It’s a big country, even when counting Senators.
- In Montana, Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights has been working hard, and announced completion of the first step of its purpose, which is to safeguard abortion rights.
The group behind Constitutional Initiative 128, Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights, said in a Friday press conference that it had collected more than 117,000 signatures since early April, about 57,000 more than the necessary 60,359. [Montana Free Press]
This may turn out to be significant for Senator Tester (D-MT), who is engaged in a currently close re-election contest with Tim Sheehy (R-MT). The opportunity to vote for protection of abortion rights may draw out otherwise uninterested voters, and Tester’s alignment with abortion rights will attract those voters. Of course, the same reasoning may apply to Mr. Sheehy, but the usual thinking is that anti-abortion voters have been fully energized prior to the Dobbs decision, but Dobbs energized previously dormant pro-choice voters. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/(no partner, just to emphasize) (1.7, just as when it collaborates with Democrat-aligned Impact Research), a Republican pollster, measures Montana’s Senator Tester (D-MT) and challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT) as even at 48% apiece. Seeing as the sponsor is Republican-aligned More Jobs, Less Government, I suspect Senator Tester is more likely ahead than behind. However, Fabrizio, et al, claims that adding in third party candidates and Tester loses five points, while Sheehy only loses two. Hmmmmmm.
- With the primaries still to come in Missouri, Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) has a comfortable 9 point lead, 47%-38%, over prospective Democratic nominee Lucas Kunce (D-MO), according to Emerson College Polling (FiveThirtyEight pollster rating of 2.9/3). Hawley’s previous victory in 2018 was by nearly six points over incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO).
- Prospective nominee Kari Lake (R-AZ) for the Arizona Senate seat finally has a good polling result, down only 1 to Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), 39%-38%. Unfortunately for Lake, the pollster is North Star Opinion Research, owner of a mediocre 1.2 rating, and the sponsor of the poll is American Greatness, a pro-Trump organization. I don’t take this one seriously, except to note that it’s probably trying to encourage conservative Arizonans to get out and vote in the primary, and encourage sheep-like behavior in independents in the general election.
- Public Policy Polling (1.4) gives Maryland Democrat Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) an 8 point lead, 48%-40%, over former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD), and that expands to 11 points if minor-party candidates are included. Public Policy Polling’s rating is very mediocre, though.
- Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (1.7), which is a pair of cooperating pollsters with Republican and Democratic links, respectively, tells the AARP that Senator Rosen (D-NV) of Nevada leads Republican candidate Sam Brown (R-NV) by five points, 47%-42%. These pollsters have worked together before, but a 1.7 suggests they are not balancing out as some might hope.
- Utah had its primaries last Tuesday, resulting in the Republicans selecting Rep John Curtis (R-UT) and the Democrats selecting Caroline Gleich (D-UT). Well, to be precise, Gleich’s primary was cancelled, as she was the only candidate for the Democrats in the primary, having won Party endorsement at their convention. However, another Democrat, Laird Hamblin (D-UT), is in the general election as a write-in, which may split the vote. Gleich also has no relevant experience, at least nothing is listed on Ballotpedia. It seems the Democrats are ill-organized in Utah.And for those who like a little schadenfreude in their breakfast cereal, Rep Curtis was not Mr Trump’s endorsee in this race, defeating that candidate by 20+ points. While it’s true that Rep Curtis garnered less than 52% of the Republican primary vote, the Utah Republicans don’t seem to be as deeply infected by pouty right wing fourth-raters as some States, and I expect them to pull together for an easy victory over Ms Gleich. This despite Rep Curtis being the replacement for Rep Chaffetz (R-UT), who resigned after various exhibitions of deep silliness a few years back. Updates on the Utah Senate race will only occur if something surprises me.
- In Texas Rep Allred’s (D-TX) Senate campaign finally received some good news as the UT Tyler Center for Opinion Research (1.7) suggests Senator Cruz’s (R-TX) lead is only three points, 45%-42%. But that rating of 1.7 does not inspire confidence in the accuracy of the poll. Its lack of congruency with the YouGov poll back a week or two, in which Cruz held an 11 point lead, also seems dismal. Still, a come from behind victory is often accompanied by a breakout point in which the leader’s margin is suddenly cut.
- Top rated Marquette University Law School (3.0) gives Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a five point lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 52%-47%. Republican hopes may not be fading in Wisconsin, but Hovde does need another breakthrough, and if he’s the subject of chronic Republican underperformance, his troubles may be deeper than he realizes.
- The Virginia primary, skipped for the Democrats as Senator Kaine (D-VA) had no opponents, yielded Hung Cao (R-VA) as the Republican nominee for the Senate. He won more than 64% of the primary vote, but has little obvious relevant experience. Whether that matters in Virginia, which currently has a Republican governor, is an open question.
- And North Dakota has a poll result: Senator Cramer (R-ND) 65%, Katrina Christiansen (D-ND) 28%, or a 37 point lead for the incumbent Senator. And, yes, Public Opinion Strategies has a mediocre 1.7 rating, and the sponsor of the poll, Brighter Future Alliance, sure looks Republican-aligned, but this is North Dakota. Even if the Senator’s lead is considerably less in reality, it’ll remain a positive lead, as no one really says.
