Sheesh, so many polls. Is it time for an enema after last time?
What About the Democratic National Convention?
Will it affect the Senate races? In a few select cases, yes, as the Senators and challengers get a chance to communicate with attendees, physical and digital. And if the Democratic Party can communicate a positive message concerning the economy, the Gaza War, and abortion, they stand to pick up a few more votes, both for their Presidential nominee, Vice President Harris and for various Senate races.
On the other hand, miscues could hurt them. The Gaza War protesters, who think they can control the Party’s intentions towards the Gaza War through violent protest, must be handled firmly but fairly. While protest has a place in American politics, violent protest is not acceptable and may even indicate that the protesters are being manipulated by foreign, overseas forces.
In short, don’t look for any big swings.
How About Abortion Access?
This is the biggest issue of this election cycle, and every State that has an abortion access constitutional amendment on the ballot will attract voters who would not ordinarily vote, regardless of whether it’s pro- or anti- access.
Endangering lives and choice will do that, as previous votes have decisively shown.
So every State in which an amendment relating to abortion appears will see a surge in voters who will look to vote for more access to abortion, and against those who would deny them. This will be part of the Democratic strategy, but don’t be surprised if Republicans try to introduce opposite amendments as well.
And When The T. Rex Trumpets?
- A Shock To Big Red? Credible polls for Nebraska are in short supply, so when YouGov (2.9, putting it at #4 on the FiveThirtyEight board) speaks, it’s worth a listen. YouGov is giving incumbent Senator Deb Fischer (R-NB) the lead over challenger Dan Osborn (I-NB), but at 43%-41% and within the margin of error, this is a race, not a rout. For a comparison, Senator Fischer won her 2018 reelection race by nearly twenty points.There are a couple of stories here. Mr Osborn apparently played the Democrats into not putting forth a candidate, meaning there’ll be no vote splitting between Democrats and Osborn. Indeed, I saw somewhere that Nebraska Democrats have endorsed Osborn. He’s a vet, and a union member & leader, which means that union members across the State may vote for him based on affinity. Here’s an Osborn profile by Politico.
On The Issues: Senator Deb Fischer (R-NB).
This almost certainly has an abortion component, as Dobbs was celebrated by many in Nebraska, but fatal pregnancy complications potentially afflicts nearly all women and, secondarily, men and children. Mr Osborn’s statement on abortion carefully treads the line between those who are for abortion availability and those against, casting it as a privacy issue, as did Roe v. Wade. And don’t forget that the Senator even voted against a bill intended to protect contraception. Her On The Issues summary, to the right, indicates she is an extremist as well.
Mr Osborn’s independent political status evades the independent who cannot stomach Democrats, which may or may not have been Mr Osborn’s intention. I won’t pretend to know how Democrats are perceived in Nebraska, but certainly attempts to inculcate loathing for Democrats has been a salient point in Republican propaganda for years, even decades. It seems like half of right wing pundit’s Erick Erickson’s posts feature that thought.
But, perhaps most importantly, is the concept of a Red Wall. Election followers are well aware of the Blue Wall of the Democrats, and how its “crumbling” doomed Mz Clinton’s 2016 run. This is a reference to the victories of Mr. Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Although not mentioned nearly as much, there’s a similar Red Wall (or Red Sea, I come to find out) of such States as the Dakotas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and … Nebraska.
Kansas has already shown signs of crumbling, to continue the analogy, as the governor’s seat has been held by Democrat Laura Kelly (D-KA) since 2018, or two elections. Is it now Nebraska’s turn to admit that the extremists of the right are incompetent and unpalatable in the area of governance? Their northern neighbor has certainly demonstrated this with the antics of the Kansas Republicans. See, for example, former Governor Brownback (R-KA) on this blog and many others.
This race has certainly made it to the hot list, although the lack of polls makes that statement nearly meaningless.
The only fly in the ointment is that Osborn sponsored the poll. But, as I state elsewhere, I don’t worry much about undue influence of high quality pollsters like YouGov.
Finally, the reference to Big Red was not originally to the Republican Party, but to the University of Nebraska Cornhuskers football team, which was known, in the days of Coach Tom Osborne (later Rep Osborne (R-NB)!), as The Big Red Machine, or just Big Red. I’ll take the word play option around left end, though, and gather in the Party before throwing against the grain.
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On The Issues: Matthew Corey (R-CT).
Connecticut primaries have concluded, with Senator Murphy (D-CT) not facing any opposition, while Republican Matthew Corey (R-CT) advanced to the general election with 54.7% of the Republican ballots. While in another State that small number for Mr Corey might be disconcerting, in Connecticut Senator Murphy is expected to coast to an easy victory, even if Mr. Corey had collected 100% of the ballots. However, it’s worth noting that Mr Corey appears to qualify as a moderate and not an extremist, although data to this effect may be a trifle sketchy. Still, we may find that Mr Corey is the future of the Republican Party.
- In Arizona, WPA Intelligence (FiveThirtyEight rating of only 1.7) is only giving Rep Gallego (D-AZ) a two point lead, 48%-46%. The trick here? The sponsor is super PAC Club for Growth Action, a conservative group that’s been around for decades. Media azcentral does mention the sponsor and its antecedents, and, to quote:
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego led his Republican rival Kari Lake by 2 percentage points in a poll released Thursday by a conservative group that still sees the race as close.
I bring this up as a measure of how much the media is just blindly reporting numbers, and how much they’re reporting context and suggesting some information is of a doubtful nature. In this article azcentral does a good job. I’ve seen other media report doubtful polls with no criticisms, implicit or explicit. This article has several not included in the above quote.
At this point, I’m thinking Gallego wins by ten as the Democrat messaging nails Lake on abortion and her generally unacceptable behavior since the 2022 gubernatorial behavior. While credible media cannot ignore an endorsed Senate candidate from a major political party, they can, and should, completely ignore her if & when she loses the Senate race. Hooting about supposed election cheating, with neither evidence nor relevant credentials, does not make for news, despite what newsroom editors might think.
I am assuming the undercount for Democratic candidates that appeared in special election polls throughout the last couple of years persists through this election. If it does not, Gallego wins by 6-7 points.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies (at 1.8, not much better), which I’ve seen before, may have a conservative tilt, but it still gives Gallego the lead, 44%-39% or five point lead.
Meanwhile, top-rated The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) is giving Gallego a nine point lead at 51%-42%. That link leads to a paywall; data comes from FiveThirtyEight, as it always does. Almost.
Finally, an abortion rights constitutional amendment has qualified for the Arizona ballot. This amendment may not only ensure the defeat of Lake, but make it an overwhelming rejection. At least, I figure it ups the chances.
- The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) pollster combo suggests Senator Rosen (D-NV) is, indeed, increasing her lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) among likely voters, 49%-40%. Poll results for registered voters is 48%-37%, which I have to think is reflective of a certain disinterest in voting in Nevada. Regardless, Nevada is close to leaving the hot list as Republicans watch this dream fade away, given the results reported in the last Senate Campaign Update. Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8), for the record, gives Senator Rosen a much smaller lead at 41%-37%, which seems standard issue for this conservative pollster.
- On the other hand, Pennsylvania may be returning to the hot list. While the pollster Cygnal (2.1) has a fair rating, it also has a bit of tilt, inferred from out of line polling results and the language of its press releases (horn tootling bordering on bombast characteristic of the current crop of conservatives), so its results of 46%-42%, Senator Casey (D-PA) leading challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), aren’t much of a motivation to move Pennsylvania to the hot list. However, when Emerson College (2.9) gets a measurement of 48%-44%, it’s fair to say the race may be tightening up. Now, I have noticed Emerson College’s results tend to show tighter races than other pollsters, even top quality pollsters, so it may simply be a matter of how they’re interpreting the raw data. But it’s worth noting and remembering this poll result, even if Emerson College’s own press release says this:
In the U.S. Senate election between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick, 48% support Casey and 44% support McCormick; 8% are undecided. Since last month, Casey’s support among likely voters has stayed at 48%, while McCormick’s support among likely voters decreased from 47% to 44%.
If McCormick’s decline in numbers is not an illusion then he’s unlikely to take the traveling trophy of a Senate seat home in November or January. It remains true that other pollsters show Casey with a bigger lead, and whether this is a ripple in the electorate’s desires or a result of Emerson College techniques is unclear. The credibility interval for the Emerson College poll is given as ±3 points, which means the Casey lead could be one point, seven points, or something in between. The poll sponsor is RealClearPennsylvania, which appears to be a conservative organization; however, I tend to think that top quality pollsters, like Emerson College, will wisely refuse to skew their polls for clients, as to do otherwise is to risk reputation and, in the end, their very existence.
Also, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) gives Senator Casey the lead at 44%-36%, significantly larger than Emerson College. The latter uses a somewhat larger sample size, but I don’t know how much of either’s sample is from the chancier online world.
- In New Mexico, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) gives Senator Heinrich (D-NM) a lead of 42%-36% over challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM).
- Democratic Senate candidate Rep Kim (D-NJ) of New Jersey will be denied the advantages of appointed incumbency as Governor Murphy (D-NJ) has appointed George Helmy (D-NJ) to replace the scandal-ridden, convicted of accepting bribes, and resigning Senator Bob Menendez (was D-NJ, now I-NJ). Helmy is a former Chief of Staff to Governor Murphy and aide to Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), and I suspect this is a Thank You from New Jersey Democrats to a loyal and productive member.Senator Menendez has also withdrawn from the race for his seat. I expect Rep Kim will win easily, incumbent or not.
- The political site Crooks and Liars has an article from Joan McCarter, a name I recognize from Daily Kos, suggesting the sleeper race of the year might be that between North Dakota Senator Cramer (R-ND) and challenger Katrina Christiansen (D-ND). It sounds like a dream to me, but then most victories start with dreaming. Maybe McCarter’s evaluation of North Dakota as soft on Cramer is correct. I’m still thinking it’s a ten to twenty point loss for Christiansen, but I’d be happy to be proven wrong.
- Ben Wikler on Daily Kos reports on the State Constitutional Amendments that came up for approval by the electorate in Wisconsin during the recent primaries, and were roundly rejected at the urging of Democrats. To my ear, it sounds like the Democrats have stirred up normally disinterested voters, and since this was not about abortion, it shows that abortion is not the only governmental issue that can stir up voters. The Republicans are taking their last shots at securing power following the redistricting ordered by the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and it seems the electorate was having none of it, as all the Amendments were unexpectedly rejected. Next stop? November. If there’s a lot of anger at Republicans for their proposals, we may see my neighbor to the east turn as blue as Minnesota, at least in the State Legislature.
- Abortion access will be on the ballot in Missouri, where we also have a contest between Senator Hawley (R-MO) and Lucas Kunce (D-MO). It will bring out concerned voters to try to legalize abortion, or not, but I doubt there’ll be enough Oh, yeah! votes to push Mr Kunce over the wall. Still, I could have it wrong.
Final Thoughts For This Edition
The Republicans, so confident at the beginning of this cycle, seem to be in deep trouble. Some may not realize it, but Senators such as Fischer (R-NB), Scott (R-FL), and even Cruz (R-TX) are discovering their races are not going as easily as the Republican base might have imagined six months ago.
I expect this will extend to the House races, and swing districts will be mostly won by Democrats in November.
