All out of fingers. But who is out of hope? Depends where you live, I suppose.
The Leading Issue, Ctd
Which is reproductive health issues, and who controls them — those who carry the burden, or the government. Here’s a link to the kickoff of this series.
Dartagnan of Daily Kos recently presented a wrapup of the point of my The Leading Issue – it’s gone from being the path up the mountain of social prestige for anti-abortionists, nearly all Republicans, to being a hand grenade glued to the hands of those resolutely against abortion; for Republicans, being anti-abortion is a litmus test – unless your name is Larry Hogan (R-MD), and then it’s a near thing.
In order to lure more women voters to their side of the ballot, Republican candidates have only a couple of choices, one being to use a fear-based approach, such as the Divine will hate you if you vote for the pro-choice candidate, or other attributes of the Democrats are so fearful that the Republicans are still the better choice.
This has been going on, successfully, for thirty and more years, because Roe v Wade was the Republicans’ shield. That’s right, not the Democrats’, but the Republicans’. They could fund raise against that SCOTUS decision and rail against it and do the dance of the anti-abortion poseur on it, knowing this Constitutional right would protect them. Voters could vote for candidates with anti-abortion positions without fear of losing that Right, because neither State legislature nor Congress could override the decision of SCOTUS.
But the Republicans allowed themselves to be fooled by their own arguments, self-righteousness, and arrogance. The Republican wink wink nudge nudge , that is, their secret knowledge of their shield, of thirty, forty, fifty years ago was an unstable point, meaning it either had to get out in public, because secrets swiftly are not secrets as more and more people learn them, or be forgotten.
The wink wink nudge nudge, it turns out, was apparently forgotten, and now a lot of earnest anti-abortion politicians and members of the base celebrated their perceived victory brought on by the Dobbs decision, thereby gluing hand grenades to their persons. Dobbs tells women that they are not permitted to safeguard their bodies against biological mistakes and other catastrophes, that they may have to sacrifice themselves to satisfy the dubious sensibilities of those who imagine they know the mind of God.
But the Republicans are starting to wake up, maybe too late, to the menace on their left, of how Dobbs has persuaded women voters to vote for their lives and for their own sensibilities, and some of these politicians are reacting. This has its own risks for these politicians, of course, as the anti-abortion segment of the Republicans may abandon all candidates who flip flop on the issue. Caveat emptor.
All from pointers in Dartagnan’s article, for which I am grateful.
- The Keystone’s Sean Kitchen reports Republican nominee David McCormick (R-PA) is trying to tread a middle ground on the abortion issue after being an extremist. Look for incumbent Senator Casey’s (D-PA) lead to increase.
- Ohio Republican nominee Bernie Moreno (R-OH) is suddenly flip flopping on the abortion issue as it turns out Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will not be easily beaten.
- Prospective nominee Sam Brown (R-NV), already potentially in deep trouble, is suddenly muffling his anti-abortion tune as Axios reports.
- Prospective nominee Kari Lake (R-AZ) was actually out in front on this one, beginning with the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision that a territorial law predating Arizona’s entry into the Union forbidding abortion was still applicable. No doubt the Republican Justices thought they were doing the right thing, but Lake nearly blew a gasket, even though she had, two years earlier, endorsed that law. She saw the wildfire that is abortion and began running away from it early. I doubt this’ll help her generally bedraggled reputation, which is so bad she may not even win the nomination, but at least, in this case, her political instincts are good.
Add in the previously reported Larry Hogan (R-MD) flip flop, and we can see this is getting serious.
But the Democrats have chosen to put pressure on the Republicans by emphasizing that certain right-wing elements do not approve even of even contraception.
Senate Republicans have blocked legislation designed to protect women’s access to contraception, arguing that the bill was just a political stunt as Democrats mount an election-year effort to put GOP senators on the record on reproductive rights issues, [AP]
For those voters who pay attention to politics, this will be significant. However, this is a shockingly small percentage. How many Americans are aware that access to contraception has been threatened by certain conservative elements?
The Democrats will have to work hard to get that message across. But if they succeed, they may win a few more seats in the House, and even save one in the Senate.
Steve Benen has an overview here. Professor Richardson adds one more succinct point:
All the Republicans running for reelection this year voted no: John Barrasso (R-WY), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Kevin Cramer (R-ND), Ted Cruz (R-TX), Deb Fischer (R-NE), Josh Hawley (R-MO), Pete Ricketts (R-NE), Rick Scott (R-FL), and Roger Wicker (R-MS).
So there is an element of vulnerability for the Republicans.
And In Other News…
- Senator Menendez, formerly (D-NJ) and now (I-NJ), has filed for reelection, complicating matters for New Jersey Democrats. Menendez has been indicted on charges of accepting bribes, which he strenuously denies.
- The New Jersey primaries took place on June 4th, and, as expected, Rep Andy Kim (D-NJ) won the nomination of the Democrats. He won with 316,302 votes and 75% of the total Democratic vote, which are respectable, if not overwhelming, numbers.The winner of the Republican nomination is Curtis Bashaw (R-NJ), a businessman who has some minor government experience. Bashaw won 115,000 votes out of a total of 239,000 cast in the Republican primary, or 48%, suggesting some dissatisfaction with Bashaw in Republican ranks. Notably, Trump endorsee Christine Serrano-Glassner took second placeand did not advance to the general election, possibly indicating waning Trump influence in New Jersey.
If it were Kim and Bashaw only, I’d look at these numbers and give it to Kim, but Senator Menendez filing to run as an independent may considerably complicate the calculus.
- Also on June 4th Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) and businessman Tim Sheehy (R-MT) advanced to the general election via their respective primaries in Montana.
Senator Tester advanced with 56,000+ votes, or 97% of the Democratic primary votes. Sheehy also gained 56,000+ votes, or nearly 74% of the Republican primary votes.
Look for a tight race: Sheehy, a businessman, will flash his bona fides, while trying to pivot his position on abortion; Tester will talk about extremist Republican positions on abortion while stressing his experience and ties to the people of Montana.
- In Ohio, National Public Affairs, of unknown rating, gives incumbent Senator Brown (D-OH) an 8 point lead over challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH?), 54%-46%.
- YouGov (2.9) performed a series of surveys pitting Senator Warren (D-MA) against a number of possible Republican nominees. Her smallest margin? +23 points. Massachusetts has been known to surprise in the past, if my reader remembers Senator Warren’s predecessor Senator Brown (R-MA), but it appears unlikely this year.
- Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research (2.0) suggests that probable Michigan nominees Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and Mike Rogers (R-MI) are essentially tied at around 41% to each. Rogers shouldn’t relax, as the recent history of polling and special elections indicates a chronic undercount of Democratic votes, suggesting Slotkin may lead by 2-4 points. Mitchell Research (2.0) is giving Slotkin exactly that, a 3 point lead at 36%-33%, which suggests undecideds are plentiful. Interestingly, in primary polling the same pollster gives Rogers a lead over former Rep Justin Amash (R-MI) of 20 points, but the numbers are 28%-8%! Are Michigan Republicans that dissatisfied? Actually, given recent news of the disaster that is the Michigan Republican Party, that may – and should be – true. Is Rogers in unknown trouble? The primary is not until August 6th, not leaving a lot of time to remedy matters.
- Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research has Senator Casey (D-PA) with a 7 point lead, 49%-42%, over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?) in Pennsylvania., which is congruent with the earlier poll by an inferior pollster that gave Casey an 8 point lead.
- Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research measures Senator Baldwin (D-WI) with a lead of 8 points, 47%-39%, over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?) in Wisconsin. There’s definitely a trend of the businessman cum newbie Senate politician not doing well in early polling.
- In more primary polling, three polls have looked at the Nevada Republican Senate primary in the last month. Two give Scott Brown (R-NV), thought to be the apparent nominee, a 38 point lead over Jeffrey Ross Gunter, while one gives Gunter a one point lead. The two pollsters finding in Brown’s favor are Tarrance Group (1.6) and Noble Predictive Insights (2.4). The latter pollster is Kaplan Strategies (2.0). I’m left wondering which is the prostitute pollster.
- Kaplan Strategies (2.0) is giving Governor Jim Justice (R-WV) a 33 point lead, 60%-27%, over former Mayor Glenn Elliott (D-WV) in the West Virginia contest for retiring Senator Joe Manchin’s (was D-WV, now I-WV) seat. Unless something interesting happens, I shan’t mention this race again.
