Last week, this week.
Foraging After Foregone News
- File under unsurprising: In California, Rep Schiff (D-CA) leads former MLB star Steve Garvey (R-CA) by 25 points, 62%-37%, according to Public Policy Institute of California (2.5/3 stars). This might be a bit much, as it’s a substantial step up from the previous poll in February by University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (also 2.5) that gave Schiff only a 14 point lead. But this is California, either lead is probably insurmountable. I shan’t mention this race again unless something interesting happens.
- So something interesting did happen with regards to the West Virginia race, and it’s not (yet) Senator Manchin (I-WV) re-entering the race after initially retiring. Instead, it’s me remembering that the 33 point lead of Governor Justice (R-WV) over former Mayor Elliott (D-WV) was measured by none other than Kaplan Strategies. They are the pollsters who gave Nevada Republican Senate nominee candidate Jeffrey Gunter, the sponsor of the particular poll, a 1 point lead, while other pollsters gave Sam Brown a 38 point lead; Brown won by 40+ points. Now, no sponsor is listed for the West Virginia poll, so maybe the results were not, ummmm, wildly inaccurate, but as Kaplan is now a suspect name, I think it’s safe to think that Justice’s real lead may be closer to 15 points, or even smaller. And that makes Manchin’s potential decision to step into this race even more interesting for Mr. Elliott.
- Steve Benen’s report on the hypocrisy of Senator Scott (R-FL) concerning IVF sparks some thoughts. Besides leaving an opening for Democratic challenger Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in this year’s Florida Senator race, I have to wonder if we can see such, shall we call it flexible morality, applying to all Republican candidates, or only to those who’ve climbed the corporate ladder? I must say that, without formally surveying the Republican Senatorial candidates, there are an awful lot of corporate types, rather than the preferable experienced governmental types.
- Pre-primary, Minnesota’s Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) has 14 and 15 point leads over the two top candidates for the Republican nomination, Joe Fraser (R-MN) and Royce White (R-MN), according to SurveyUSA (2.8). I’m surprised it’s this close, as Klobuchar won in 2018 by 24 points and in 2012 by 35 points, and will pay more attention to this race. Another poll, by top pollster Emerson College (2.9), gives Klobuchar an 11 point lead over Royce White, 48%-37%, which must also be disappointing.
- Public Opinion Strategies (1.7), sponsored by the NRSC, has Senator Tester (D-MT) even with challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT). A poll by a mediocre pollster, sponsored by a partisan organization, finding the candidates tied, suggests Tester may actually be ahead.
- Progressives may believe that Senator Cruz (R-TX) is vulnerable, but so far the pollsters in Texas don’t agree, as top pollster YouGov (2.9) gives Cruz an 11 point lead over challenger Rep Allred (D-TX), 45%-34%. Perhaps the Senator’s rebrand, reported by The Texas Tribune, is working; or it may be Rep Allred’s message is not getting out: 41% either expressed no opinion (17%) or a neutral view (24%) of him when asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the Democratic congressman from Dallas …
- Public Policy Polling (1.4) is giving New Mexico’s Senator Heinrich (D-NM) a 7 point lead, 47%-40%, over challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM) in the first poll since the New Mexico primaries. Seeing as Heinrich won in 2018 by 24 points, this result may be a trifle alarming for Democrats, but Domenici is the daughter of former New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM), and so, at least for older voters, it’s a familiar name. It may not be relevant, but Heinrich won in 2012 by 5+ points. In other news, Axios reports that Republicans view this as a sleeper race: With her name ID and personal wealth, national Republicans see the race as a sleeper that may also force Democrats to spend resources defending what is considered a safe seat.
- In contrast with YouGov’s (2.9) award of a 13 point lead to Rep Gallego (D-AZ) over Kari Lake (R-AZ) in the race for the open Senate seat in contested Arizona, Emerson College (also 2.9) gives Gallego a mere 5 point lead, 45%-41%.
- With primaries still to come, Michigan prospective nominees Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leads hard liner former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI) by 5 points, 43%-39%, according to Emerson College (2.9). While folks who demand instant results from the Democrats may be discontented, I doubt they’ll vote for Rogers in sufficient numbers to beat Slotkin absent a black swan event.
- In the first poll in Nevada since their primaries, Emerson College (2.9) gives Senator Rosen (D-NV) a big 12 point lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV), 50%-38%. For locally confident Republicans that must have come as quite a shock.
- Emerson College (2.9) gives Pennsylvania Senator Casey (D-PA) a 6 point lead over David McCormick (R-PA?), 47%-41%. This is congruent with previous Pennsylvania polls and suggests Mr McCormick has a steep mountain to climb.
- And in Wisconsin, Emerson College (2.9) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 3 point lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 46%-44%. A jitter in the data stream or is Baldwin losing steam? Only time will tell, and it’s notoriously close-mouthed.
- Maryland’s popular former governor and Senate candidate Larry Hogan (R-MD) has been endorsed by Mr. Trump, and wants to take a shower to wash off the stench, apparently:
“Well, I just said I didn’t … I didn’t seek it, I didn’t wanna have it, and I have no interest in it. It’s not something we’re gonna be promoting, that’s for sure,” Hogan, a common Trump critic, said in an interview with D.C.-area radio station WTOP when asked if he rejects the endorsement.
And now off to prepare for tomorrow’s flooding in Minnesota. Is caviar inappropriate?
