This keeps happening, just like last time. Too much morbid fascination, I suppose.
President Biden deciding to leave the Presidential race means what?
Not a great deal for the Senate races. The Dobbs decision is really independent of President Biden, and that’s what will motivate women to vote and to kick some male ass. A President Harris will have the same policies on abortion as does Biden.
That said, Biden leaving the race may motivate a few more Never Trumpers to get out and vote, excited by a Harris vs Trump race.
It’s worth remembering virtually none of these polls were performed after July 21st, which is when Biden announced he was no longer running.
And If Kamala Harris Pins Down The Nomination?
Her impact on the Senate races will depend on the quality of her rhetoric and vociferousness.
What About Public Policy Polling?
With a rating of 1.4 on FiveThirtyEight’s scale of three stars, they seem to be a favorite of Democrat-aligned organizations, such as Clean & Prosperous America and Progress Action Fund. It’s probably a mistake to choose them, though, as that 1.4 is not impressing me.
So how does it look?
- Public Policy Polling (see above) gives Pennsylvania’s Senator Casey (D-PA) an 11 point lead, 50%-39%, over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). Seems reasonable, if a bit on the liberal side, except that the sponsor is Clean & Prosperous America, a Democrat-aligned organization, so there may be a tilt to this result. Add in the mediocre rating and this may not be worth remembering. And when they polled for Progress Action Fund, the lead shrinks to 3 points, 47%-44%. Meanwhile, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) is harder to judge, as they give Senator Casey a 44%-37% lead. Finally, mysterious but probably right-wing SoCal (unknown rating), working for On Point Politics, gives Casey a large 10 point lead, 50%-40%. The latter poll is sponsored by On Point Politics, a right-wing organization that is still advertising that Trump will defeat Biden in a landslide. Apparently, they were caught off-balance by the idea
that things can change over a few months of campaigning, err,Trump will self-destruct per usual, I’ll get this right, Biden would outmaneuver the right with a well-timed withdrawal, as reluctant as he was to do so. I’m not bothering with reading their site, as it feels like a political echo site, but I do have to wonder what they thought Trump could do if the Senate stays in the Democratic column, and possibly even gains a seat or two. I don’t think anyone doubts that the House, packed with Republicans like Gaetz and Greene and Boebert, will return to Democratic control come January. - Public Policy Polling (1.4) gives Michigan’s Rep Slotkin (D-MI) an 8 point lead, 46%-38%, over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI). Once again, the poll sponsor is Clean & Prosperous America, see the Pennsylvania entry, above, for further remarks. Then PPP double-dips for Progress Action Fund and gives Slotkin a ten point lead, 45%-35%, which seems unlikely. EPIC-MRA (2.0) gives Slotkin (D-MI) a three point lead, 43%-40%, over Rogers (R-MI). Primaries are still to come.
- Tit For Tat: Skip the tawdry jokes, please. In Nebraska Senator Fischer (R-NB) has a huge lead over challenger Dave Osborn (I-NB), 50%-24%. Two problems: The pollster is Torchlight Strategies (see here for its last mention), unranked by FiveThirtyEight, and the sponsor is … Deb Fischer. I’m not sure why this poll is even listed by FiveThirtyEight.
If we take this poll at face value, it sounds like doom, except for this bit:
More than 75% of the Nebraskans surveyed had no opinion of Osborn, didn’t know who he was or declined to share an opinion of him. Fischer was known to all but 14% of those polled. [Nebraska Examiner]
That leads to an overextended Osborn claim:
Osborn’s campaign has said the race is closer than indicated by the Fischer poll. The campaign has pointed to a Public Policy Polling survey from May that indicated Fischer led 37%-33%, with a 3.7% margin of error.
Dude, this is July, not May. Osborn’s later return shot is a lot like Fischer’s, a poll he sponsored from Red Wave Strategy Group/Impact Research that shows Osborn and Fischer tied at 42%. But who is Red Wave? FiveThirtyEight shrugs. Their web site claims they’re conservatives, but what sort? Impact Research has a 1.5 rating, which is nothing about which to brag, but I believe they claim to Democrat-aligned.
To summarize, there’s nothing to summarize. Neither poll is worth the bits they’ve consumed.
- Unknown pollster ActiVote is giving Texas Senator Cruz (R-TX) an 8 point lead, 54%-46%, over challenger Rep Allred (D-TX). This is out of line with YouGov’s (2.9) recent assessment of a 3 point lead, ActiVote’s sample size was only 400, which seems small for a big state like Texas, and it has a margin of error of 4.9%, which is a bit large. I feel a wave of skepticism coming on, but maybe that’s just me listening to Andrew Sullivan interview Erick Erickson on religious subjects.
- Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) suggests Nevada’s Senator Rosen (D-NV) leads challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) by 4 points, 41%-37%. Seems a bit low. The sponsor is The Telegraph, of which I’m not really aware except that it seems to be an overseas publication.
- In Wisconsin Public Policy Polling gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 51%-43% lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?) for Progress Action Fund. This is congruent with the previous poll from Republican-leaning North Star Opinion Research and American Greatness. Mr Hovde does not appear to be making progress against the incumbent.
- Resignation is more honorable than a boot up the butt. Senator Menendez (D-NJ, errr, I-NJ) has announced his intention to resign his seat on August 20th; the delay is presumably to give New Jersey Governor Murphy (D-NJ) time to select a replacement for immediate appointment and retain the Democratic Senate majority. Senator Menendez, as noted in this update, was convicted on all counts resulting from a Federal bribery scandal. This conviction (convictions?) not only may be ridding us of a weak member of the Senate, but also tears the legs off the Republican talking point that the DoJ has been weaponized by the Biden Administration. The resignation, in response to Senator Schumer’s (D-NY) request that he resign, reinforces the idea that the Democrats, despite other flaws, are still more honorable than the party that sports such names as Gaetz and Greene.Menendez did not address the issue of running for reelection as an independent. He has filed the papers to do so.
And there’s no tall walls keeping the governor from appointing Rep and candidate for the Senate seat Kim to the seat. Republicans hate that idea, which tells me that, chairs reversed, they’d do it in a second. Still, it is true that California governor Newsom (D-CA) did appoint a caretaker, now-Senator Laphonza Butler (D-CA), to the seat of the late Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) when she died last year. Rep Adam Schiff (D-CA) and MLB great Steve Garvey (R-CA) are now running for that seat.
- In Arizona Public Opinion Polling is again double-dipping, telling Progress Action Fund that Rep Gallego (D-AZ) leads election-denier and former newscaster Kari Lake (R-AZ) by three points, 50%-47%, while telling the PAC Clean and Prosperous America that Gallego’s lead is seven points, 49%-42%. There were fewer voters in the former poll, so its margin of error will be larger, although whether or not that’s significant is beyond me. My guess is that the sponsors have different parameters for adjustments. Primaries happen July 30, and while Gallego has no challengers, Lake faces adversaries for this open seat, occupied by the retiring Senator Sinema (I-AZ, formerly D-AZ).
- Democrats may dream of defeating Senator Hawley (R-MO) of Missouri, but when the strongest news is that probable opponent Lance Kunce (D-MO) has outraised him, $2.8 million to $1.8 million, it’s not a convincing sign, because money flows easily over State borders.
As always, much of the above data derives from FiveThirtyEight.
