Last time was this, but what is that?
Over The Traffic Hump Labeled ‘DNC’, What’s Next?
- Florida’s primaries yielded the final contestants in the State’s Senate race, Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) and former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, along with four candidates with little chance. The weed in the garden if you’re a Democrat? Senator Scott, while crushing two primary opponents, garnered more ballots in his primary than did all the Democratic candidates aggregated. This suggests Mucarsel-Powell has to persuade all of the Democratic voters, of which she won only 68.6% of their ballots, and a large majority of the independent voters, to vote for her in order to win.Thing is, this is not impossible. The blowback of the Dobbs decision, communicated properly, may suffice to defeat a Senator with a lot of behavioral problems. While the numbers are disconcerting on their own, the Democrats still have an outside chance in the big State of Florida.
- After its Tuesday primary, Wyoming will see a Senatorial contest between Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) , who surprisingly only received 68.1% of the Republican primary votes, and challenger Scott Morrow (D-WY), who lost a few votes to write-in candidates, and thus won his primary with only 98+% of the Democratic ballots. That said, Barrasso nearly quadrupled Morrow’s ballot count, and put the two together and they barely top 5,000 votes. When they say it’s a small State, they mean it.And it’s full of tall mountains, and that’s what Morrow faces in this race.
- But Texas is not full of tall mountains, and the big one Rep Allred (D-TX) faced a few months ago appears to now be more of a hill, as highly respected pollster YouGov (2.9) has Rep Allred only two points behind Senator Cruz (R-TX), 47%-45%.If Rep Allred pulls this off, it’ll be a real shock to the entire Texas Republican Party, an organization that desperately needs electric shock therapy in the wake of the failed impeachment of Texas AG Ken Paxton. And it’s too bad my Mom’s not still around, as Allred was her maiden name. She’d be tickled.
- In Maine, University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6) is giving Senator Angus King (I-ME) a lead over Republican challenger Demi Kouzounas (R-ME) and Democratic challenger David Costello (D-ME), 43%-33%-9%, respectively. Senator King is an independent who apparently cannot stomach the Republicans in the Senate, and therefore caucuses with the Democrats, providing a critical vote to the Democrats. Unless numbers change in a challenger’s favor, I shan’t mention Maine again.
- A Dream, Extinguished: A few months ago, Axios reported on Republican dreams when it comes to New Mexico’s race between Senator Heinrich (D-NM) and challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM):
With [Domenici’s] name ID and personal wealth, national Republicans see the race as a sleeper that may also force Democrats to spend resources defending what is considered a safe seat.
Emerson College (2.9) is now measuring Senator Heinrich’s margin as being twelve points, 49%-37%, with a credibility interval of ±3.1 points, and I think the Republican dream is extinguished, absent a black swan event. Unless shocking news comes along, I shall omit New Mexico polling news in the future.
- I didn’t expect to ever again mention the newest member of the Senate, New Jersey’s George Helmy (D-NJ), who was appointed by Governor Murphy (D-NJ) to the seat of the resigning-in-disgrace former Senator Bob Menendez (I-NJ), but this goes into the Political Version of Trivial Pursuit:
George Helmy will succeed Menendez until the November election results for the Senate seat are certified late in the month, the governor said. At that point, Murphy said Helmy will resign and he’ll name the winner of the election to the seat. [AP]
The Trivial Pursuit question might be Who is the most ephemeral member of the US Senate? (Does Trivial Pursuit function on questions? I haven’t played in thirty years.) Alternative: Which US Senator kept his seat warmest? Sure does sound like a Thank You! to me, as previously noted, and I’m fairly sure I’ve never seen this before.
- In Vermont, I, of course, am wrong, as University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6) has produced poll results that I claimed no one would bother pursuing. In their measurement, Senator Sanders (I-VT) leads Gerald Malloy (R-VT), by a large number, 66%-25%. Vermont will be getting no more love from me. Or, to borrow an obscure poetic form:
Sanders tops
a
hapless victim - Pitiless Rumors Department: Former Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE), who resigned to take the job of President of the University of Florida last year, and since resigned from that job, purportedly due to a family illness, is accused of, well, poor financial judgment by fellow Republican Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL):
Former University of Florida President Ben Sasse on Friday disputed allegations of “inappropriate spending” following reports that spending by the president’s office more than tripled after he took over as leader of the state’s flagship university. [6 South Florida]
Disputations and more salacious details at the link. It all sounds irrelevant, yet might it have an impact on Nebraska voters and the two races on which they’ll be voting? That’s a hard question to answer. But in the wake of the shocking news that Dan Osborn (I-NE) is only two points behind Senator Fischer (R-NE) in a very respectable pollster’s results, which is almost certainly within the margin of error, every voter who flips from Republican to, let us say, disgusted with all the Republican corruption! is a valuable voter for Osborn. Mr Osborn may find himself obligated to send a Thank You! note to Governor DeSantis.
On The Issues: Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NE).
And, in the other race of appointed Senator Ricketts (R-NE) and challenger Preston Love Jr. (D-NE) for former Senator Sasse’s seat? Well, what of Mr Love? I have yet to see a poll on this race. But looking at Senator Ricketts’ On The Issues summary to the right, it’s clear that he’s not going to be namby-pamby on the abortion issue, and that should spell political trouble for the Senator and former governor. (Yes, there’s the red dot marking his position, waaaaay to the right – he must be a contender for Most Conservative Senator!).
Time for a poll!
Where Are We At? Let Me Consult The Map The Baby Upchucked On
Despite the negative predictions of right wing pundits and politicians, the pro-choice wave is surging in, just as it did during nearly all the special elections since Dobbs was announced. Women are outraged at the decision, and in those States where anti-abortion politicians control the issue, laws have been passed outlawing the medical procedure. I use the word control because some States, despite being conservative, have clauses in their Constitutions guaranteeing access to abortion.
These laws are the production of inept politicians. I use the word politician with precision; these laws may be competently written, making them technically good lawmakers. But politicians, real politicians in the American tradition, know that persuasion generally precedes effective laws, and a law passed through subterfuge, or invalidated through dubious reasoning, as with Dobbs, or simply rammed through by a minority that happens to be in power, is despised and can expand and harden opposition. Politicians who don’t understand the proper contribution of the model of a liberal democracy to American politics, whether it’s in the context of abortion or the management of the transgender issue, is a continuing failure regardless of the success or failure of the issue at hand, and, for the benefit of the State or the Country, should be dumped out on their ass.
I don’t care how much they scream But God Said ! or But Who Will Think Of The Children ?! That’s not how we do things here in the States, and if you don’t like it you, can lump it.
And we’re going to see this, and continue to see this, when it comes to Dobbs. The real question is the magnitude of the reaction. Here are the races that I think have become interesting:
- John Barrasso (R-WY) vs. Scott Morrow. There are no polls, so I’m moving it to the hot races list.
- Kevin Cramer (R-ND) vs Katrina Christiansen (D-ND), for which there are no credible polls, but at least a few people are beginning to suggest Cramer is vulnerable. I don’t think so, but I keep an open mind when it comes to me being wrong.
- Ted Cruz (R-TX) vs Colin Allred (D-TX) is definitely a hot race, as earlier news in this post makes clear.
- Deb Fischer (R-NE) vs Dan Osborn (I-NE) is another hot race, as a previous post indicated Osborn is pushing Fischer hard.
- Josh Hawley (R-MO) vs Lance Kunce (D-MO) may also be hotter than I predicted.
- If Senator Fischer (R-NE) is in trouble, her colleague Pete Ricketts (also R-NE) may also be in trouble. Come on, pollsters, prove me right.
- Rick Scott (R-FL) is barely holding off Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, so this is hot.
- Jim Justice (R-WV)’s position with regard to challenger Glenn Elliott is not known at the moment, so it’s hot until it’s not. It’s probably not.
I left Senators Wicker (R-MS) and Blackburn (R-TN) off as they seem relatively safe, though lacking relevant polling.
Until next time, stay safe.
[Published Aug 26]
