican Party in its Gingrichian mode.
Over The Same Old Ketchup & Cigarette Smoke Stained Table
- In the race for retiring Senator Romney’s (R-UT) Utah Senate seat, Rep John Curtis (R-UT) has a substantial lead, if I may understate the case, over his rivals of 56%-22%-9%, those rivals being, respectively, Caroline Gleich (D-UT) and Carlton Bowen (Independent American Party of Utah). The pollster is HarrisX (unknown to FiveThirtyEight). Rep Curtis seems to be the odds on favorite to become Senator Curtis, despite the status of the pollster, and I shan’t report on Utah results again unless something goes horribly wrong for Mr. Curtis. Yes, I know I said that last time. Shame on me.
- The Montana Republican Party has sponsored a poll by Public Opinion Strategies (1.7) to persuade you that challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT?) leads Senator Tester (D-MT) in Montana, 51%-44%. A highly partisan sponsor of a pollster with a definitely mediocre history, producing results that diverge from a higher quality pollster’s results by 13 points? I’ll regard that with suspicion and, yes, a pinch of salt and some vinegar. Join me.
- Meanwhile, in Michigan a similar scenario yields different results. TIPP Insights (1.8), working for right-wing American Greatness, finds that Rep Slotkin (D-MI) continues to hold a substantial lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI), 49%-39%. This is similar to the last poll from The Bullfinch Group. Are they trying to build cred with the general audience? Or simply believe that truth and honesty is an important facet of polling analysis?
In other polling news for Michigan, Emerson College (2.9) gives Slotkin a lead of 47%-41%, while Fabrizio Ward (unknown under that name) calls it EVEN at 43% apiece. Notably, Fabrizio Ward used a sample size only half that of Emerson College and has a margin of error of ±4.9% compared to ±3.4% for the latter, so along with being unknown, it may not be operating with enough data.
- My last update for Nebraska speculated an alleged faux pas by former Senator Sasse (R-NE) in Florida might shift voting patterns. Now, the Secretary of State for Nebraska is approving not one, but two abortion-related amendments to the Nebraska Constitution. It’s not hard to imagine everyone sensitive to the issue lining up for hours to vote in this election, and those who are against restrictions also voting against Republican candidates for just about everything, now is it?
- In New Jersey, Republican vier (if you vie for something, are you a vier? How about that, you are!) for the Menendez Senate seat Curtis Bashaw (R-NJ) has sponsored a poll by National Research (1.8) that shows his rival, Rep Kim (D-NJ) ahead by only five points, 38%-33%. Wishful forecasting? Rep Kim is not popular in New Jersey? Well, this ridiculous quote of the “polling memo” might tell us something:
“Curtis Bashaw’s unique profile as a political outsider and job creator contrasts well against Kim’s career as a government bureaucrat and politician collecting government paychecks,” the polling memo states. “Bashaw’s common-sense centrism also contrasts well against Kim’s embrace of far left ideology. With a subpar image, Kim could very well be vulnerable in the home-stretch post Labor Day.”
Bashaw’s profile is not unique, think of Hovde, Sheehy, Moreno, and several more that I don’t recall (I plead early morning-itis). The phrases job creator and common sense centrism are classic Republican descriptors designed to contrast positively with politician collecting government paychecks, but it’s a false contrast, because it implies that politicians occupy sinecures while producing nothing. In reality, the creation and refinement of laws is a critical enterprise in the vast experiment in democracy that is America, now isn’t it? This contrast also has the unexpected consequence of implying Mr. Bashaw is seeking a sinecure, although I don’t expect the media to notice and point that out. Finally, embrace of far left ideology is a bit of Republican boiler-plate, designed to infuriate and strengthen their base, and frighten the independents.
Putting it all together and I’d go with wishful forecasting. A 1.8 pollster rating is mediocre, and I can’t say I remember them from any previous campaign. These results are lower than other pollsters’, and New Jersey is notoriously Democratic.
- In Arizona, the people with a front seat view of the action are leaning away from Republican candidate Kari Lake (R-AZ) and towards Democratic Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ):
Bisbee Mayor Ken Budge announced his endorsement Wednesday, making him the latest border mayor [in Arizona] to back Gallego’s Senate bid as immigration and border security remain top issues in the 2024 cycle. Budge praised Gallego in a statement first shared with the Washington Examiner, lauding the House Democrat as the “best candidate in this race to address the situation at the border.” [Washington Examiner]
I don’t really know the effect of such endorsements on the voting public, but on the border issue it may be quite a lot.
But Gallego may not need endorsements, as Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8), sponsored by right-wing Fox News, gives Gallego a 56%-41%, which may serve not only to move him to the Senate, but burn down an Arizona Republican Party that permitted itself to be flim-flammed into selecting Lake as the Republican candidate. This is what happens when a Party is taken over by fourth-raters, and, while entertaining, is a bit of a tragedy in a political system dependent on the Parties balancing each other in the difficult act known as governance.
In other polls for Arizona, highly rated Emerson College (2.9) gives Gallego a miniscule 49%-42% lead, and Noble Predictive Insights (no slouch at 2.4) also gives Gallego a seven point lead, 47%-40%.
- Maryland’s former Governor, Larry Hogan (R-MD) has pulled even with Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) in the race for the open US Senate seat at 46% apiece … if you believe Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (1.7). Polling has been scarce for Maryland, but this result is still out of line for what little we have out there. I’d waiting for confirming polls from reputable pollsters before getting bent out of shape.
- In Texas, Public Policy Polling (1.4), working for Democratic partisan PAC Clean and Prosperous America, finds Senator Cruz (R-TX) leading challenger Rep Allred (D-TX), 44%-40%., and only by two points if candidates other than Cruz and Allred are excluded. The four point lead scenario seems more reality-based, but in both cases the gap is less than the margin of error. Now if only Public Policy Polling were more credible. Meanwhile, unknown pollster ActiVote is giving Cruz a ten point lead, 55%-45%. This result is well off of previous polls by known pollsters, so I’m not paying attention to it.
- In Florida, Public Policy Polling (1.4), working for Democratic partisan PAC Clean and Prosperous America, finds Senator Scott (R-FL) leading former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) by three points, 46%-43%, which is within the margin of error. As with Texas, a more impressive pollster would make this more interesting news. In more questionable news, Cherry Communications (1.1) gives Senator Scott a lead of 51%-44%. The sponsor of the poll? Republican Party-aligned Florida Chamber of Commerce. A partisan sponsor, using a pollster at the bottom of the ratings, is not a respectable combination.
- Given the prominence of the Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8) / Fox News pairing, I’ll ignore my pronouncement concerning Nevada and note that the polling pair gives Senator Rosen (D-NV) a 55%-41%, or fourteen point lead, over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV), which is similar to recent previous polls. On the other end of the pollster spectrum, Strategies 360 (1.1) has Senator Rosen up 50%-38%. Close ’nuff, I suspect. Sitting in this group is also Emerson College (2.9) with a result of 50%-40%.
- YouGov (2.9) gives Missouri’s Senator Hawley (R-MO) a big lead over challenger Lucas Kunce (D-MO), 53%-42%. That’s not a good sign for Mr Kunce.
- Do Businessmen Have To Be Successful To Win? No, probably not. Look at Mr Trump, after all. So this news out of West Virginia will probably have minimal impact on the race for the open Senate seat between Gov Jim Justice (R-WV) and former Mayor Glenn Elliott (D-WV):
As attorneys for West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice’s two adult children prepare to defend their motion in a local circuit court to keep the historic Greenbrier Resort from being auctioned off next week, a new bank is claiming the family defaulted on another loan.
And despite calls to drop out of the U.S. Senate race by the West Virginia Democratic Party over numerous news reports about the woes of his resort, Justice has remained silent. [The Parkersburg News and Sentinel]
Even Justice also owes millions in back taxes to the state and county … will have little impact. To me, he sounds like a scam artist, perhaps a very, very good one. But to West Virginians, he’s just a guy struggling to make a living. I’ll leave sarcasm to the comedians in the crowd.
And, no, retiring Senator Manchin (now I-WV), current occupant of the seat, has not announced he’s going to run after all. The national atmosphere certainly calls for it, Senator Manchin. Oh, wait, that’s the Minnesota State Fair, which is just outside my window. Sorry, comedians.
- And in the shocking news of this issue, Emerson College (2.9) is giving Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a one point lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 49%-48%. An outlier? A predictor? Recent polls have given Senator Baldwin a far larger lead, some reaching into double digits. Notably, Emerson College is giving Mr Trump an unsurprising one point lead over Vice President Harris in Wisconsin, while Morning Consult (1.8 – not nearly as impressive a rating), for Bloomberg News, finds Harris leading Trump in Wisconsin by 8 points, 52%-44%, which I find barely believable at this stage. I have to wonder if Emerson College isn’t adjusting its electoral model to account for new voters, or if Morning Consult has adjusted too much.
And Fabrizio Ward (unknown) gives Senator Baldwin a five point lead, 48%-43%. I see that Fabrizio, along with using only half the sample size of Emerson College, also conducted their survey Aug. 19-21, compared to Emerson College’s Aug. 25-28. News grows stale quickly in this electoral season. It takes an exceptional bit of news to have staying power, such as the Dobbs decision. Otherwise, blink and it’s gone from the public consciousness.
And In Conclusion, I’d Like To Say …
This section intentionally left blank.
[published Aug 30, 2024]
