Don’t leave home without it! Whatever it is!
Forgotten News & Otherwise
- In June 4th background news, New Mexico’s Senator Heinrich (D-NM) and Nella Domenici (R-NM) won their primaries and the right to face each other in the Senate general election this November. The incumbent is expected to win in this blue state.
- Nevada’s June 11th primaries yielded winners in the persons of incumbent Senator Rosen (D-NV), with 107,000+ votes and 92% of the ballots in the Democratic primary, and Sam Brown (R-NV), with 64,000+ votes and nearly 57% of the primary vote in the Republican primary. Senator Rosen must run with the national message on abortion, plus local concerns. Brown must avoid abortion while bringing together the Republican factions and convincing independents to vote for him. The headwinds of abortion make this quite a challenge for Mr. Brown, a local businessman.
- Incidentally, in the Nevada Republican primary Mr. Brown defeated Mr. Gunter, the second place finisher, by 40+ points. As it was Kaplan Strategies (2.0) that recently gave Gunter a 1 point lead, I think I will be shaking my head in the future whenever I encounter Kaplan. Their results may be bought prior to sampling, it appears.
- The June 25th primary in New York has been canceled. The two major party candidates promoted to the general election in November are incumbent Senator Gillibrand (D-NY) and Mike Sapraicone (R-NY). The Senator won by 34 points in 2018, and, despite a couple of miscues, including the fiery lack of redemptive opportunity she, and others, imposed upon Senator Franken (D-MN) for the faux-pas that resulted in Franken resigning in disgrace, and her poor showing in her run for the Presidency, there’s little reason to think the inexperienced Sapraicone can offer a serious challenge in this enormously blue state.
- As expected, the June 11th North Dakota primary resulted in the advancement of incumbent Senator Cramer (R-ND) and Katrina Christiansen (D-ND). The latter’s experience consists of running in the 2022 Senate contest against Senator John Hoeven (R-ND) and losing by 30+ points. There seems little reason, in this solid Republican state, not to expect a repeat, although the fallout of the Dobbs decision may shrink the margin a little bit.
- Marist Poll (2.9) gives incumbent Senator Brown (D-OH) a five point lead, 50%-45%, over challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH) in Ohio, a hoped-for pickup by the Republicans.
- Marist Poll (2.9) gives incumbent Senator Casey (D-PA) a six point lead, 52%-46%, over David McCormick (R-PA?) in Pennsylvania.
- The Tyson Group, holder of a lowly 1.2 rating, has bad news for prospective Florida Democratic Senate nominee Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL): She’s down 13 points to incumbent Senator Scott (R-FL), 46%-33%, in the campaign for Scott’s Florida Senate seat. If this was a bigger name pollster, I’d be classifying the Florida race as becoming another sideshow, but 1.2 is not a good FiveThirtyEight rating. This being Florida, a big state, another poll will amble along, and here it is: Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab, holder of a mediocre 2.0 rating, has Rep Mucarsel-Powell down by only 2 to Senator Scott, 45%-43%. If more accurate than The Tyson Group and chronic Republican underperformance holds, Scott could be in trouble. Trouble, trouble, let’s add a third: PolCom Lab’s statistical pool is smaller than that of Tyson, 1000+ to 770. Interpretation and adjustment becomes more important than pool size at some point, but I don’t remember enough sampling from statistics & probability to say what the crossover point might be. Florida’s Senate race will remain interesting so long as well-regarded pollsters find a close race.
Current Summary
Trundling through the races, here’s what strikes me as still in doubt, or might be in view of future events:
- In Arizona, with primaries still to come, the Republicans appear to be melting down in a race they hoped to win.
- Florida remains unclear.
- Maryland may be in doubt, or candidate Larry Hogan (R-MD) may have alienated voters on both sides of the political spectrum, rendering this blue state blue.
- Michigan, in Slotkin (D) and Rogers (R) may see a heavyweight slugout, despite the burning tire fire that is the Michigan Republican Party.
- In Nevada, Senator Rosen (D-NV) would seem to have the initial advantage over Republican nominee Sam Brown (R-NV), but there’s still time.
- The surprise prize may not go to Maryland, but to New Jersey, as incumbent and indicted-for-bribery Senator Menendez has changed his Party registration from Democratic Party to Independent and filed to run for reelection, challenging primary winners Rep Andy Kim (D-NJ) and Curtis Bashaw (R-NJ). Without his presence, I’d expect Rep Kim to win in a walk, but now the race is subject to public perceptions of Menendez’s indictment and trial. Awaiting polls now.
- While not a done deal, Senator Brown (D-OH) seems comfortably ahead.
- Ditto Senator Casey (D-PA).
- Ditto Senator Baldwin (D-WI). Praise be to the power of incumbency!
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Governor Jim Justice (R-WV).
West Virginia appears to be changing columns from Democrats to Republicans. However, this expectation could disappear if Senator Manchin, who previously announced his retirement and changed his Party registration from Democratic Party to Independent, changes his mind and files to run against Elliott (D-WV) and Justice (R-WV). It’s not clear to me what happens in a Jim Justice vs Joe Manchin showdown, although, based on visage, it’s Justice all the way.
