Previously, on Dragnet …
Coattails
For those young readers who’ve not paid attention to politics – understandable, it’s a dreadful business, but part of your civic duty – past general election coverage has often featured the question of metaphorical coattails: how much the Presidential candidates’ popularity will enhance the election chances of other members of the Party, sometimes known as downballot influence. These are often overestimated, in my opinion, but this election cycle is certainly different from the general run of election cycles, as the switch from Biden to Harris by the Democrats gives an unprecedented opportunity for before-and-after polling. Unfortunately, President Biden failed to give the pollsters a full month’s warning.
That said, Mz Harris’ selection of Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) as her running mate (vice president for the first-time voter – we do like our political jargon here in the States) leads to similar questions. As a white, plump guy who grew up in a rural area and worked on a farm, graduated from Chadron State College (compare with Mz Harris’ degree from Howard, Mr Trump’s from Wharton, and Mr Vance’s from Yale), twenty four year career in the Army National Guard, including deployments, working in a factory and as a high school teacher and football coach, moving on to a successful political career as the Representative for for Minnesota’s 1st congressional district elected in 2006, and then elected Governor of Minnesota in 2018, Walz will have an outsized appeal to the white guy segment of the electorate.
He projects being plain-spoken, full of self-deprecating humor, and may have the most effective personal presence of the four. His résumê is just bang-on to appeal to the white guy segment of the electorate, a bare majority of which still lean towards Trump / Vance, some believing that Mr Trump is an iconic businessman and boss, others worried about Democratic policies, realized or potential, true or propaganda.
And how does this play into the Senate races that are still undecided? I think coattails can be effective. If Governor Walz avoids the various potholes certain to be strewn in his path by the Republicans, he may move some voters out of the Republican column, and some of those may even vote Democratic. His invention of the Republicans are weird meme has certainly been effective, and who wants to vote for the weird ticket?
Time will tell.
Republicans, of course, claim Walz is a terrible pick, a leftist who lies about his military record. Here, for instance, is WaPo’s Marc Thiessen rattling on about Harris’ “unforced error.” For very long-term readers, this would be the same Marc Thiessen who tried to make the case that Mr Trump was the most honest politician ever; I commented on that exercise in poor judgment in one of my more popular posts.
Yeah, he’s a real hack, like most conservative pundits these days.
Mz Harris, speaking of coattails, fared better than President Biden in the latest Marist College poll (2.9 in the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings), taking a three point lead over Mr Trump, which is within the margin of error.
Primaries
There were several primaries since the last Senate campaign update, and I summarize them below. In case you were worried, no, there are still a few primaries in the future for this cycle.
Facts On The Ground, Please Do Not Trample
- Speaking of primaries, yes, it will be Rep Gallego (D-AZ) vs election-denier and former newscaster Kari Lake (R-AZ) in Arizona for its open seat in the US Senate. Democrat Gallego was unchallenged in the primary, while Republican Lake defeated Mark Lamb 53.8%-40.3%. Lamb can probably be considered to be to the right of Lake, since, as Sheriff of Pinal County, Arizona during the pandemic years, he stated he would not enforce “stay at home” laws, but that doesn’t make Lake a moderate. The actual and also-ran Republican moderate, Elizabeth Reyes, won 5.9% of Republican primary votes, suggesting Arizona Republicans have, indeed, jumped off the cliff. Gallego won just short of 400,000 votes in the primary, but as an unopposed candidate interest may have flagged, while Lake and Lamb won an aggregate of just less than 500,000 votes. Can Lake attract Lamb voters, or are they too embittered to vote for Lake? Can she attract enough independent voters, given her well-displayed extremist tendencies? I tend to think not.
In the only poll I’ve seen since the primary, HighGround (1.7) gives Gallego a big lead of 50%-39% over Lake, with independents stampeding to Gallego by 18 points. However, notably the sample size is only 500 likely voters. The same pollster gives Mz Harris a smaller lead over Mr Trump of less than three points, within the margin of error. The Senate result brings into question whether Arizona is still contested, or if it’s decided. It also brings into focus the question of the Arizona Republicans’ leaderships’ durability. Ever since the 2020 election it’s strongly resembled a tire fire built by squabbling fourth-raters.
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On The Issues: Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN).
Tennessee’s Senator Blackburn (R-TN) won her primary against Tres Wittum (R-TN) with nearly 90% of the primary vote, amounting to 367,711 ballots. Her opponent will be Tennessee State Representative Gloria Johnson (D-TN), who beat three other candidates with 70+% of the Democratic primary vote, amounting to 143,904 ballots. These numbers are not favorable for the Democrats, and so it seems likely that Tennessee voters will reward Senator Blackburn for her far-right views once again.
- Senator Cantwell (D-WA) of Washington came out on top in the jungle primary used in the Washington Senate race, consisting of promoting the top two finishers to the general election. The Senator won 57.9% of the ballots. In second place, and her opponent in November, is Raul Garcia (R-WA), with 21.3% of the vote. Although Mr. Garcia will certainly pick up some of those votes garnered by candidates who didn’t qualify for the general, as well as those voters who didn’t participate in the primary, it seems unlikely he’ll surpass Senator Cantwell, barring a black swan event. I’ll desist from progress reports on this race unless a surprise occurs.
- Missouri’s Senator Hawley (R-MO) won his primary with 601,906 ballots, and he was unopposed. His opponent in November will be Lance Kunce (D-MO), who won his primary with 255,309 ballots and 67.7% of the votes. The total vote count for the Democratic primary? 377,321 ballots, split between Kunce and three other hopefuls.
Will Missouri independents, outraged and appalled by the Dobbs decision, support Kunce in such numbers as to overrun Senator Hawley? It seems unlikely, although former Senator McCaskill (D-MO) did something similar in 2012, defeating the late Todd Akin (R-MO) after he expressed an appalling extremist opinion on abortion that Missouri voters simply could not accept. While Senator Hawley has stated extremist positions that outrage many people, I do not expect him to put his foot in his mouth to the extent that he follows Akin into a shocking defeat. I will desist from further reports on this race unless something interesting comes up.
- As expected, in Michigan the race for the open Senate seat will be between Rep Slotkin (D-MI) and former Rep and hard-liner Mike Rogers (R-MI). Slotkin had 80+% of the Democratic vote, or 528,099 ballots, while Rogers had 62.8% of the Republican votes, or 460,959 ballots. However, overall there were more Republican than Democratic ballots. Whether or not Rogers can attract enough votes to beat Slotkin remains an open question, and Slotkin has consistenly lead in polls, but often within the margin of error.
The first poll of which I’m aware since the primary is from top-rated The New York Times/Siena College (3.0), giving Rep Slotkin a slender lead of 46%-43%.
- Ask and ye shall find … In Florida, the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, currently carrying a hefty 2.8/3 rating from FiveThirtyEight, gives Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) a 47%-43% lead over former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), no doubt in response to my pleas for more polls of Florida. Is Florida drifting away from the Democratic dream? Or are chronic young voter undercounts skewing the poll? That’s hard to say, but, speaking of coattails, the Miami Herald notes Mz Harris’ popularity is greatly overshadowing that of President Biden:
Less than three weeks after emerging as the de facto Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris has opened up a double-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in Miami-Dade County, according to a new poll from a top Miami Democratic consultant.
The survey, released Thursday by Democratic strategist Christian Ulvert, a top campaign adviser to several Miami-Dade candidates including Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, shows Harris notching the support of nearly 54% of Miami-Dade likely voters. Trump, a South Florida resident with an outsized business presence in the county, has just under 40% support. The poll’s margin of error is 4.6 percentage points.
The poll of 1,071 of likely general election voters in Miami-Dade County, conducted over the first five days of August by Plantation-based MDW Communications, is likely to be touted as a sign of improving fortunes for Democrats, who have faced an increasingly difficult political terrain in Florida in recent years. Trump carried the state in both 2016 and 2020, while the 2022 midterm elections saw Republicans win supermajorities in both chambers of the state Legislature and clinch every statewide elected office. …
While he’s already widely expected to win Florida overall in November, speculation has swirled among both Republicans and Democrats about whether Trump might be able to capture Miami-Dade. A survey commissioned by Ulvert last November found Trump leading President Joe Biden by 11 percentage points in the county.
Can Mucarsel-Powell translate that movement into votes for herself in the Senate race? If so, that may push her over the top.
- In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna Polling & Research (2.3) gives Senator Casey (D-PA) a 47%-42% lead over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). This race may still be hot. It is not clear if this pollster, unfamiliar to me but with a respectable FiveThirtyEight rating, has a bias, as they’re giving Harris a four point lead over Trump in the same poll.
But for comparison, consider the poll numbers supplied by The New York Times/Siena College (top-rated 3.0): 51%-37%. That, folks, is almost unreal in comparison to other poll numbers, but despite the anger some progressives had with this pollster combination, it has to be taken seriously. Perhaps McCormick is finished.
- We haven’t heard about Ohio of late, so even the results of frankensteinian Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (1.7) are welcome. They show Senator Brown (D-OH) continues to lead challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH?), 46%-42%.
- Pollage is now available for New York’s Senate race, and it’s not pretty for Republicans, as Siena College (2.7; this is not The New York Times/Siena College, which tops the FiveThirtyEight ratings at 3.0) gives Senator Gillibrand (D-NY) a 56%-33% lead over challenger Mike Sapraicone (R-NY), and unrated pollster ActiVote gives the Senator a bigger lead at 63%-37%. In the latter case, the margin of error is 4.9% due to the small number of voters (n=400) surveyed, while Siena College surveyed 1199 voters; I suspect ActiVote is cheaping out on actual data collection, which is understandable in an era in which good data collection is becoming increasingly difficult. I’ll desist from further New York reports unless something unusual occurs.
- The Massachusetts primaries are still a month off, and the Berkshire Eagle has a profile of two of the three Republicans who’ve entered the primary in order to challenge Senator Warren (D-MA); the third is a Trump groupie who does not have a chance in Massachusetts, according to profile author, local political columnist Bill Everhart. The other two, men named Deaton and Cain, according to Everhart seem to be moderate Republicans, perhaps even Republicans of the future, after the current dumpster fire that encompasses everyone from Vance to McConnell burns out. However, one aspect he mentions that troubles me is that both Deaton and Cain are connected to the cryptocurrency industry. Long-term readers know that, so far, my view of cryptocurrency is that it is an essential tool in the grifters’ toolbox, and that, as a whole, there is little wholesomely unique about it. Further, the cryptocurrency industry has been seeking to influence various members of Congress, generally in order to avoid regulation. So is Deaton and/or Cain a grifter? Or just another arrogant libertarian who thinks he’s found the cure for inflation, with little regard as to whether the cure has unintended consequences, never mind if it solves the putative problem.
Warren is unchallenged in her primary.
- The Marquette University Law School (3.0 and #3 in the FiveThirtyEight rankings) has some bad news for Eric Hovde (R-WI?), challenger to Senator Baldwin (D-WI), issuing a 51%-45% ranking in favor of the Senator. It’s not just the 6 point gap, but that Senator Baldwin is in the magic land of 50+%. Removing the two non-major party candidates pushes Baldwin up to 52%.
And the waves keep coming, as The New York Times/Siena College (top rated at 3.0) is giving the Senator a 51%-44% lead. That’s the third and fourth top pollsters to give the Senator a 50+% rating recently, meaning the Wisconsin race might not be worthy of further comment unless Senator Baldwin’s numbers dip. I’ll desist.
- In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy (R-MT) has a small lead, 48%-46%, over Senator Tester (D-MT), according to Emerson College (2.9). If that holds up then it’s likely that the Republicans will take control of the Senate. In what seems a bit of unfair news, WaPo reports Sheehy’s business, a firefighting company, is losing money. While that’s applicable to any claims Sheehy makes to leadership, from the report it just seems that a quieter-than-expected fire season is to blame.
- Republicans looking to challenge Senator Murphy (D-CT) in Connecticut are profiled here; their primary is August 13th, coming right up.
- In Delaware the primaries for the Democrats and Republicans have been canceled due to lack of participants. Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) will be vying with Eric Hansen (R-DE) for retiring Senator Carper’s (D-DE) seat, and, while there are no recent polls of which I’m aware, Rep Rochester would seem favored to win.
- In New Mexico, challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM) has a nickname brought on by the bad behaviors and policies of Mr Trump:
T.J. Trout, host of a show at KKOB, a commercial AM radio station licensed to Albuquerque, said he was not “trying to make you look bad” in reference to Domeneci’s cancelation [of an interview], who has been labelled in the past by Democrats in New Mexico as “No Answer Nella” for her refusal to answer tough questions in her quest to unseat Heinrich. …
Trout said that the Domenici campaign had a problem with “at least the first three questions” which he labeled as “political questions” about former President Donald Trump.
This could become a significant drag on Republican candidates who refuse to be associated with the former President. Voters will either feel the candidates are not candid, or are abandoning the former President. Republicans beware.
Now go relax.
Just think about all the snow you’ll be shoveling in a few months.
