What happens during vacation stays on vacation? One could wish.
How Will The Republican-animated Attempted Assassination Of Trump Affect the Senatorial Campaigns?
In short, it seems unlikely there’ll be a measurable effect, particularly as the Republicans don’t have a strong message to send when the alleged assassin was a twenty year old registered as a Republican with a weapon from a weaponry class legalized and promoted by the Republicans.
That said, there may be some minor shifts here and there. The MAGA base may be even more solid, but it was rather solid prior to this tragic incident. It’s worth keeping in mind most of these polls were completed before the assassination attempt.
Any Other Observations?
At least some of this edition’s polling results indicate that some pollsters, in previous reports, are trying hard to influence the voters, such as in Texas. It’s really quite patronizing to think voters will consider polling to be a source of authoritative voting directives, isn’t it?
And Onwards At A Gallop To The Watering Hole!
- Texas gets a respectable poll, and now it’s officially a race. YouGov and its near-the-top 2.9/3.0 rating gives Senator Cruz (R-TX) a three point lead, 47%-44%, over challenger Rep Allred (D-TX). In previous recent polling, Remington Research Group had given Cruz a ten point lead, while the Manhattan Institute had given Cruz a three point lead. Remington seems to be untrustable.
Allred still has a mountain to climb, but this is also significant:
23% of Texas likely voters don’t know enough about Allred to have an opinion about him, compared to only 3% who don’t know enough about Cruz to have an opinion about him.
Allred’s team must keep working on getting their message out. And Cruz must keep clawing his way over 50%. Given Cruz’s reputation, I wonder how many Republican Senators are secretly hoping he fails to reach that plateau.
Finally, Allred may gain some voters over the poor Texas government management of the emergency brought on by Hurricane Beryl. True, Cruz has responsibility only for requesting Federal assistance, but Texas is run by the Republicans, so Cruz may accrue some blame, unearned as it may be, from voters, who may then refuse to vote, or even choose to vote for Allred.
- North Star Opinion Research (1.2), once again working for right wing American Greatness, yields a surprising result in Wisconsin: Senator Baldwin (D-WI) continues to lead challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI), and by a substantial eight points, 49%-41%. Are they capitulating on Wisconsin? And KAConsulting (1.5) (see the Michigan entry, below, for caveats regarding this pollster) has given Wisconsin Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a four point lead over Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 46%-42%.
- In Pennsylvania, The New York Times/Siena College poll (top-rated at 3.0, even if it did incur wrath from various never Trumpers a month or two ago) gives Senator Casey (D-PA) an 8 point lead among likely voters, 50%-42%, over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), and an 11 point lead among registered voters. Compare this to a recent Remington poll giving Casey a 1 point lead. And now KAConsulting (1.5) (see the Michigan entry, below, for caveats regarding this pollster) has given Senator Casey (D-PA) a 47%-37% lead, which is far more believable than a single point lead. Finally, The Keystone has published a report suggesting McCormick may have profited from investing in a Chinese company that supplied fentanyl to the black market. Given the sensitivity of some voters on this issue, this may be devastating for McCormick.For a State Republicans thought was up for grabs, it all appears to be slipping away.
- It appears Virginia’s Tim Kaine (D-VA) has a commanding lead over challenger Hung Cao (R-VA) of seventeen points, 53%-36%, according to The New York Times/Siena College (3.0). Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs (2.1) gives Kaine a smaller lead of 11 points, 49%-38%., and Emerson College (2.9) gives Caine a 10 point edge at 49%-39%. I shan’t mention Virginia again unless something surprising emerges.
- New Jersey’s Senator Menendez (I-NJ, formerly D-NJ) was convicted on bribery charges on July 16th. He’s been convicted before a few years ago in a separate incident, but won on appeal, so he’s not necessarily trotting off to jail. However, this conviction probably terminates his political career, if not just yet, despite Majority Leader Schumer’s (D-NY) call for him to resign. Will he bow out of the Senate race and increase Democrats’ chances of holding this seat?
- KAConsulting (1.5), a Kellyanne Conway enterprise and thus allied with Mr Trump, and working for Vapor Technology Association, which appears to be an industry group promoting vaping, measures Rep Slotkin (D-MI) as having a 6 point lead, 43%-37%, over former Rep Rogers (R-MI) in the race for the open Michigan Senate seat. This is entirely reasonable. However, the link provided by FiveThirtyEight to the press release (see the numbers) has nothing to do with such a poll, and I cannot find a poll associated with KAConsulting for this race. I am taking this with a grain of salt. A largish grain.
- J.L. Partners (1.6), in a poll sponsored by prospective Republican nominee Kari Lake (R-AZ), gives Lake a 1 point lead over prospective Democratic nominee Rep Gallego (D-AZ) in Arizona, 44%-43%. A mediocre, or worse, pollster, and the candidate sponsored the poll. Think about it. Meanwhile, a couple of months ago top of the line pollster YouGov (2.9) gave Gallego a 13 point lead. Sure, maybe he’s collapsed that fast. But with primaries still to come and Lake facing other Republican Senator wannabes, this poll may simply be to persuade the base that Lake’s the best Republican candidate. Does this sort of thing work, though?
- But does it matter? NewDakota.com reports that underdog candidate for the North Dakota Senate seat currently held by Senator Cramer (R-ND), Katrina Christiansen (D-ND), has outraised her opponent in the last filing period:
Katrina Christiansen has gained significant traction in North Dakota’s Senate race, surpassing incumbent Republican Senator Kevin Cramer in second-quarter fundraising by $30,000. Christiansen reported raising over $690,000, compared to Cramer’s $660,000.
Christiansen’s campaign has seen widespread support from individuals across North Dakota, with donations pouring in from 52 of the state’s 53 counties. This contrasts sharply with Cramer’s funding sources, which heavily rely on PACs and Republican committees. In the last filing period, Cramer raised less than $100,000 from individual donors, while a substantial $354,771 came from PACs and political committees.
I suspect this is a result of the Dobbs decision, but it’s also true that, unlike votes, money can pour across State borders, so this measure can be highly misleading insofar as using it for evaluating a race. There’s been only one poll, by a suspect pollster, for a right-wing organization, so while I expect Senator Cramer (R-ND) to be easily reelected, I suppose there’s always a chance that Christiansen could tighten up this race, even to single digits. But I doubt it.
Final Thoughts, If Any?
So far it appears Democratic Senate candidates who are defending seats are doing well. West Virginia and Arizona have open seats, and so far West Virginia looks to move to the Republican side, while Arizona seems more likely to remain Democratic.
Battleground states, as they like to call them, with Senate seats up for grabs seem to be leaning Democratic. Some report I ran across somewhere states that the Republicans are, once again, supremely confident. Judging that requires context, and so far the context of weak candidates, plus the confidence, suggests the Republican Party is still a pack of fourth-raters who do not understand common American attitudes on key issues, such as abortion, taxation, gun laws, and several other issues.
This is not surprising. The Republicans have become a Party where advancement is not through merit, but through stands on issues, and it’s a Party whose members have learned that arrogant absolutism is the only acceptable attitude in connection with those issues. Compromise, competency, understanding the other side, humility? Those are no longer considered advantages, but negatives, even treachery. Having little need to possess those qualities while following ambition, when they do need to possess that understanding, well, that’s a skill they don’t have. In fact, they seem to substitute arrogance.
It’s still a long ways ’til November, and the Biden mess has yet to blow over. If you’re a Democrat, don’t worry about West Virginia, because, unless something very interesting happens, it’ll move to the Republicans. Worry about Montana and Arizona and Michigan and maybe Wisconsin.
