Monthly Archives: August 2024

Hiding from the monsters:

Trump had his time in the sun, but now he's finding out what happens when the predator becomes the prey. pic.twitter.com/Ti8yZn68pS

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) August 30, 2024

In The Dash

Suffolk University (FiveThirtyEight rating of 2.9) has this to say about the Presidential race:

Vice President Kamala Harris has engineered an eight-point turnaround in the race for president by overtaking former President Donald Trump, according to a new  Suffolk University/USA TODAY national poll of likely voters for president taken  immediately after the Democratic National Convention.

Among likely voters, Harris (47.6%) led Trump (43.3%) with independent Cornel West (1.5%), Green Party Jill Stein (1.2%), and Libertarian Chase Oliver (0.7%) following, with 4.8% undecided.

4+ point lead isn’t much, truth be told. But Harris/Walz has two more months to draw comparisons and contrasts with Trump / Vance.

Oh, And This …

Gallup Party Preferences

Something for Democrats to consider.

Life preservers, made of sugar and guaranteed to survive contact with salt water, come and get your own! We’ll even engrave your name on them as we sink! Don’t believe everything you read.

There May Be A Tsunami Out There

Keeping an eye on the reporting on the Presidential race, as well as how the statistical trends of pollsters are leaning, and the name McGovern comes to mind. George McGovern (D-SD) won the Democratic nomination for President in 1972, but, in the subsequent general election, lost to Republican incumbent President Nixon in the Electoral College, 520 to 17. The loss, the rejection, was so bad that McGovern and his wife reportedly considered emigrating. (I have since heard, from a politico friend, that Vice President Walter Mondale’s (D-MN) loss to Reagan was worse at 525-13. Since he’s from Minnesota, I’ll give him a pass.)

Will Trump become the next McGovern? And what does his continued slide mean for the Senate campaigns and elections?

If a McGovern tsunami sweeps over the Republicans and Trump, they won’t take it laying down. I think there’s evidence that some pollsters are skewing results, and others are not adjusting their electoral models for the influx of voters motivated to vote against Dobbs and its supporters – I’m thinking of highly rated Emerson College, which appears to be out of step with other top pollsters. See Wisconsin, below.

Pollsters and their sponsors are certainly motivated this season. Whether it’s highly competitive, as most pundits and politicians proclaim, or a blowout, as I predict, this election season will be more historic than most.

We may see the end of the Republican Party in its Gingrichian mode.

Over The Same Old Ketchup & Cigarette Smoke Stained Table

• In the race for retiring Senator Romney’s (R-UT) Utah Senate seat, Rep John Curtis (R-UT) has a substantial lead, if I may understate the case, over his rivals of 56%-22%-9%, those rivals being, respectively, Caroline Gleich (D-UT) and Carlton Bowen (Independent American Party of Utah). The pollster is HarrisX (unknown to FiveThirtyEight). Rep Curtis seems to be the odds on favorite to become Senator Curtis, despite the status of the pollster, and I shan’t report on Utah results again unless something goes horribly wrong for Mr. Curtis. Yes, I know I said that last time. Shame on me.
• The Montana Republican Party has sponsored a poll by Public Opinion Strategies (1.7) to persuade you that challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT?) leads Senator Tester (D-MT) in Montana, 51%-44%. A highly partisan sponsor of a pollster with a definitely mediocre history, producing results that diverge from a higher quality pollster’s results by 13 points? I’ll regard that with suspicion and, yes, a pinch of salt and some vinegar. Join me.
• Meanwhile, in Michigan a similar scenario yields different results. TIPP Insights (1.8), working for right-wing American Greatness, finds that Rep Slotkin (D-MI) continues to hold a substantial lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI), 49%-39%. This is similar to the last poll from The Bullfinch Group. Are they trying to build cred with the general audience? Or simply believe that truth and honesty is an important facet of polling analysis?

  In other polling news for Michigan, Emerson College (2.9) gives Slotkin a lead of 47%-41%, while Fabrizio Ward (unknown under that name) calls it EVEN at 43% apiece. Notably, Fabrizio Ward used a sample size only half that of Emerson College and has a margin of error of ±4.9% compared to ±3.4% for the latter, so along with being unknown, it may not be operating with enough data.

• My last update for Nebraska speculated an alleged faux pas by former Senator Sasse (R-NE) in Florida might shift voting patterns. Now, the Secretary of State for Nebraska is approving not one, but two abortion-related amendments to the Nebraska Constitution. It’s not hard to imagine everyone sensitive to the issue lining up for hours to vote in this election, and those who are against restrictions also voting against Republican candidates for just about everything, now is it?
• In New Jersey, Republican vier (if you vie for something, are you a vier? How about that, you are!) for the Menendez Senate seat Curtis Bashaw (R-NJ) has sponsored a poll by National Research (1.8) that shows his rival, Rep Kim (D-NJ) ahead by only five points, 38%-33%. Wishful forecasting? Rep Kim is not popular in New Jersey? Well, this ridiculous quote of the “polling memo” might tell us something:
  

  “Curtis Bashaw’s unique profile as a political outsider and job creator contrasts well against Kim’s career as a government bureaucrat and politician collecting government paychecks,” the polling memo states. “Bashaw’s common-sense centrism also contrasts well against Kim’s embrace of far left ideology. With a subpar image, Kim could very well be vulnerable in the home-stretch post Labor Day.”

  Bashaw’s profile is not unique, think of Hovde, Sheehy, Moreno, and several more that I don’t recall (I plead early morning-itis). The phrases job creator and common sense centrism are classic Republican descriptors designed to contrast positively with politician collecting government paychecks, but it’s a false contrast, because it implies that politicians occupy sinecures while producing nothing. In reality, the creation and refinement of laws is a critical enterprise in the vast experiment in democracy that is America, now isn’t it? This contrast also has the unexpected consequence of implying Mr. Bashaw is seeking a sinecure, although I don’t expect the media to notice and point that out. Finally, embrace of far left ideology is a bit of Republican boiler-plate, designed to infuriate and strengthen their base, and frighten the independents.

  Putting it all together and I’d go with wishful forecasting. A 1.8 pollster rating is mediocre, and I can’t say I remember them from any previous campaign. These results are lower than other pollsters’, and New Jersey is notoriously Democratic.

• In Arizona, the people with a front seat view of the action are leaning away from Republican candidate Kari Lake (R-AZ) and towards Democratic Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ):
  

  Bisbee Mayor Ken Budge announced his endorsement Wednesday, making him the latest border mayor [in Arizona] to back Gallego’s Senate bid as immigration and border security remain top issues in the 2024 cycle. Budge praised Gallego in a statement first shared with the Washington Examiner, lauding the House Democrat as the “best candidate in this race to address the situation at the border.” [Washington Examiner]

  I don’t really know the effect of such endorsements on the voting public, but on the border issue it may be quite a lot.

  But Gallego may not need endorsements, as Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8), sponsored by right-wing Fox News, gives Gallego a 56%-41%, which may serve not only to move him to the Senate, but burn down an Arizona Republican Party that permitted itself to be flim-flammed into selecting Lake as the Republican candidate. This is what happens when a Party is taken over by fourth-raters, and, while entertaining, is a bit of a tragedy in a political system dependent on the Parties balancing each other in the difficult act known as governance.

  In other polls for Arizona, highly rated Emerson College (2.9) gives Gallego a miniscule 49%-42% lead, and Noble Predictive Insights (no slouch at 2.4) also gives Gallego a seven point lead, 47%-40%.

• Maryland’s former Governor, Larry Hogan (R-MD) has pulled even with Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) in the race for the open US Senate seat at 46% apiece … if you believe Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (1.7). Polling has been scarce for Maryland, but this result is still out of line for what little we have out there. I’d waiting for confirming polls from reputable pollsters before getting bent out of shape.
• In Texas, Public Policy Polling (1.4), working for Democratic partisan PAC Clean and Prosperous America, finds Senator Cruz (R-TX) leading challenger Rep Allred (D-TX), 44%-40%., and only by two points if candidates other than Cruz and Allred are excluded. The four point lead scenario seems more reality-based, but in both cases the gap is less than the margin of error. Now if only Public Policy Polling were more credible. Meanwhile, unknown pollster ActiVote is giving Cruz a ten point lead, 55%-45%. This result is well off of previous polls by known pollsters, so I’m not paying attention to it.
• In Florida, Public Policy Polling (1.4), working for Democratic partisan PAC Clean and Prosperous America, finds Senator Scott (R-FL) leading former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) by three points, 46%-43%, which is within the margin of error. As with Texas, a more impressive pollster would make this more interesting news. In more questionable news, Cherry Communications (1.1) gives Senator Scott a lead of 51%-44%. The sponsor of the poll? Republican Party-aligned Florida Chamber of Commerce. A partisan sponsor, using a pollster at the bottom of the ratings, is not a respectable combination.
• Given the prominence of the Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8) / Fox News pairing, I’ll ignore my pronouncement concerning Nevada and note that the polling pair gives Senator Rosen (D-NV) a 55%-41%, or fourteen point lead, over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV), which is similar to recent previous polls. On the other end of the pollster spectrum, Strategies 360 (1.1) has Senator Rosen up 50%-38%. Close ’nuff, I suspect. Sitting in this group is also Emerson College (2.9) with a result of 50%-40%.
• YouGov (2.9) gives Missouri’s Senator Hawley (R-MO) a big lead over challenger Lucas Kunce (D-MO), 53%-42%. That’s not a good sign for Mr Kunce.
• Do Businessmen Have To Be Successful To Win? No, probably not. Look at Mr Trump, after all. So this news out of West Virginia will probably have minimal impact on the  race for the open Senate seat between Gov Jim Justice (R-WV) and former Mayor Glenn Elliott (D-WV):
  

  As attorneys for West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice’s two adult children prepare to defend their motion in a local circuit court to keep the historic Greenbrier Resort from being auctioned off next week, a new bank is claiming the family defaulted on another loan.

  And despite calls to drop out of the U.S. Senate race by the West Virginia Democratic Party over numerous news reports about the woes of his resort, Justice has remained silent. [The Parkersburg News and Sentinel]

  Even Justice also owes millions in back taxes to the state and county … will have little impact. To me, he sounds like a scam artist, perhaps a very, very good one. But to West Virginians, he’s just a guy struggling to make a living. I’ll leave sarcasm to the comedians in the crowd.

  And, no, retiring Senator Manchin (now I-WV), current occupant of the seat, has not announced he’s going to run after all. The national atmosphere certainly calls for it, Senator Manchin. Oh, wait, that’s the Minnesota State Fair, which is just outside my window. Sorry, comedians.

• And in the shocking news of this issue, Emerson College (2.9) is giving Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a one point lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 49%-48%. An outlier? A predictor? Recent polls have given Senator Baldwin a far larger lead, some reaching into double digits. Notably, Emerson College is giving Mr Trump an unsurprising one point lead over Vice President Harris in Wisconsin, while Morning Consult (1.8 – not nearly as impressive a rating), for Bloomberg News, finds Harris leading Trump in Wisconsin by 8 points, 52%-44%, which I find barely believable at this stage. I have to wonder if Emerson College isn’t adjusting its electoral model to account for new voters, or if Morning Consult has adjusted too much.

  And Fabrizio Ward (unknown) gives Senator Baldwin a five point lead, 48%-43%. I see that Fabrizio, along with using only half the sample size of Emerson College, also conducted their survey Aug. 19-21, compared to Emerson College’s Aug. 25-28. News grows stale quickly in this electoral season. It takes an exceptional bit of news to have staying power, such as the Dobbs decision. Otherwise, blink and it’s gone from the public consciousness.

And In Conclusion, I’d Like To Say …

This section intentionally left blank.

[published Aug 30, 2024]

Autogolpe:

Quite the windbag, it was.

While reading Professor Richardson’s latest missive, I ran across this passage:

It’s hard to look away from the reality that the Republican senators could have stopped this catastrophe at many points in Trump’s term, at the very least by voting to convict Trump at his first impeachment trial. At the time, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) said, “Out of one hundred senators, you have zero who believe you that there was no quid pro quo. None. There’s not a single one.” Republican senators nonetheless stood behind Trump. “This is not about this president. It’s not about anything he’s been accused of doing,” then–majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told his colleagues. “It has always been about November 3, 2020. It’s about flipping the Senate.”

And now I want to be a cartoonist. My cartoon would show Mr Trump ascending a ladder, no doubt a rear view, and each rung, in classic editorial cartoon fashion, would be composed of a Senator, with name attached, who voted against a verdict of guilty.

The question would be the goal for which Trump ascends. Maybe just a label: The Fascist States of America. And McConnell could be seen muttering, The Senate is more important than the Country! as Trump steps on his head.

Darn my lack of talent!

Steve Benen finds the behavior of Republican Parties of various States puzzling:

Last month, CNN reported that Republicans from seven battleground states agreed to send “fake electors and others who worked to upend the 2020 election results to represent their state parties at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.”

Not all of the fake electors who served as convention delegates were under criminal indictment — but some were, and the party didn’t seem to care.

It’s against this backdrop that Michigan Republicans backed indicted fake electors, too.

As the criminal charges piled up, it seemed implausible that GOP officials would extend rewards to those who were caught serving as fake electors. And yet, here we are. [Maddowblog]

Actually, it’s very plausible. The Republican Party is currently built on unshakable allegiance, and in fact has been since the days of Rep Earl Landgrebe (R-IN), whose loyalty to President Nixon (R) was unshakeable. The Party asked the “fake electors” to go out and do something, well, frankly wrong, and now we’re witnessing their Party rewards: asked to be convention delegates.

Party members are being reminded that loyalty to the Party and its demands is more important than loyalty to the Country and its secular moral code.

Without this action, the Party would risk gradual destruction as members realized that there was no rewards for putting oneself on the line. Only by rewarding them can a Party run by fourth-raters and ne’er-do-wells hope to survive.

At least, in its current form and under current management. Current management being conmen, grifters, and others of that type.

But that’s what’s going on here.

In The Dash

Rather infamous Kaplan Strategies (2.0) is measuring our candidates for President nationally and finds … oh, you don’t know why they’re infamous? As I noted here, Kaplan’s reliability is dubious:

[Kaplan is] the pollsters who gave Nevada Republican Senate nominee candidate Jeffrey Gunter, the sponsor of the particular poll, a 1 point lead [in the primary], while other pollsters gave Sam Brown a 38 point lead; Brown won by 40+ points.

So assessing the reliability of this poll is problematic, but also interesting. Why? Here’s RedState.com’s report on the poll, and they get kudos on putting the bad news right up front.

President Donald J. Trump trailed his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, 45 percent to 52 percent with Likely Voters, and then among Registered Voters, Trump trailed Harris with 46 percent to her 50 percent, according to the Kaplan Strategies poll put in the field Aug. 23 through Aug. 24.

As I prefer the likely voter scenario over the registered voter scenario, and that’s what I report in my Senate Campaign Updates, I’ll go with the seven point lead among likely voters.

Surveying FiveThirtyEight’s list of recent Presidential polls, Kaplan Strategies has no sponsor listed, so it’s difficult to say if this poll should be considered skewed, at least for folks like you and me. That same list shows this poll as giving Harris the biggest lead as of this writing, so perhaps it’s not skewed.

That said, the balance of Redstate’s report is rather interesting in that it attempts to obscure the import of Harris’ lead. This bit is particularly funny in view of the fact that a Vice President having to replace their President late in the race might be considered to be at a disadvantage against a former President, and yet …

“This is a very close race, and the Trump campaign is absorbing the full-on assault of Harris campaign—and yet, Harris, with everything going in her favor, is still not pulling away from Trump,” said Doug Kaplan, whose Florida-based political consulting firm conducted the poll, full details of which may be viewed below.

… Harris, with everything in her favor … really? Did he really think he could slip that phrase of indictment in there? Is he saying Mr. Trump is sub-standard, that he’s inferior?

I suspect that, by November 1st, we’re going to see polls giving Harris larger advantages, of 15 points, of 20 points. And if Mr Trump tries to leave the contest, Mr Vance will fare no better.

In short, we’re seeing what happens when a Party is dominated by fourth-raters whose main skill is shrieking RINO!, the base being constituted of folks who don’t consider competency or compromise or deep thinking to be legitimate political skills, and ruled by the Gingrichian diktats concerning inter-Party warfare. This has been a major theme of this blog, and I and long-term readers are now observing a nadir of the Republican Party, shepherded by members of all the major institutions of our government, as in the names Trump, Thomas, Alito, McConnell, Scott (pick your Senator Scott, neither has distinguished themselves in the positive aspect), Graham, McCarthy, Gaetz, Greene, Gosar, and the beat goes on.

Oh, And This …

The DJT stock chart as of about 2:30 pm today:

The last time I published a post on DJT, it’s price was $33/share, and, from this chart, we can see the price going up and down over the last six month. Notice that the merger that took DJT public was in early April, and if Trump decides to dump his stock in order to make money, DJT will plunge.

I suspect DJT will be heading downhill until November, at which point it may disappear completely. In this, it’ll act as a proxy for the popularity of Mr Trump, and as Mr Trump continues to exhibit the symptoms of narcissism and dementia, so the stock’s behavior will reflect. The one counter to this will be the attempts of outside parties to manipulate the price. Whether it works or not remains to be seen.

From NewScientist (3 August 2024):

The Komodo dragon, one of the planet’s fiercest reptiles, reinforces its teeth with an iron cap – and researchers think some dinosaurs may have had this adaptation too. …

Compared with human teeth, Komodo dragon enamel is incredibly thin, says [Aaron LeBlanc of King’s College London]. Along the serrations, the enamel is only 20 micrometres thick – about a quarter of the thickness of a human hair. The enamel in human teeth is about 100 times thicker.

The iron layer in Komodo dragon teeth is coated on top of this extremely thin layer of enamel. The team think it either gives the enamel extra strength to protect serrations while eating prey or acts as a barrier against acidic digestive juices.

One of the most dangerous critters in the world, and it turns out they’re seriously goth.

Or at least so I’d like to think.

Spiel:

a speech, especially one that is long and spoken quickly and is intended to persuade the person listening about something:

• a sales spiel
• They gave us a long spiel about why we needed to install double glazing in our house. [Cambridge Dictionary]

A bit old-fashioned, I suspect, but useful for period fiction or a desire to distinguish oneself with one’s patter, which is itself listed as a synonym.. I wonder how many campaign speeches qualify, as the spoken quickly constraint surprised me a bit. Noted in “Harris embraces patriotism and decency. Will voters?” Jennifer Rubin, WaPo:

This was a presidential-level address, not merely another campaign spiel. [Kamala Harris’] delivery, timing and demeanor conveyed calm authority. She is betting that patriotism, decency and kindness still win in Americans’ hearts. She stuck the landing this week; now, it’s up to the country to prove her right.

Last time was this, but what is that?

Over The Traffic Hump Labeled ‘DNC’, What’s Next?

• Florida’s primaries yielded the final contestants in the State’s Senate race, Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) and former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, along with four candidates with little chance. The weed in the garden if you’re a Democrat? Senator Scott, while crushing two primary opponents, garnered more ballots in his primary than did all the Democratic candidates aggregated. This suggests Mucarsel-Powell has to persuade all of the Democratic voters, of which she won only 68.6% of their ballots, and a large majority of the independent voters, to vote for her in order to win.Thing is, this is not impossible. The blowback of the Dobbs decision, communicated properly, may suffice to defeat a Senator with a lot of behavioral problems. While the numbers are disconcerting on their own, the Democrats still have an outside chance in the big State of Florida.
• After its Tuesday primary, Wyoming will see a Senatorial contest between Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) , who surprisingly only received 68.1% of the Republican primary votes, and challenger Scott Morrow (D-WY), who lost a few votes to write-in candidates, and thus won his primary with only 98+% of the Democratic ballots. That said, Barrasso nearly quadrupled Morrow’s ballot count, and put the two together and they barely top 5,000 votes. When they say it’s a small State, they mean it.And it’s full of tall mountains, and that’s what Morrow faces in this race.
• But Texas is not full of tall mountains, and the big one Rep Allred (D-TX) faced a few months ago appears to now be more of a hill, as highly respected pollster YouGov (2.9) has Rep Allred only two points behind Senator Cruz (R-TX), 47%-45%.If Rep Allred pulls this off, it’ll be a real shock to the entire Texas Republican Party, an organization that desperately needs electric shock therapy in the wake of the failed impeachment of Texas AG Ken Paxton. And it’s too bad my Mom’s not still around, as Allred was her maiden name. She’d be tickled.
• In Maine, University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6) is giving Senator Angus King (I-ME) a lead over Republican challenger Demi Kouzounas (R-ME) and Democratic challenger David Costello (D-ME), 43%-33%-9%, respectively. Senator King is an independent who apparently cannot stomach the Republicans in the Senate, and therefore caucuses with the Democrats, providing a critical vote to the Democrats. Unless numbers change in a challenger’s favor, I shan’t mention Maine again.
• A Dream, Extinguished: A few months ago, Axios reported on Republican dreams when it comes to New Mexico’s race between Senator Heinrich (D-NM) and challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM):
  

  With [Domenici’s] name ID and personal wealth, national Republicans see the race as a sleeper that may also force Democrats to spend resources defending what is considered a safe seat.

  Emerson College (2.9) is now measuring Senator Heinrich’s margin as being twelve points, 49%-37%, with a credibility interval of ±3.1 points, and I think the Republican dream is extinguished, absent a black swan event. Unless shocking news comes along, I shall omit New Mexico polling news in the future.

• I didn’t expect to ever again mention the newest member of the Senate, New Jersey’s George Helmy (D-NJ), who was appointed by Governor Murphy (D-NJ) to the seat of the resigning-in-disgrace former Senator Bob Menendez (I-NJ), but this goes into the Political Version of Trivial Pursuit:
  

  George Helmy will succeed Menendez until the November election results for the Senate seat are certified late in the month, the governor said. At that point, Murphy said Helmy will resign and he’ll name the winner of the election to the seat. [AP]

  The Trivial Pursuit question might be Who is the most ephemeral member of the US Senate? (Does Trivial Pursuit function on questions? I haven’t played in thirty years.)  Alternative: Which US Senator kept his seat warmest? Sure does sound like a Thank You! to me, as previously noted, and I’m fairly sure I’ve never seen this before.

• In Vermont, I, of course, am wrong, as University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6) has produced poll results that I claimed no one would bother pursuing. In their measurement, Senator Sanders (I-VT) leads Gerald Malloy (R-VT), by a large number, 66%-25%. Vermont will be getting no more love from me. Or, to borrow an obscure poetic form:
  

  Sanders tops
  a
  hapless victim

• Pitiless Rumors Department: Former Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE), who resigned to take the job of President of the University of Florida last year, and since resigned from that job, purportedly due to a family illness, is accused of, well, poor financial judgment by fellow Republican Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL):
  

  Former University of Florida President Ben Sasse on Friday disputed allegations of “inappropriate spending” following reports that spending by the president’s office more than tripled after he took over as leader of the state’s flagship university. [6 South Florida]

  Disputations and more salacious details at the link. It all sounds irrelevant, yet might it have an impact on Nebraska voters and the two races on which they’ll be voting? That’s a hard question to answer. But in the wake of the shocking news that Dan Osborn (I-NE) is only two points behind Senator Fischer (R-NE) in a very respectable pollster’s results, which is almost certainly within the margin of error, every voter who flips from Republican to, let us say, disgusted with all the Republican corruption! is a valuable voter for Osborn. Mr Osborn may find himself obligated to send a Thank You! note to Governor DeSantis.

  

  On The Issues: Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NE).

  And, in the other race of appointed Senator Ricketts (R-NE) and challenger Preston Love Jr. (D-NE) for former Senator Sasse’s seat? Well, what of Mr Love? I have yet to see a poll on this race. But looking at Senator Ricketts’ On The Issues summary to the right, it’s clear that he’s not going to be namby-pamby on the abortion issue, and that should spell political trouble for the Senator and former governor. (Yes, there’s the red dot marking his position, waaaaay to the right – he must be a contender for Most Conservative Senator!).

  Time for a poll!

Where Are We At? Let Me Consult The Map The Baby Upchucked On

Despite the negative predictions of right wing pundits and politicians, the pro-choice wave is surging in, just as it did during nearly all the special elections since Dobbs was announced. Women are outraged at the decision, and in those States where anti-abortion politicians control the issue, laws have been passed outlawing the medical procedure. I use the word control because some States, despite being conservative, have clauses in their Constitutions guaranteeing access to abortion.

These laws are the production of inept politicians. I use the word politician with precision; these laws may be competently written, making them technically good lawmakers. But politicians, real politicians in the American tradition, know that persuasion generally precedes effective laws, and a law passed through subterfuge, or invalidated through dubious reasoning, as with Dobbs, or simply rammed through by a minority that happens to be in power, is despised and can expand and harden opposition. Politicians who don’t understand the proper contribution of the model of a liberal democracy to American politics, whether it’s in the context of abortion or the management of the transgender issue, is a continuing failure regardless of the success or failure of the issue at hand, and, for the benefit of the State or the Country, should be dumped out on their ass.

I don’t care how much they scream But God Said ! or But Who Will Think Of The Children ?! That’s not how we do things here in the States, and if you don’t like it you, can lump it.

And we’re going to see this, and continue to see this, when it comes to Dobbs. The real question is the magnitude of the reaction. Here are the races that I think have become interesting:

• John Barrasso (R-WY) vs. Scott Morrow. There are no polls, so I’m moving it to the hot races list.
• Kevin Cramer (R-ND) vs Katrina Christiansen (D-ND), for which there are no credible polls, but at least a few people are beginning to suggest Cramer is vulnerable. I don’t think so, but I keep an open mind when it comes to me being wrong.
• Ted Cruz (R-TX) vs Colin Allred (D-TX) is definitely a hot race, as earlier news in this post makes clear.
• Deb Fischer (R-NE) vs Dan Osborn (I-NE) is another hot race, as a previous post indicated Osborn is pushing Fischer hard.
• Josh Hawley (R-MO) vs Lance Kunce (D-MO) may also be hotter than I predicted.
• If Senator Fischer (R-NE) is in trouble, her colleague Pete Ricketts (also R-NE) may also be in trouble. Come on, pollsters, prove me right.
• Rick Scott (R-FL) is barely holding off Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, so this is hot.
• Jim Justice (R-WV)’s position with regard to challenger Glenn Elliott is not known at the moment, so it’s hot until it’s not. It’s probably not.

I left Senators Wicker (R-MS) and Blackburn (R-TN) off as they seem relatively safe, though lacking relevant polling.

Until next time, stay safe.

[Published Aug 26]

Today’s nominee for Trump devotee is a specialist, it appears, in the fine Republican art of projection. The honored nominee’s name is Rob Schmitt, and he’s a host for cable news show and partisan Republican wannabe institution, Newsmax. This is provided by Media Matters For America:

… I think that when you put a poll out there that makes it look like Kamala is doing well, it creates the idea in a lot of people’s minds that aren’t intelligent enough to think for themselves that, oh, she must be better than I think she is. Or is she — obviously, people obviously like her, so I should like her too. I mean, this kind of polling, in my opinion, is dangerous and it’s almost like election meddling in a way to put a poll out there like that and have it this skewed.

… aren’t intelligent enough to think for themselves … Goodness. In the 2022 Senate elections, looking back, it was quite clear that there were a number of “pollsters” who thought they could influence the election by nudging voters to the right. For example, read this bit about Senator Hassan (D-NH) vs Don Bolduc (R-NH) in 2022:

In New Hampshire, some conservative pollsters gave challenger Don Bolduc (R) a small lead over Senator Hassan (D), while others called it a dead heat. Then pollster Lowell Center gave Hassan a ten point lead, pointedly out of step with everyone else. Hassan’s final margin of victory? 10 points.

I failed to find similar profiles for liberal pollsters, so, when I see frenzied claims like this from Schmitt, I see a ludicrous loyalty to Mr Trump, from a news station which should, but fails to, at least try to present itself as neutral, and not engage in the same insulting behaviors as does Mr. Trump.

This is way out of bounds for any reasonable person. Which makes him a Landgrebe, someone frantically flailing after social position that’s been lost because their idol has been shown to have feet of clay. All they know to do is what they did yesterday; I suppose the claim that this was inevitable is quite reasonable.

In The Dash

Last night I heard snippets of various DNC speeches as my Arts Editor caught up on the news, and a common theme is that this is going to be a close Presidential race. But I have my doubts. Between dementia and Dobbs, Federal debt and a pack of fourth-raters (Representatives Comer, Jordan, Gaetz, Greene, Boebert are just some of the names that come to mind), I suspect Harris will win all the States Biden won, with Georgia being the biggest question mark, and she’ll pick up North Carolina, which is afflicted with a nutty Republican candidate for Governor, current Lt Governor Robinson, and one more State. But which?

Possibly huge Ohio, which may be so repulsed by Senator Vance’s poor judgment, along with Trump’s narcissism, that they may go Democratic. Ah, but for a poll … oh, here comes one now! Fairleigh Dickinson University (2.6/3 on the FiveThirtyEight pollster rating scale) is giving Harris a lead nationally:

Voters nationally give Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris an edge over former President Donald Trump in November’s election by a seven-point margin (50 to 43), but race and gender remains central to the vote. When voters are made to think about the race or gender of the candidates, Harris’ lead grows substantially; when they’re not, support is essentially tied. Harris is also helped by strong support among the slightly less than half of men who reject traditionally masculine identities. Trump’s strongest support is among men who hold traditionally masculine identities, while women and other men strongly favor Harris.

Caveats galore, but I think it’s a sign of a future where Trump tries desperately to slime Harris into a coma, and she and Walz pick and pick at him while letting him hang himself with the voters. A seven point lead is bloody huge, you know, when Harris’ predecessor, President Biden, was chronically trailing.

Keep in mind, of course, that the popular vote does not categorically determine the Electoral College vote, which is a scandal in the minds of many Americans. And then there’s the perplexing Trumpian claim that he doesn’t need any more votes, he has plenty of votes. Maybe votes is a synonym for money? Maybe he’ll employ violence to gain a victory? Using fourth-raters prone to delusion isn’t a promising fighting force, so it seems unlikely. There is some concern about the electoral positions being occupied by MAGA and allies, but a reminder to them that abusing their positions could end poorly should help matters.

Or does Trump think a depleted Russian Army will come pouring over Niagara Falls? OK, I said that purely for the humor. Mostly.

Look for more pollsters to echo these results, even amplifying them much to Trump’s frustration.

Oh, And This …

From WaPo:

Seen at the Minnesota State Fair, 2024 edition:

My Arts Editor suggested the post title should be Chickens In Prison.

Steve Benen predicts the future:

Melissopalynology:

Melissopalynology is the study of pollen in honey. The term comes from the Greek words for “bee” and “honey” along with the words for “study of dust,” which now refers to “pollen.” Today, it is recognized worldwide as being the least expensive and quickest way to determine the floral contents and geographical origin of honey. However, the effectiveness of the technique depends on the skills of the pollen analysis (palynologist), the method of extracting the pollen from honey samples, and the skill of the analyst in interpreting the results. Today honey has become an important commercial business and provides sweetness used in thousands of products. [Bee Culture]

Noted in “How clues in honey can help fight our biggest biodiversity challenges,” Graham Lawton, NewScientist (10 August 2024, paywall):

The idea that honey contains biological fingerprints of its origins isn’t new. In 1895, a German chemist by the name of Pfister (his forename is lost in the mists of time) examined samples of honey under a microscope and noted that the pollen grains within were diagnostic of where the honey was made. Thus began the science of melissopalynology, the visual analysis of pollen grains in honey to determine its geographical origin.

Maybe they’re on migration.

Flippity flappity floop.

Today Robert F. Kennedy, Jr (RFK Jr) announced he is dropping out of the Presidential race.

RFK Jr. backs Trump: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. joined former President Donald Trump at a rally in Arizona on Friday, hours after he suspended his independent presidential campaign and endorsed Trump. Kennedy said he will withdraw from the ballot in 10 battleground states. [CNN/Politics]

I suspect, since he tried to arrange a discussion with Democratic nominee Harris concerning a possible Cabinet job, that may have been the deal he made with Trump.

RFK Jr no doubt realized that his dream of becoming President, never a strong possibility, was dashed when Biden refused the Democratic Presidential nomination and endorsed Vice President Harris for the nomination. His delay in dropping his run for President may have been in the thin hopes that Harris would be denied the nomination. While I think it was never in doubt that she’d win and accept the nomination, I must say this campaign season has been wacky enough that RFK Jr was actually justified in waiting it out.

Then again, he may simply have been waiting for Harris to become the official nominee so that he could make a bid for a job in her Cabinet.

All that said, what comes next? Will RFK Jr voters transfer to Trump? While it may seem like a sensible proposition, I don’t think so. The problem here is that many of his voters were what’s being called double-haters, voters who didn’t believe Mr Trump nor President Biden were up to the job, and RFK Jr was their backup plan. From the above link, it seems that some election watchers considered the double-haters a substantial portion of the electorate:

This bloc of “double haters” has ballooned in size thanks to the surge in Biden’s unpopularity since 2020, with polls suggesting they now represent 16% to 20% of the electorate. [Axios]

But now Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee, and suddenly the double haters are single-haters. Can RFK Jr persuade them to vote for Trump against their better judgment?

I don’t see it happening. RFK Jr has weak presence, and, from my very limited exposure to him, he seems spastic and confused. While his anti-vaccination position may appeal to a small number of voters, influencing even their vote to go with Trump seems unlikely. The magic of the Kennedy name, especially when his own relatives have advised against voting for him, is weakening badly.

Finally, and, yes, it’s not official, but if he has traded his endorsement for a Cabinet position, it really makes him look like a power-monger, an over-eager carrier of the Kennedy torch, and someone with very poor judgment.

I suspect he’s delivered a large number of voters to Harris, not Trump. Voters are not commodities, after all, but thinking beings.

Bring on the polls.

My Arts Editor exclaimed 10 out of 10! at its conclusion.

Backyard:

And, in North Carolina:

Leitmotif:

a phrase or other feature that is repeated often in a work of art, literature, or music and that tells you something important about it:

• Death and renewal are leitmotivs running through the whole novel. [Cambridge Dictionary]

Noted in “Sam Bankman-Fried, a personal verdict,” Michael Lewis, WaPo:

“In other words,” said the judge, “a man willing to flip a coin as to the continued existence of life and civilization on Earth, if the chances were imperceptibly greater that it would come out without that catastrophic outcome, that’s really a leitmotif in my judgment of this entire case. … It’s his nature.” Because it was his nature, the judge concluded, Sam [Bankman-Fried] would, if given the chance, do something like what he had just done all over again. “There is a risk that this man will be in a position to do something very bad in the future, and it’s not a trivial risk, not a trivial risk at all,” said the judge. “So, in part, my sentence will be for the purpose of disabling him.” He then sentenced Sam to 25 years in prison, with no possibility of parole.

Sheesh, so many polls. Is it time for an enema after last time?

What About the Democratic National Convention?

Will it affect the Senate races? In a few select cases, yes, as the Senators and challengers get a chance to communicate with attendees, physical and digital. And if the Democratic Party can communicate a positive message concerning the economy, the Gaza War, and abortion, they stand to pick up a few more votes, both for their Presidential nominee, Vice President Harris and for various Senate races.

On the other hand, miscues could hurt them. The Gaza War protesters, who think they can control the Party’s intentions towards the Gaza War through violent protest, must be handled firmly but fairly. While protest has a place in American politics, violent protest is not acceptable and may even indicate that the protesters are being manipulated by foreign, overseas forces.

In short, don’t look for any big swings.

How About Abortion Access?

This is the biggest issue of this election cycle, and every State that has an abortion access constitutional amendment on the ballot will attract voters who would not ordinarily vote, regardless of whether it’s pro- or anti- access.

Endangering lives and choice will do that, as previous votes have decisively shown.

So every State in which an amendment relating to abortion appears will see a surge in voters who will look to vote for more access to abortion, and against those who would deny them. This will be part of the Democratic strategy, but don’t be surprised if Republicans try to introduce opposite amendments as well.

And When The T. Rex Trumpets?

• A Shock To Big Red? Credible polls for Nebraska are in short supply, so when YouGov (2.9, putting it at #4 on the FiveThirtyEight board) speaks, it’s worth a listen. YouGov is giving incumbent Senator Deb Fischer (R-NB) the lead over challenger Dan Osborn (I-NB), but at 43%-41% and within the margin of error, this is a race, not a rout. For a comparison, Senator Fischer won her 2018 reelection race by nearly twenty points.There are a couple of stories here. Mr Osborn apparently played the Democrats into not putting forth a candidate, meaning there’ll be no vote splitting between Democrats and Osborn. Indeed, I saw somewhere that Nebraska Democrats have endorsed Osborn. He’s a vet, and a union member & leader, which means that union members across the State may vote for him based on affinity. Here’s an Osborn profile by Politico.
  

  On The Issues: Senator Deb Fischer (R-NB).

  This almost certainly has an abortion component, as Dobbs was celebrated by many in Nebraska, but fatal pregnancy complications potentially afflicts nearly all women and, secondarily, men and children. Mr Osborn’s statement on abortion carefully treads the line between those who are for abortion availability and those against, casting it as a privacy issue, as did Roe v. Wade. And don’t forget that the Senator even voted against a bill intended to protect contraception. Her On The Issues summary, to the right, indicates she is an extremist as well.

  Mr Osborn’s independent political status evades the independent who cannot stomach Democrats, which may or may not have been Mr Osborn’s intention. I won’t pretend to know how Democrats are perceived in Nebraska, but certainly attempts to inculcate loathing for Democrats has been a salient point in Republican propaganda for years, even decades. It seems like half of right wing pundit’s Erick Erickson’s posts feature that thought.

  But, perhaps most importantly, is the concept of a Red Wall. Election followers are well aware of the Blue Wall of the Democrats, and how its “crumbling” doomed Mz Clinton’s 2016 run. This is a reference to the victories of Mr. Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Although not mentioned nearly as much, there’s a similar Red Wall (or Red Sea, I come to find out) of such States as the Dakotas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and … Nebraska.

  Kansas has already shown signs of crumbling, to continue the analogy, as the governor’s seat has been held by Democrat Laura Kelly (D-KA) since 2018, or two elections. Is it now Nebraska’s turn to admit that the extremists of the right are incompetent and unpalatable in the area of governance? Their northern neighbor has certainly demonstrated this with the antics of the Kansas Republicans. See, for example, former Governor Brownback (R-KA) on this blog and many others.

  This race has certainly made it to the hot list, although the lack of polls makes that statement nearly meaningless.

  The only fly in the ointment is that Osborn sponsored the poll. But, as I state elsewhere, I don’t worry much about undue influence of high quality pollsters like YouGov.

  Finally, the reference to Big Red was not originally to the Republican Party, but to the University of Nebraska Cornhuskers football team, which was known, in the days of Coach Tom Osborne (later Rep Osborne (R-NB)!), as The Big Red Machine, or just Big Red. I’ll take the word play option around left end, though, and gather in the Party before throwing against the grain.

• 

  On The Issues: Matthew Corey (R-CT).

  Connecticut primaries have concluded, with Senator Murphy (D-CT) not facing any opposition, while Republican Matthew Corey (R-CT) advanced to the general election with 54.7% of the Republican ballots. While in another State that small number for Mr Corey might be disconcerting, in Connecticut Senator Murphy is expected to coast to an easy victory, even if Mr. Corey had collected 100% of the ballots. However, it’s worth noting that Mr Corey appears to qualify as a moderate and not an extremist, although data to this effect may be a trifle sketchy. Still, we may find that Mr Corey is the future of the Republican Party.

• In Arizona, WPA Intelligence (FiveThirtyEight rating of only 1.7) is only giving Rep Gallego (D-AZ) a two point lead, 48%-46%. The trick here? The sponsor is super PAC Club for Growth Action, a conservative group that’s been around for decades. Media azcentral does mention the sponsor and its antecedents, and, to quote:
  

  Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego led his Republican rival Kari Lake by 2 percentage points in a poll released Thursday by a conservative group that still sees the race as close.

  I bring this up as a measure of how much the media is just blindly reporting numbers, and how much they’re reporting context and suggesting some information is of a doubtful nature. In this article azcentral does a good job. I’ve seen other media report doubtful polls with no criticisms, implicit or explicit. This article has several not included in the above quote.

  At this point, I’m thinking Gallego wins by ten as the Democrat messaging nails Lake on abortion and her generally unacceptable behavior since the 2022 gubernatorial behavior. While credible media cannot ignore an endorsed Senate candidate from a major political party, they can, and should, completely ignore her if & when she loses the Senate race. Hooting about supposed election cheating, with neither evidence nor relevant credentials, does not make for news, despite what newsroom editors might think.

  I am assuming the undercount for Democratic candidates that appeared in special election polls throughout the last couple of years persists through this election. If it does not, Gallego wins by 6-7 points.

  Redfield & Wilton Strategies (at 1.8, not much better), which I’ve seen before, may have a conservative tilt, but it still gives Gallego the lead, 44%-39% or five point lead.

  Meanwhile, top-rated The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) is giving Gallego a nine point lead at 51%-42%. That link leads to a paywall; data comes from FiveThirtyEight, as it always does. Almost.

  Finally, an abortion rights constitutional amendment has qualified for the Arizona ballot. This amendment may not only ensure the defeat of Lake, but make it an overwhelming rejection. At least, I figure it ups the chances.

• The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) pollster combo suggests Senator Rosen (D-NV) is, indeed, increasing her lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) among likely voters, 49%-40%. Poll results for registered voters is 48%-37%, which I have to think is reflective of a certain disinterest in voting in Nevada. Regardless, Nevada is close to leaving the hot list as Republicans watch this dream fade away, given the results reported in the last Senate Campaign Update. Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8), for the record, gives Senator Rosen a much smaller lead at 41%-37%, which seems standard issue for this conservative pollster.
• On the other hand, Pennsylvania may be returning to the hot list. While the pollster Cygnal (2.1) has a fair rating, it also has a bit of tilt, inferred from out of line polling results and the language of its press releases (horn tootling bordering on bombast characteristic of the current crop of conservatives), so its results of 46%-42%, Senator Casey (D-PA) leading challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), aren’t much of a motivation to move Pennsylvania to the hot list. However, when Emerson College (2.9) gets a measurement of 48%-44%, it’s fair to say the race may be tightening up. Now, I have noticed Emerson College’s results tend to show tighter races than other pollsters, even top quality pollsters, so it may simply be a matter of how they’re interpreting the raw data. But it’s worth noting and remembering this poll result, even if Emerson College’s own press release says this:
  

  In the U.S. Senate election between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick, 48% support Casey and 44% support McCormick; 8% are undecided. Since last month, Casey’s support among likely voters has stayed at 48%, while McCormick’s support among likely voters decreased from 47% to 44%.

  If McCormick’s decline in numbers is not an illusion then he’s unlikely to take the traveling trophy of a Senate seat home in November or January. It remains true that other pollsters show Casey with a bigger lead, and whether this is a ripple in the electorate’s desires or a result of Emerson College techniques is unclear. The credibility interval for the Emerson College poll is given as ±3 points, which means the Casey lead could be one point, seven points, or something in between. The poll sponsor is RealClearPennsylvania, which appears to be a conservative organization; however, I tend to think that top quality pollsters, like Emerson College, will wisely refuse to skew their polls for clients, as to do otherwise is to risk reputation and, in the end, their very existence.

  Also, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) gives Senator Casey the lead at 44%-36%, significantly larger than Emerson College. The latter uses a somewhat larger sample size, but I don’t know how much of either’s sample is from the chancier online world.

• In New Mexico, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) gives Senator Heinrich (D-NM) a lead of 42%-36% over challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM).
• Democratic Senate candidate Rep Kim (D-NJ) of New Jersey will be denied the advantages of appointed incumbency as Governor Murphy (D-NJ) has appointed George Helmy (D-NJ) to replace the scandal-ridden, convicted of accepting bribes, and resigning Senator Bob Menendez (was D-NJ, now I-NJ). Helmy is a former Chief of Staff to Governor Murphy and aide to Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), and I suspect this is a Thank You from New Jersey Democrats to a loyal and productive member.Senator Menendez has also withdrawn from the race for his seat. I expect Rep Kim will win easily, incumbent or not.
• The political site Crooks and Liars has an article from Joan McCarter, a name I recognize from Daily Kos, suggesting the sleeper race of the year might be that between North Dakota Senator Cramer (R-ND) and challenger Katrina Christiansen (D-ND). It sounds like a dream to me, but then most victories start with dreaming. Maybe McCarter’s evaluation of North Dakota as soft on Cramer is correct. I’m still thinking it’s a ten to twenty point loss for Christiansen, but I’d be happy to be proven wrong.
• Ben Wikler on Daily Kos reports on the State Constitutional Amendments that came up for approval by the electorate in Wisconsin during the recent primaries, and were roundly rejected at the urging of Democrats. To my ear, it sounds like the Democrats have stirred up normally disinterested voters, and since this was not about abortion, it shows that abortion is not the only governmental issue that can stir up voters. The Republicans are taking their last shots at securing power following the redistricting ordered by the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and it seems the electorate was having none of it, as all the Amendments were unexpectedly rejected. Next stop? November. If there’s a lot of anger at Republicans for their proposals, we may see my neighbor to the east turn as blue as Minnesota, at least in the State Legislature.
• Abortion access will be on the ballot in Missouri, where we also have a contest between Senator Hawley (R-MO) and Lucas Kunce (D-MO). It will bring out concerned voters to try to legalize abortion, or not, but I doubt there’ll be enough Oh, yeah! votes to push Mr Kunce over the wall. Still, I could have it wrong.

Final Thoughts For This Edition

The Republicans, so confident at the beginning of this cycle, seem to be in deep trouble. Some may not realize it, but Senators such as Fischer (R-NB), Scott (R-FL), and even Cruz (R-TX) are discovering their races are not going as easily as the Republican base might have imagined six months ago.

I expect this will extend to the House races, and swing districts will be mostly won by Democrats in November.

Something we hear about in investment risk management is a natural tilt in human judgment against losses, even when it’s irrational. Now I’m wondering if that explains the behaviors of Mr. Trump, if Mr. Trump is more terrified, in his age-addled, narcissism-twisted brain, of losing more and more of his base, which would be a great insult to his ego – they no longer love me! – than he is of trying and failing to attract more voters, as any rational candidate might do.

After all, Trump has made little effort to conceal his distaste for former American POWs and, indeed, all American military service members, past, present, and future; his continuing alignment with far-right groups such as white supremacists; his insistence that the January 6th insurrectionists were, somehow, “patriots”; his characterization of PTSD in post-attack victims in the military as nothing more than headaches; and several other such appalling attitudes. These all share a link in that those who might agree enjoy bombastic, easy-to-understand explanations/solutions that are, Mencken-like^[1], wrong, but make their adherents feel good about attitudes that are now considered doubtful.

This is in opposition to other subjects as Project 2025 and abortion, which are less of an open question in the mind of believers, and more of a closed subject. He can distance himself, albeit ambiguously, from them with little damage to his core followers. Also,  Project 2025 is relatively recent and not well-known.

By repeating these statements, he’s choosing to solidify a base that reinforces his ego-need for approval. It’s a validation, a tangible validation that is far different from the anonymous validators he often tries to employ to protect his ego, such as Top Democrats call me and tell me I’m right! Rather than celebrate merely imagined validations, he can point at the cheering crowd and, as I’ve noticed in clips from his rallies, he adores those moments.

Basically, to gratify his ego he’s taking actions that label him an un-American goof in the minds of many voters, and pollute the water for his allies.

¹ From the horde of Mencken’s quotes, specifically,

For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong.

For the reader infuriated by the above, I suggest following the above link. Mencken was no angel, being, as I understand it, anti-Semitic, but he has a collection of observations that characterize Americans quite well, without soothing their egos.