It’s raining polls, or at least it was, but hardhats are optional.
Compaction
The pollsters, possibly motivated by the withdrawal of President Biden and his endorsement of Vice President Harris to replace him on the ballot for next term – it’s not final yet, or, if you’re a Republican, a fait accompli, in its pejorative, yet slightly admiring sense – are heavily polling the battleground states, presumably to see how Harris’ move upwards is affecting voter inclinations for both the Presidential election and the downballot results.
In order to save both time and my hands, which is not a joke after being a touch typist for 45 years, I’ll be skipping the conversational part of reporting numbers, only turning to chatty convo for any analysis I add. The actual number format will be obvious.
Timing
But not Olympic timing. Most of these polls are since President Biden dropped out in favor of Vice President Harris and so constitute some of the earliest measures of Harris’ impact on Senate races.
What Am I To Make Of Fox News Polls?
Fox News is sponsoring polls by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research, which has a very respectable 2.8/3 rating from FiveThirtyEight.
For those readers who stay in the comfortable bubble of Fox News, I will connect you with everyone else by saying that Fox News, despite its leading audience size, does not have any respect of those with knowledge of the news. They are known to tilt the news for Mr. Trump’s benefit, by such means as not correcting his misstatements, altered pictures, and with opinion shows that attack political adversaries of Mr Trump’s with false information. Doubt it? Agreeing to a $787.5 million settlement in the case of Dominion Voting Systems v. Fox News Network is absolute proof of their guilt and complicity. If you want the true measure of Fox News, and not some flustered But our audience, Our revenues!, ask for their count of Pulitzer Prizes. That’s the true measure of excellence in the journalism sector.
That said, polling results issued by Fox News Polls have won praise from third parties and liberals in the past, while conservatives probably grumble. That a known partisan organization issues accurate polling results is a point for them – and makes them an important component of any attempt to analyze aggregate polling results. And they use somewhat larger sample sizes (people interviewed) than do most other pollsters, which may explain their historical accuracy. Remember all this when noting results from Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research, below.
Enough Chitchat, Eh?
- In Pennsylvania Senator Casey (D-PA) continues to lead challenger David McCormick (R-PA?) in all polls: North Star Opinion Research (1.2, right-leaning) 49%-41%, Emerson College (2.9) 48%-44%, The Bullfinch Group (unknown) 53%-42%, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) 46%-39%, Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8) 55%-42%. McCormick’s chances, in view of that last poll sponsored by Fox News, are looking dim, but there’s still 100 days, three months, left.
- In Arizona prospective Senate nominees Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) leads Kari Lake (R-AZ) in the Emerson College (2.9) poll 46%-42%. Primaries are July 30, next Tuesday, and I’ll be greatly interested in whether or not Arizona Republicans select Lake or someone else. If it’s Lake or someone off to her right, independents may be more likely to vote for Gallego in November, and the impression I’ve picked up from reports on Lake, former Republican Chair Kelli Ward, and other Arizona Republicans is that they have gone off the cliff. But Lake was reportedly booed at a convention a ways back, a reaction congruent with many positions. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will be instructive.
- In Wisconsin Senator Baldwin (D-WI) leads prospective GOP nominee Eric Hovde (R-WI?) in all polls: Emerson College (2.9) 49%-43%, Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8) 54%-43%, While Wisconsin primaries are August 13, Baldwin does not face a primary challenger, yet. In the Republican primary, wealthy businessman Hovde is facing Rejani Raveendran, a 40 year old immigrant from India who is a single mother of three, a former nurse, and currently a student pursuing a degree in political science – kudos for doing the right thing! – and Charles Barman, who appears to be a chronic candidate. Hovde, in the absence of primary polling, seems to have the most reasonable expectation of winning the primary. But the Fox News Poll result of Baldwin holding a lead in the 50% range makes the Wisconsin race seem close to finished. As the Emerson College result is not far off from the Fox News result, it may be time to take Wisconsin off the list of hot races.
- In Michigan prospective Senate nominees Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leads former Rep Mike Roger (R-MI) in all polls: Emerson College (2.9) 45%-41%, Glengariff Group (1.5) 46%-41%, Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8) 51%-46%, Primaries are Aug 6. The Fox News Poll showing Slotkin advancing into the 50% range against GOP favorite Rogers does not yet suggest the race is over to me, as I’d like to see confirming polls, not to mention the primary, but it does suggest a mountain to climb for Rogers that is much steeper than Slotkin’s. This could all become irrelevant, though, on the day after the primary if either one, both facing opposition in said primaries, loses.
- Missouri Democrats worry about putting candidates through a primary in a limited resource environment, but I think it’s the right thing to do so long as it’s fairly run and transparent. The benefits of sharpening messages and introducing one’s self to voters are simply too important. We’re not talking about a prize at the finish line, but the selection of someone who will make serious governance decisions as well as replace a self-proclaimed Christian Nationalist in the person of prospective GOP nominee Senator Hawley (R-MO). Missouri primaries are August 10.
- In Nevada Senator Rosen (D-NV) leads challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) in the Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll (1.8), 45%-40%.
- Florida has been absent polling numbers for a while, but the announcement of President Biden’s decision to remove himself from the Presidential race and his endorsement of Vice President Harris has excited younger Florida voters, according to Democratic Senate candidate and former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). From the same source, Scott is trying to keep the focus on the Gaza conflict, which is a difficult issue. A bit of polling would be interesting.
Summary
Even though it’s early days, some races that were thought to be tight are beginning to look like they are cool or cold. I’d put in that category Pennsylvania (Casey vs McCormick) and Wisconsin (Baldwin vs Hovde). Michigan (Slotkin vs Rogers), an open seat, remains hot, as does Texas (Cruz vs Allred), Montana (Tester vs Sheehy), and Nevada (Rosen vs Brown). Florida may also be hot. West Virginia remains on the cold list as a GOP flip until polling suggests otherwise, and I don’t expect to see that.
Where would I like to see more polls? Ideally, everywhere, but that takes unavailable resources. Since I have the impression that most Democratic incumbents are solid, I’d prioritize all open seats, then all Republican seats, then all Democratic seats. Just because Dobbs is such a huge disruption that even States in which Republicans dominate will be vulnerable to angry women voters.
Tomorrow has Arizona primaries.
