In The Dash
Last night I heard snippets of various DNC speeches as my Arts Editor caught up on the news, and a common theme is that this is going to be a close Presidential race. But I have my doubts. Between dementia and Dobbs, Federal debt and a pack of fourth-raters (Representatives Comer, Jordan, Gaetz, Greene, Boebert are just some of the names that come to mind), I suspect Harris will win all the States Biden won, with Georgia being the biggest question mark, and she’ll pick up North Carolina, which is afflicted with a nutty Republican candidate for Governor, current Lt Governor Robinson, and one more State. But which?
Possibly huge Ohio, which may be so repulsed by Senator Vance’s poor judgment, along with Trump’s narcissism, that they may go Democratic. Ah, but for a poll … oh, here comes one now! Fairleigh Dickinson University (2.6/3 on the FiveThirtyEight pollster rating scale) is giving Harris a lead nationally:
Voters nationally give Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris an edge over former President Donald Trump in November’s election by a seven-point margin (50 to 43), but race and gender remains central to the vote. When voters are made to think about the race or gender of the candidates, Harris’ lead grows substantially; when they’re not, support is essentially tied. Harris is also helped by strong support among the slightly less than half of men who reject traditionally masculine identities. Trump’s strongest support is among men who hold traditionally masculine identities, while women and other men strongly favor Harris.
Caveats galore, but I think it’s a sign of a future where Trump tries desperately to slime Harris into a coma, and she and Walz pick and pick at him while letting him hang himself with the voters. A seven point lead is bloody huge, you know, when Harris’ predecessor, President Biden, was chronically trailing.
Keep in mind, of course, that the popular vote does not categorically determine the Electoral College vote, which is a scandal in the minds of many Americans. And then there’s the perplexing Trumpian claim that he doesn’t need any more votes, he has plenty of votes. Maybe votes is a synonym for money? Maybe he’ll employ violence to gain a victory? Using fourth-raters prone to delusion isn’t a promising fighting force, so it seems unlikely. There is some concern about the electoral positions being occupied by MAGA and allies, but a reminder to them that abusing their positions could end poorly should help matters.
Or does Trump think a depleted Russian Army will come pouring over Niagara Falls? OK, I said that purely for the humor. Mostly.
Look for more pollsters to echo these results, even amplifying them much to Trump’s frustration.
Oh, And This …
From WaPo:
