NOTE: This entry appears to have been inserted into the blog on May 1, so I’m republishing it. My apologies.
A fifth installment? Is this then considered a success? I doubt it.
The Trump Problem
The Republican Party has, as a whole, the problem of the former President Trump on their hands. Convicted of 34 felony counts falsifying business records, he is now a convicted criminal. His allies’, or perhaps more accurately minions‘, support of him is now a potential anchor around their necks.
And many of them added more and more cables to that anchor over the last weeks as they went to New York City and pronounced Trump innocent, thus discrediting themselves when the jury came back with a guilty verdict, and did so with notable speed.
Some Members of Congress don’t care. Representing safe districts or states, they only worry, or worried, about being primaried by challengers more extreme than themselves.
But for others, their alliance with someone who committed crimes in order to be elected seven years ago is a major problem for independent and moderate conservative voters, who will refuse to vote for both Trump and his allies, despite Democratic flaws.
It all depends on Democratic messaging. I expect it’ll be expertly handled.
And if Trump continues to shriek about rigged trials and claim there is evidence of his innocence that was not submitted at the trial, it only gets worse for him. His claim that he was not permitted to bring those witnesses forth is ludicrous to all but the most devoted MAGA-head.
Candidate Quality
Recognition that candidate quality matters to independent voters must be an irritating surprise for some ambitious would-be candidates, but it’s a necessity in today’s world of aggressive national adversaries and nuclear weapons. The Republican Senate Election debacle of 2022 occurred under the leadership of Senator Rick Scott (R-FL), but whether it’s because the Republicans see his leadership as a joke, or because he’s running for reelection this year, he’s been replaced with Senator Steve Daines (R-MT), who appears to be more serious about the job than Senator Scott. The Republican pundit Erick Erickson, despite his desperation to keep the herd together, seems to get it:
And winning the election means picking real candidates who are not going to alienate middle class, independent voters *cough* Kari Lake *cough*. Frankly, in 2022, the GOP nominated clunker candidates who scratched itches, but made independent voters squeamish. In other words, the right’s reaction to the left’s actions was to nominate candidates who could “fight,” but lost all the fights.
To my mind, in 2020 and 2022 the political far-right nominated power and position hungry candidates, ideologues who were ideologues because it gave them social prestige, and theocrats who either passionately believe they were doing God’s will, or were in it for the social prestige thing.
Erickson’s problem is that he’s looking for candidates who keep him happy, keeping in mind he’s a far-right wing extremist, while making independents happy as well, and that’s a really big stretch. Worse, the ideologically pure, right or left, are rarely competent politicians in the American mold. They may fit right in with the murderous cultures of V. Lenin or F. Franco, but being humble rather than ambitious and arrogant as required by many in America? Hard to do for them. After all, God’s on their side.
Here’s a short article on the aforementioned Senator Daines:
An early Trump supporter, Daines worked with the former president to secure his endorsement of [“winsome candidates”]. Trump endorsed Gov. Jim Justice over Rep. Alex Mooney in West Virginia, and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy over Rep. Matt Rosendale in Montana, as well as former representative Mike Rogers in Michigan, David McCormick in Pennsylvania (whom he had passed over for Mehmet Oz in 2022) and businessman Eric Hovde in Wisconsin.
For Daines, a winsome candidate has independent voter appeal, a laudable and important goal. Does Daines have the judgment and drive to push his selections over the finish line? I see some problems.
- Daines, a former Proctor & Gamble business exec, appears to like fellow business execs (McCormick, Justice, Hovde) and ideologues (Rogers, Sheehy – the latter, a naif, burdened with a scandal already). I expect former Governor Justice to become Senator Justice (R-WV), but I see McCormick losing by two or more points to Senator Casey (D-PA), Senator Tester (D-MT) beating Sheehy by three points or so in Montana, and Hovde to be slapped down, hard, by Senator Baldwin (D-WI). Only Rogers has experience in government at the Congressional level, and even he has a reputation as an ideologue. I don’t know if Rogers can win or not, assuming he even wins his primary. Daines picks appear to fall into two categories becoming increasingly unpopular with independents.
- Daines may be picking those he’s most comfortable with, and not evaluating them for legislative competence. That’s an amateur mistake.
- And who interviewed Daines? Marc Thiessen, one of the WaPo conservative opinion writers who doesn’t see his job as being hard-hitting when writing of conservatives. I generally don’t read him because his evaluations are damn silly, such as Trump being the most honest politician out there, and if you do, don’t take his Expecting great things approach to heart. From what little I’ve read, he’s overly optimistic about conservative candidates.
Joan McCarter of Daily Kos believes GOP Senate candidates are, once again, of dubious quality.
Polling Pitfalls
Mercy Ormont on Daily Kos has a meditation on good pollsters and bad pollsters these days.
And In Senate Campaign News
- Apparently the selection of Royce White (no relation) as the GOP endorsee for the GOP’s nomination for the Minnesota Senate seat of Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) has stimulated reports from several outlets on his past behavior as a candidate. If you’re interested, Aldous J Pennyfarthing on Daily Kos has a schadenfreude-filled summary. The primary is still to come.
- Nevada’s Senator Rosen (D-NV) has some more encouragement in what was considered a competitive State as The Tyson Group has given her a startling 14 point lead over leading Republican candidate for nomination Sam Brown (R-NV), 47%-33%. However, this pollster’s rating is only 1.2 out of 3, perhaps due to its use of online participants, so Democrats shouldn’t become too excited. Indeed, perhaps I shouldn’t cite such pollsters.
- NBC News reports that the situation in New Jersey could be a lot more complicated than expected for the Democrats:
Indicted Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has collected the necessary signatures to run for re-election as an independent, five people familiar with the matter said.
Menendez needs 800 signatures by Tuesday to gain ballot access in November and hopes to reach closer to 10,000 signatures by then, said three sources with knowledge of his plans.
One of the sources, who previously worked for Menendez, said Menendez, who is on trial on federal bribery charges, wants the number of signatures to be a “statement” in and of itself, “to show the level of support he still has.”
Menendez’s pride could be the downfall of the Democrats’ dreams of retaining control of the Senate. New Jersey may suddenly be on the hot list.
- In Maryland the former Governor and Republican candidate for the open Senate seat Larry Hogan (R-MD), does the respectable thing when his Party leader is convicted on all 34 charges of felony business record falsification – he issues a statement reminding folks to act in a sober, serious manner:
Regardless of the result, I urge all Americans to respect the verdict and the legal process. At this dangerously divided moment in our history, all leaders—regardless of party—must not pour fuel on the fire with more toxic partisanship. We must reaffirm what has made this nation great: the rule of law.
In response, he’s been smacked in the metaphorical teeth by what passes for the Republican Party leadership these days. Hogan is attempting to rally the traditional Republican Party that understood what it meant to be an American political party, but it’s not at all clear that he’ll be successful. In some ways, it would be very healthy for the United States if he were to win. But there’s probably more benefit in Democratic candidate Alsobrooks winning. Maryland may be coming back off the hot list, but Hogan gets to join the list of genuine American political heroes, while most of the rest of the current Republican Party leadership will not be on that list. Only those who testified to the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack would be eligible for the list, in my mind, such as former White House staffer Cassidy Hutchinson.
- An early May poll that escaped my attention gives incumbent Senator Casey (D-PA) of Pennsylvania an 8 point lead, 49%-41%, over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). The pollster is GS Strategy Group, with a mediocre rating of 1.5.
- A mid-May poll in Washington gives Senator Cantwell (D-WA) a 9 point lead, 39%-30%, over the guy who they must consider the leading challenger, Raul Garcia (R-WA). Mr. Garcia has little experience in electoral politics. I’m sure Cantwell would like to be closer to the magic number of 50%, but she has a substantial lead. The pollster is Elway Research (1.9). The jungle primary is still to come in August.
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Governor Jim Justice (R-WV). Source: Wikipedia.
Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is now (I-WV). Might he be considering rescinding his retirement announcement and take on Republican West Virginia heavyweight Governor Jim Justice (R-WV) and relative unknown Glenn Elliott (D-WV)? In some ways, it feels like West Virginia is a businessman’s political playground, as Manchin, Justice, and Don Blankenship (D-WV) are all businessmen who’ve been involved in this Senate race. Could there be personal animosity animating some of these maneuverings? This is all speculation, but if Manchin does enter the race, the tug of war between the two political titans could allow Elliott to win. West Virginia doesn’t go on the hot list unless Manchin decides he wants to retain his Senate seat.
By the way, the picture on the right of Governor Justice is just the sort of visage I’d rather not face for a job interview.
- In Wisconsin, GS Strategy Group (1.5) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 12 point lead, 49%-37%, over Eric Hovde. If a more respectable pollster gives similar numbers, I suspect the Republicans will write Hovde and Wisconsin off.Incidentally, Mr. Hovde is another businessman. Are the Republicans becoming the Party of the Businessman? They have a long association with Big Business, to use the old terminology, but usually as representatives of Big Business, not as what feels like a private club devoted to vanity political runs. But with Hovde in WI, Scott in FL, Daines in MT, McCormick in PA, Justice, Manchin, and Blankenship (a former and, I suspect, future Republican) in WV, and no doubt a few others that slipped my notice or mind, well, that’s a lot of ridiculously rich businessmen seeking to buy themselves a Senate seat.Heck, it feels quite Roman. Buyers beware.
