Another ride on the giant catfish? How did that last one go?
What Should I Think of The Bullfinch Group?
Well, I don’t know. FiveThirtyEight doesn’t know about them, so they get no rating and presumably formed in the last couple of years. On the other hand, mastergardener2k on Daily Kos claims Nate Silver, who is no longer with FiveThirtyEight but has founded another blog, Silver Bulletin, is incorporating Bullfinch’s results into his meta-poll results. Silver Bulletin is a pay blog, and I respect that, but I’m not in the mood to open the wallet, so I’ll just relay the claim and let it lie there.
And What About BSG/GS Strategy Group?
Again, an unknown pollster. However, the sponsor of their polls is the venerable organization now known as The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Presumably, they will use a high quality pollster as a reputational necessity. And this might be them.
Run Down The Data On Your Bandersnatch! Wear Your Flashiest Spurs!
- In One Of The Silliest Polling Decisions Of The Season: Associated Industries of Florida sponsored a poll that found Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) with a 52%-42% lead over former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). The pollster is … McLaughlin & Associates, with a hefty, ahem, FiveThirtyEight rating of 0.5/3, putting them at the bottom of FiveThirtyEight ratings, position #277, only above those pollsters so horrific that FiveThirtyEight refuses to rate them any longer. The media cited by FiveThirtyEight is Florida’s Voice, and shame on the latter for not noting the exceptionally dubious rating of McLaughlin & Associates in their report.But wait long enough and another poll comes along. This one is from Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research (I have a note saying they have a rating of 2.0, but I’m not able to find them in FiveThirtyEight’s current ratings), and it gives Senator Scott a lead, but it’s only 47%-43%, which puts a different face on this race. It also measures Mr. Trump (R) leading Mz. Harris (D) in Florida at this time, but only 50%-47%. Florida Atlantic University notes that
While a specific margin of error cannot be assigned due to the online component, a poll of this size typically has a margin of error of +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level, with higher margins for subsamples.
It’s possible that Florida voters may be tiring of Mr. Trump’s antics, much like Great Britain tired of Mr. Johnson’s last year, and that may be bad news for Senator Scott, a close ally of Mr Trump. In fact, Newsday notes that Senator Scott, who, in a former life, was a rich businessman (who ran a corrupt business, but that’s for a different rant while claiming to be ignorant of what eventually got his company convicted in court), is filling his campaign’s coffers from his own checking account:
Florida Senator Rick Scott speaks during the second day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 16, 2024. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Scott’s Democratic Senate challenger, has warned she is working to flip Florida to a blue state.
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former congresswoman who is now running for Scott’s Senate seat, said that Florida turning blue is “happening” in response to apparent issues surrounding Scott’s reelection campaign.
Mucarsel-Powell was responding to reports that Scott is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money on his reelection campaign. Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman posted on X, formerly Twitter, that Scott recently “dumped” another $725,000 of his own money into his campaign account. “Two days ago he put $31,996.67. Aug. 6 he put in $850,000,” Sherman added.
Are donations drying up? Or is this a bridge loan to the next group of donations? The latter suggests poor money management practices on Senator Scott’s part; the former, a much worse situation.
- Unknown and unrated pollster The Bullfinch Group is giving Michigan’s Rep Slotkin (D-MI) an almost shocking ten point lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI), 48%-38%. Is this a liberal slanted pollster? I’d almost think so, but the same poll also gives Senators Baldwin (D-WI) and Casey (D-PA) large, but not out of line, margins; only the Michigan margin is out of line with current polls. But today’s out of line poll may be tomorrow’s in-line poll. We’ll have to see if this is a real outlier, or a leader.And now BSG/GS Strategy Group, working for The Cook Political Report, has a poll, although keep in mind that they are also an unrated pollster. What do they have? Slotkin leads 50%-42%. Not quite the lead in Bullfinch Group’s poll, but not far off.
Then comes along the Frankenstein monster of Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (1.7) with another poll, a more reasonable 47%-44% lead for Slotkin. Is this coming down to Earth, or is Fabrizio/Impact behind the times – or even slanting towards Rogers? Their sponsor is the AARP, which doesn’t strike me as tilting one way or the other.
- In North Dakota, challenger Katrina Christiansen (D-ND) is, rather mysteriously, using Lake Research Partners (1.2) to discover Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND) has a 51%-38% lead. It’s bad news from a questionable pollster. Why spend that money? Or is a 13 point margin not considered bad in North Dakota?
- Unknown and unrated pollster ActiVote gives Ohio’s Senator Brown (D-OH) an entirely reasonable lead of 53%-48% over challenger and Trump endorsee Bernie Moreno (R-OH). The trick here? A margin of error of 4.9 points, no doubt due to using a small (n=400) voter sample.
- Montana gets another poll that’s hard to evaluate: American Pulse Research & Polling, yet another unknown pollster, gives challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT?) a 51%-45% lead over Senator Tester (D-MT).And, at the last moment, there’s another poll, this one from RMG Research (holder of a respectable 2.3 rating), this one giving Senator Tester a lead, 49% 44%, that is also close to the magical 50%. I do not recognize the sponsor of this poll, Napolitan Institute, but judging from one of their projects’ tag lines, I think they’re Democrat-aligned:
Expose the Elite 1%
Whether their partisanship affects their pollster, RMG, remains to be seen. But these numbers do align with that of respectable pollsters, while Sheehy’s lead is the opinion of unknown pollsters.
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On The Issues: Rep Gallego (D-AZ).
Two pollsters chart the fight over the soon-to-be vacant US Senate seat from Arizona, a contest between Rep Gallego (D-AZ) and former newscaster and election-denier Kari Lake (R-AZ). As neither pollster is known, I’m wondering if I should even bother, but I’ve come this far into the dead-end canyon, I might as well see
the size of the beast making all that racketwhat’s there. Peak Insights (not rated), sponsored by the NRSC, a Republican organization, finds the race to be even. Given the partisan and nebulous nature of the polling, I think this is most likely delusional, although notably the NRSC references our second poll. The second pollster is BSG/GS Strategy Group, working for The Cook Political Report, and they have issued a more believable 51%-42% lead for Gallego. The truth may lie somewhere in the middle, but, to be observant, Gallego offers experience and a reality-based view of the world, if with a tilt to the liberal side, while Lake has no experience, a conspiracy-based mindset, a tendency to go for the throat which is incompatible in a democracy in a very complex world, and a thoroughly repugnant allegiance to Mr Trump. This should be an easy promotion for Gallego to the Senate. Just sayin’, Arizonans. - In the Minnesota primary, Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) easily won her primary, while former NBA player Royce White (R-MN) (no relation) won the Republican nomination in a badly fractured race – he only collected 36+% of the Republican ballots. Klobuchar’s ballot count is more than quadruple that of White’s. This is a heckuva of a mountain for White to climb. Royce, that is.
- To the surprise of no one, Senator Baldwin (D-WI) and Eric Hovde (R-WI?) won their respective primaries in Wisconsin. Baldwin was unchallenged, and Hovde dominated his primary with 86+% of the Republican ballots. However, Baldwin remains the leader in the polls, and that may get worse rather than better, given the clownish behavior of the Wisconsin Republican Party. Independents who want a better alternative to the Wisconsin Democrats may have to kick the Republicans in the teeth to get their attention – or join the Party while refusing to accept the current nominees. That’s the traditional approach, anyways, and, given the out of bounds behavior of the Republicans, physically wrestling officials out of the Party may be the only alternative.
Since I’m here, the above-mentioned BSG/GS Strategy Group, working for The Cook Political Report, has Baldwin leading, 50%-43%. This is closer than some recent polling. TIPP Insights (1.8), sponsored by American Greatness, gives Baldwin a 50%-43% lead as well. As the latter is almost certainly Republican-aligned, the admission of Baldwin’s commanding position is notable.
- Senator Hirono (D-HI) easily won her primary in her reelection effort in Hawaii, and her opponent from the Republicans will be Bob McDermott (R-HI), a former State Senator and former Marine. I fear this will not be close.
- This has to be causing shock waves in Nevada … except it’d have to come from a highly rated pollster, and not unknown (see above) BSG/GS Strategy Group, working for The Cook Political Report. They claim that Senator Rosen (D-NV) is leading challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) by an astounding 54%-36%. This is the kind of numbers that make me wonder if I should just ignore them … or consider them prescient. I figure Mr Brown is doomed, due to his position on abortion if nothing else, but not that doomed.
- In Texas, challenger Rep Allred (D-TX) is facing an unexpected hurdle to leap – his own Party:
Three and a half years into an unprecedented border crisis impacting Texans in border communities and the state’s largest cities, high-profile Democrats are openly endorsing a Republican candidate for Senate who they never endorsed before: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. [Washington Examiner]
Nothing like having an anchor in a 400m sprint. Then again, this is Texas, the home of money and its acquisition.
- In Vermont, Senator Sanders (I-VT) won the Democratic primary and Gerald Malloy (R-VT) won his primary. In terms of ballot numbers, it’s Sanders 2-1, roughly, and that will probably translate to the general election. I doubt any pollsters will bother with this race.
- And finally … Mississippi challenger Ty Pinkins (D-MS) is having a meet & greet in a couple of towns where my maternal grandparents and uncles once resided. Well, I think it was yesterday, actually:
PASS CHRISTIAN, Miss. (WLOX) – On the ballot in the Magnolia State, Democrat Ty Pinkins is running against Republican incumbent Roger Wicker for his U.S. Senate seat. …
The event is happening at the Randolph Center (315 Clark Avenue) from 6 until 8 p.m. [Biloxi-Gulfport WLOX]
And that’s all, really. I’ve not been there in 50+ years, and I don’t remember much more than bees in the walls of my grandparents’ house, nasty nasty heat & humidity, and going fishing once in the Gulf of Mexico. The relatives are all gone, as far as I know, with the only cousin moving away to the Eastern Seaboard, unless the uncles had some productive flings which they kept secret from the rest of us. Or even grandpa. Just a sentimental memory now. Mr Pinkins? I have no idea if he’s making headway against Senator Wicker (R-MS). No polls, no nothing.
Reminders And Analysis
I’m ignoring Pennsylvania and Wisconsin poll reports, as I suspect these former hot races are more or less decided, but I will note that quality pollster Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research (2.4) has Casey up by twelve points, although not over 50%, yet. As ever, most of my hard data comes from FiveThirtyEight – my thanks to them for making this data public!
Insofar as seriously contested races go, the Democrats are defending well, with the understandable exception of West Virginia, and possibly Montana. Possible Republican losses are very limited, although Florida and Texas remain possibilities. Note that polling in Republican states is also somewhat limited.
In general, it seems the numbers have solidified for Democrats since President Biden retired from the race in favor of the Harris/Walz ticket. And if the Nevada result of Rosen leading by 18 points turns out to be mildly accurate, there may be Republican seats, even in this season of Republicans defending only ten or so seats, in danger of being flipped.
And it seems to be raining polls, now. A turbulent Presidential campaign has riled up the pollsters!
(Published Aug 16, 2024. Don’t mind me, just tracking a possible problem with the blogging software.)
