Monthly Archives: June 2024

This is what happens when your brain is addicted to logic.

In Mr. Holmes (2015), the famed private detective and logician is facing twin endings, of his career and his life, and the painful parallels of the two are examined in some detail.

And that’s about it.

It’s nicely acted and, overall, well done. But I never became excited by it. I mean, it’s been like a month since I saw it, and I’ve had no motivation to write this review.

So have at it. Perhaps it’ll appeal to you more than it did to me.

Remember Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT)? Perhaps you even bought some stock to show you’re a part of the Trump group? How’s that working out for you? Here’s the six month chart for today from yahoo! finance:

That feeling when you realize your entire investment has gone ker-plunk.

This is an object lesson in what happens when a stock is evaluated on something other than its business fundamentals, in a nutshell. Will it recover? I doubt it. Their product offerings are paltry, and while lying comes naturally to Mr. Trump, I’m sure the other executives are well aware that freely wagging their tongues over corporate fantasies lacking a connection to reality could result in prison time if a shareholder, having subsequently lost their investment as DJT implodes, becomes irate and files a complaint with the SEC.

But, as a colleague of mine once observed, most dying stocks do enjoy dead cat bounces.

I knew about this. I wrote about it during the Obama Administration.

And, yet, I admit that I forgot about this and plum didn’t understand why Biden was permitting, in the technical sense, so much oil drilling and even releasing oil from the strategic reserves.

But Daily Kos‘ Mark Sumner reminds me:

In the last two years, President Joe Biden grabbed the oil markets by the throat and shook them. He’s not just lowered the price that Americans are paying for gas as they head out on summer vacation, he has sent a shockwave of fear through OPEC leaders like Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The urge to simplify foreign situations is understandable, but demands that fossil fuel pumping cease has the unfortunate – such a neutral word for such a complicated and dangerous situation – effect of strengthening the hand of genocidal maniac President Vladimir Putin, because Russia’s primary source of foreign revenue is fossil fuels. Biden better enabling fossil fuels lowers prices, meaning Putin’s revenue is lowered.

Meaning the Russians have a harder time buying the foreign parts required to build the weapons they use to kill and subjugate Ukrainians in Putin’s War. For climate activists, such as those who painted Stonehenge orange a couple of days ago while demanding we stop pumping fossil fuels, this point may not be obvious, but it’s something to bear in mind. Precise thinking, in short supply these days, is deeply important. How so here?

It’s all a web, and one action over here may have an unexpected reaction over there. Should we stop pumping fossil fuels? Not yet, sad to say. The lower the supply, the more everyone who refuses to go along with the other side of the equation – which is, stop using fossil fuels! – is willing to pay for them. And that is how Putin increases his war machine.

The proper side of the equation is the demand side, not the supply side. Reducing supply leads to unwanted consequences.

Last week, this week.

Foraging After Foregone News

• File under unsurprising: In California, Rep Schiff (D-CA) leads former MLB star Steve Garvey (R-CA) by 25 points, 62%-37%, according to Public Policy Institute of California (2.5/3 stars). This might be a bit much, as it’s a substantial step up from the previous poll in February by University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (also 2.5) that gave Schiff only a 14 point lead. But this is California, either lead is probably insurmountable. I shan’t mention this race again unless something interesting happens.
• So something interesting did happen with regards to the West Virginia race, and it’s not (yet) Senator Manchin (I-WV) re-entering the race after initially retiring. Instead, it’s me remembering that the 33 point lead of Governor Justice (R-WV) over former Mayor Elliott (D-WV) was measured by none other than Kaplan Strategies. They are the pollsters who gave Nevada Republican Senate nominee candidate Jeffrey Gunter, the sponsor of the particular poll, a 1 point lead, while other pollsters gave Sam Brown a 38 point lead; Brown won by 40+ points. Now, no sponsor is listed for the West Virginia poll, so maybe the results were not, ummmm, wildly inaccurate, but as Kaplan is now a suspect name, I think it’s safe to think that Justice’s real lead may be closer to 15 points, or even smaller. And that makes Manchin’s potential decision to step into this race even more interesting for Mr. Elliott.
• Steve Benen’s report on the hypocrisy of Senator Scott (R-FL) concerning IVF sparks some thoughts. Besides leaving an opening for Democratic challenger Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in this year’s Florida Senator race, I have to wonder if we can see such, shall we call it flexible morality, applying to all Republican candidates, or only to those who’ve climbed the corporate ladder? I must say that, without formally surveying the Republican Senatorial candidates, there are an awful lot of corporate types, rather than the preferable experienced governmental types.
• Pre-primary, Minnesota’s Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) has 14 and 15 point leads over the two top candidates for the Republican nomination, Joe Fraser (R-MN) and Royce White (R-MN), according to SurveyUSA (2.8). I’m surprised it’s this close, as Klobuchar won in 2018 by 24 points and in 2012 by 35 points, and will pay more attention to this race. Another poll, by top pollster Emerson College (2.9), gives Klobuchar an 11 point lead over Royce White, 48%-37%, which must also be disappointing.
• Public Opinion Strategies (1.7), sponsored by the NRSC, has Senator Tester (D-MT) even with challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT). A poll by a mediocre pollster, sponsored by a partisan organization, finding the candidates tied, suggests Tester may actually be ahead.
• Progressives may believe that Senator Cruz (R-TX) is vulnerable, but so far the pollsters in Texas don’t agree, as top pollster YouGov (2.9) gives Cruz an 11 point lead over challenger Rep Allred (D-TX), 45%-34%. Perhaps the Senator’s rebrand, reported by The Texas Tribune, is working; or it may be Rep Allred’s message is not getting out: 41% either expressed no opinion (17%) or a neutral view (24%) of him when asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the Democratic congressman from Dallas …
• Public Policy Polling (1.4) is giving New Mexico’s Senator Heinrich (D-NM) a 7 point lead, 47%-40%, over challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM) in the first poll since the New Mexico primaries. Seeing as Heinrich won in 2018 by 24 points, this result may be a trifle alarming for Democrats, but Domenici is the daughter of former New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM), and so, at least for older voters, it’s a familiar name. It may not be relevant, but Heinrich won in 2012 by 5+ points. In other news, Axios reports that Republicans view this as a sleeper race: With her name ID and personal wealth, national Republicans see the race as a sleeper that may also force Democrats to spend resources defending what is considered a safe seat.
• In contrast with YouGov’s (2.9) award of a 13 point lead to Rep Gallego (D-AZ) over Kari Lake (R-AZ) in the race for the open Senate seat in contested Arizona, Emerson College (also 2.9) gives Gallego a mere 5 point lead, 45%-41%.
• With primaries still to come, Michigan prospective nominees Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leads hard liner former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI) by 5 points, 43%-39%, according to Emerson College (2.9). While folks who demand instant results from the Democrats may be discontented, I doubt they’ll vote for Rogers in sufficient numbers to beat Slotkin absent a black swan event.
• In the first poll in Nevada since their primaries, Emerson College (2.9) gives Senator Rosen (D-NV) a big 12 point lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV), 50%-38%. For locally confident Republicans that must have come as quite a shock.
• Emerson College (2.9) gives Pennsylvania Senator Casey (D-PA) a 6 point lead over David McCormick (R-PA?), 47%-41%. This is congruent with previous Pennsylvania polls and suggests Mr McCormick has a steep mountain to climb.
• And in Wisconsin, Emerson College (2.9) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 3 point lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 46%-44%. A jitter in the data stream or is Baldwin losing steam? Only time will tell, and it’s notoriously close-mouthed.
• Maryland’s popular former governor and Senate candidate Larry Hogan (R-MD) has been endorsed by Mr. Trump, and wants to take a shower to wash off the stench, apparently:

  “Well, I just said I didn’t … I didn’t seek it, I didn’t wanna have it, and I have no interest in it. It’s not something we’re gonna be promoting, that’s for sure,” Hogan, a common Trump critic, said in an interview with D.C.-area radio station WTOP when asked if he rejects the endorsement.

And now off to prepare for tomorrow’s flooding in Minnesota. Is caviar inappropriate?

Evapotranspirate:

Evapotranspiration is the sum of all processes by which water moves from the land surface to the atmosphere via evaporation and transpiration. [USGS]

Noted in “Embrace wooden buildings for the sake of your health and the planet’s,” Graham Lawton, NewScientist (8 June 2024, paywall):

A standard building has high “thermal inertia”, meaning it takes a lot of time and energy to warm up and cool down. But in a [cross-laminated timber, or CLT, ] building, the moment you start the heating, you start to feel the warmth in the atmosphere, says Petit. Cooling is less straightforward, but at Marcadet, this is aided by the plants and trees in the building’s rooftop garden. When it is hot, these evapotranspirate water from the soil and hence draw out heat from the rooms below.

Your Old Uncle laughing at a sex joke. That’ll teach you to tell your elders dirty jokes rather than engage in political discussions that result in mutual evisceration. At least he’s not squirting milk out his nose.

Godzilla Minus One (2023) is the series member – #37, according to Wikipedia – that finally takes the big step up. This is not a vague plot concerning a clutch of monsters fighting each other for obscure reasons. In this one, someone takes center stage and makes it stick. Pilot and survivor of World War II Kōichi Shikishima is burdened with a peculiarly Japanese version of survivor’s guilt. He’s looking for redemption in the remains of a devastated Tokyo, but he’s wracked with nightmares of a monster that he encountered during the war. And then, years later, the monster appears again, wrecking shipping on its way to Tokyo.

In response, Japanese citizens form a self-defense group and recruit Kōichi to man their lone plane, which will be used as a lure to bring the monster to a designated location where the scientists think they can destroy the monster. Their plane is a neglected, experimental plane that can only be brought into service by a man from Kōichi’s past, a man who knows his terrible secret.

And loathes him.

Well, the rest would be spoilers. But it should be clear to the experienced Godzilla fan that this is more of a plot than in any other entry in the canon; I can’t speak for other media.

But is it done well?

For the most part, yes, but it’s not perfect. Some of it may be simply my American eyes not interpreting the details properly in the context of Japanese society. For example, the rage of Kōichi at himself is expressed in such a way as to be reminiscent of the old movies, and I never much cared for that single dimensional approach, even if it is realistic.

Godzilla itself was also disturbingly mechanistic. Perhaps this is an allusion to other episodes that have suggested that his power source is actually a nuclear power plant. Or maybe the storytellers ran out of budget. But that is a little hard to believe, as other special effects are simply spectacular; indeed, the movie won an Oscar for special effects.

In terms of plot, the movie has some questionable points. For example, the emphasis on this being a privately run self-defense force was not believable. It seems highly unlikely that former Japanese Navy destroyers, even disarmed, would be given to such a group. Defense of the homeland is the business of government, not a bunch of World War II veterans. Another element, missing from all Godzilla movies, is Where is the Emperor? One would think a Divine, even a discredited Divine, would be called upon to lead the defense, but, as in all Godzilla movies, there’s no mention of the Emperor. And, finally, the wrap up is too soft, too unbelievable. It may have a symbolic point, but I couldn’t help but think there’s rarely a clean ending to any really good story, and this ending must have been created by Mr. Clean.

But there is one more element that is often not considered, and that’s the context. For the casual audience, this is a monster movie, but for the dedicated Godzilla fan, the context of actors in rubber suits and bad acting and dubious plots give this movie a bit of an extra ooomph, a transformation from a generally puzzling collection of films, or worse too-explicit (yes, yes, the point to this one is nuclear power is bad! I figured that out, thank you!), to a movie that explores the personal costs of a mere man becoming a hero, no matter how flawed in character or in story.

This is the best installment in the series, although I haven’t seen Godzilla x Kong (2024), and it’s almost worth a Recommended rating. If you haven’t seen it and have an inclination to see it, satisfy that inclination.

Macroevolutionary ratchet:

The team found some other evolutionary surprises as well. First, saber-toothed species seemed to show faster changes to skull and jaw shapes earlier in their evolutionary history than species with shorter canines — essentially a “recipe” for evolving into saber-toothed feline-like predators, Chatar said in a statement.

The research group also hypothesizes that the “over-specialization” of saber teeth more rapidly led groups with that feature to extinction.

This theory is called a macroevolutionary ratchet. “This phenomenon has been proposed as a potential driver of decline, wherein evolution favors the loss of early generalized forms, leading to the emergence of more specialized, yet more vulnerable, forms later in the history of the lineage,” Chatar says. [“Saber Teeth are as Mysterious Evolutionarily as They are Iconic Visually,” Paul Smaglik, Discover (paywall)]

I wonder if cheetahs are an example of this phenomenon; humans are rather the opposite.

I just like this picture as it’s evocative of another era. This is the Main Navy and Munitions Buildings, built in 1918 and demolished in 1970.

How much alike, and how much different, are we from the Americans who built and worked in these buildings?

More info here.

Axios has a disturbing report:

The number of partisan-backed outlets designed to look like impartial news outlets has officially surpassed the number of real, local daily newspapers in the U.S., according to a new analysis.

Why it matters: Many of those sites are targeted to swing states — a clear sign that they’re designed to influence politics.

An independent press run by public spirited citizens is a vital part of a free democracy. These are not – the chained dogs of people frantic to win, because that’s how they advance up the all-important social ladder of prestige and, well, We’re better than you!

Which is all a bit pathetic and a commentary on how the evolutionary positive features of yesterday just don’t scale up so well.

PS Gotta love this:

Catch up quick: These types of websites are often referred to as “pink slime,” a term that originated in the ground beef industry.

• The term has been used for more than a decade to describe politically motivated websites masquerading as independent local news outlets.

Wow. Just wow.

Mr Trump visited Capitol Hill yesterday. Rep Schiff’s (D-CA) comment?

It’s bring your felon to work day. pic.twitter.com/XNMu6JQ2d8

— Adam Schiff (@AdamSchiff) June 13, 2024

And yesterday’s predicted behaviors begin. First, let’s set the table: Hunter Biden’s trial was a Federal investigation and prosecution leading to convictions, in contrast to the Trump trial, which was a State investigation and prosecution, resulting in convictions. For those readers who don’t quite understand the legal niceties, State prosecutions are beyond the meddling of the President or Congress, as Rep Jordan (R-OH) has found out. Federal prosecutions, while the territory of the DoJ, could be subjected to undue influence, so the fact that Hunter Biden was convicted suggests that either President Biden threw his surviving son under the bus, or he’s terrible at meddling – or he did the right thing and didn’t meddle.

Let’s lead off with Rep Andrew Clyde (R-AL):

Hunter Biden’s guilty verdict is nothing more than the Left’s attempt to create the illusion of equal justice.

Don’t fall for it. [X]

Brevity with conspiracy. I like it. But failing to confuse the reader with loads of justificatory bullshit runs the risk letting the reader say, “Wha–?!” and recognize the contradiction. 3/5.

Kash Patel:

“Hunter Biden’s guilty verdict is a rare example of constitutional justice, one not where individuals receive biased treatment based on their last name,” Patel said. “The jury was able to consider the prosecution and defense evidence in full, in accordance with due process — a right that was single-handedly bastardized against President Trump by the judge, jury and prosecutors in New York.” [NBC News]

Positive points for bullshit, negative points for not presenting evidence that Trump was mistreated by the legal system of New York, more negative points for not mentioning the Federal vs State distinction, and more positive points for not claiming Hunter was sacrificed on the altar of the Left. 3.5/5, I’d say, but ya couldn’t dance to it. Oh, and Patel will look back on this moment in twenty years and squirm uncontrollably. We’re not talking about a bench trial, we’re talking about a jury trial, and if base illegalities did take place, the jury would have found for Trump. Instead, they found for the State, and rather quickly.

Former Trump advisor Stephen Miller falls down on the job:

The gun charges are a giant misdirection. An easy op for DOJ to sell to a pliant media that is all too willing to be duped. Don’t be gaslit. This is all about protecting Joe Biden and only Joe Biden.

No evidence, too generic, and projects Mr. Trump’s central character flaw of being a solipsist onto President Biden, which, given the President’s behavior patterns over the year, flawed as they might be in my reader’s eyes, does not match up as a narcissist. 1/5, and trying to not look embarrassed when questioned by folks who depend on you, Mr. Miller, will be a chore much like trying to choke down cowshit.

Non-public facing people can be a bit more forthright. Here’s an anonymous Republican strategist:

“It, at a minimum, slows the momentum and the clear-cut argument that the Trump campaign previously had about Biden’s weaponization of the justice system. … It’s less of a bumper-sticker than it was before.” [NBC News]

Of course, strategists who lie to themselves and others become unemployed rather quickly. Allies are not in the same boat, but they hate surprises even more. This guy shows poor judgment in being an ally of Trump, but they are at least honest:

“I think this won’t matter a ton, but it undercuts the argument of a two-tiered system of justice,” said one Trump ally who made the case that the former president would be better off letting that line of attack wither. “The more that argument exists and is pushed, the worse it is for Trump. It’s too close to ‘threats to democracy’ and drives that issue — the only issue where Biden enjoys a lead.” [NBC News]

4/5. The deduction comes from the misjudgment – or lie – that Biden only enjoys a lead on threats to democracy. Respect for military service, management of government debt, support for law enforcement, employment, even immigration, these are just some of the issues in which Biden enjoys an edge – in reality. In the realm of lies, though, he’s in trouble.

Given all these quotes, though, perhaps a Democrat should get a quote.

“The only ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome’ going on around here is on the other side of the aisle,” [Rep Jim McGovern (D-MA)] explained. “People are saying that Biden orchestrated the conviction of his own son in order to justify the criminal charges against Trump. That is how you think when you are in a cult.” [Maddowblog]

It’s a cult, a cult devoted to the idea that passionate religious zeal is as valid as sober appraisals of reality, a cult in which, as is usually the case, the leaders are grifters.

Which sounds like a band name. But they’re looking good this season.

Don’t leave home without it! Whatever it is!

Forgotten News & Otherwise

• In June 4th background news, New Mexico’s Senator Heinrich (D-NM) and Nella Domenici (R-NM) won their primaries and the right to face each other in the Senate general election this November. The incumbent is expected to win in this blue state.
• Nevada’s June 11th primaries yielded winners in the persons of incumbent Senator Rosen (D-NV), with 107,000+ votes and 92% of the ballots in the Democratic primary, and Sam Brown (R-NV), with 64,000+ votes and nearly 57% of the primary vote in the Republican primary. Senator Rosen must run with the national message on abortion, plus local concerns. Brown must avoid abortion while bringing together the Republican factions and convincing independents to vote for him. The headwinds of abortion make this quite a challenge for Mr. Brown, a local businessman.
• Incidentally, in the Nevada Republican primary Mr. Brown defeated Mr. Gunter, the second place finisher, by 40+ points. As it was Kaplan Strategies (2.0) that recently gave Gunter a 1 point lead, I think I will be shaking my head in the future whenever I encounter Kaplan. Their results may be bought prior to sampling, it appears.
• The June 25th primary in New York has been canceled. The two major party candidates promoted to the general election in November are incumbent Senator Gillibrand (D-NY) and Mike Sapraicone (R-NY). The Senator won by 34 points in 2018, and, despite a couple of miscues, including the fiery lack of redemptive opportunity she, and others, imposed upon Senator Franken (D-MN) for the faux-pas that resulted in Franken resigning in disgrace, and her poor showing in her run for the Presidency, there’s little reason to think the inexperienced Sapraicone can offer a serious challenge in this enormously blue state.
• As expected, the June 11th North Dakota primary resulted in the advancement of incumbent Senator Cramer (R-ND) and Katrina Christiansen (D-ND). The latter’s experience consists of running in the 2022 Senate contest against Senator John Hoeven (R-ND) and losing by 30+ points. There seems little reason, in this solid Republican state, not to expect a repeat, although the fallout of the Dobbs decision may shrink the margin a little bit.
• Marist Poll (2.9) gives incumbent Senator Brown (D-OH) a five point lead, 50%-45%, over challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH) in Ohio, a hoped-for pickup by the Republicans.
• Marist Poll (2.9) gives incumbent Senator Casey (D-PA) a six point lead, 52%-46%, over David McCormick (R-PA?) in Pennsylvania.
• The Tyson Group, holder of a lowly 1.2 rating, has bad news for prospective Florida Democratic Senate nominee Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL): She’s down 13 points to incumbent Senator Scott (R-FL), 46%-33%, in the campaign for Scott’s Florida Senate seat. If this was a bigger name pollster, I’d be classifying the Florida race as becoming another sideshow, but 1.2 is not a good FiveThirtyEight rating. This being Florida, a big state, another poll will amble along, and here it is: Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab, holder of a mediocre 2.0 rating, has Rep Mucarsel-Powell down by only 2 to Senator Scott, 45%-43%. If more accurate than The Tyson Group and chronic Republican underperformance holds, Scott could be in trouble. Trouble, trouble, let’s add a third: PolCom Lab’s statistical pool is smaller than that of Tyson, 1000+ to 770. Interpretation and adjustment becomes more important than pool size at some point, but I don’t remember enough sampling from statistics & probability to say what the crossover point might be. Florida’s Senate race will remain interesting so long as well-regarded pollsters find a close race.

Current Summary

Trundling through the races, here’s what strikes me as still in doubt, or might be in view of future events:

• In Arizona, with primaries still to come, the Republicans appear to be melting down in a race they hoped to win.
• Florida remains unclear.
• Maryland may be in doubt, or candidate Larry Hogan (R-MD) may have alienated voters on both sides of the political spectrum, rendering this blue state blue.
• Michigan, in Slotkin (D) and Rogers (R) may see a heavyweight slugout, despite the burning tire fire that is the Michigan Republican Party.
• In Nevada, Senator Rosen (D-NV) would seem to have the initial advantage over Republican nominee Sam Brown (R-NV), but there’s still time.
• The surprise prize may not go to Maryland, but to New Jersey, as incumbent and indicted-for-bribery Senator Menendez has changed his Party registration from Democratic Party to Independent and filed to run for reelection, challenging primary winners Rep Andy Kim (D-NJ) and Curtis Bashaw (R-NJ). Without his presence, I’d expect Rep Kim to win in a walk, but now the race is subject to public perceptions of Menendez’s indictment and trial. Awaiting polls now.
• While not a done deal, Senator Brown (D-OH) seems comfortably ahead.
• Ditto Senator Casey (D-PA).
• Ditto Senator Baldwin (D-WI). Praise be to the power of incumbency!
• 

  Governor Jim Justice (R-WV).

  West Virginia appears to be changing columns from Democrats to Republicans. However, this expectation could disappear if Senator Manchin, who previously announced his retirement and changed his Party registration from Democratic Party to Independent, changes his mind and files to run against Elliott (D-WV) and Justice (R-WV). It’s not clear to me what happens in a Jim Justice vs Joe Manchin showdown, although, based on visage, it’s Justice all the way.

Now that Hunter Biden has been found guilty of all charges in his gun charges federal case, it might seem that the yelling from the Republicans that the DoJ has been weaponized would settle down out of embarrassment.

I don’t expect it to.

The Republicans, along with being fresh out of embarrassment, have to keep up the screaming because that’s darn near all they have left. Mr Trump botched the immigration issue, so they cannot successfully use it against the Democrats, although Mr Trump, who appears to be demented, may try nonetheless. They opposed an infrastructure package so popular that they show up at ribbon cuttings in order to steal the thunder. They’ve lost the appellation Law & Order Party when Mr Trump was convicted.

For knowledgeable observers, it doesn’t come off so well.

So I expect we’ll be hearing how the conviction of Biden will be proof that the DoJ has been weaponized by Biden, and he’s thrown his own son under the bus in order to make it look like it’s not weaponized. That’s my guess, a Heads I win — tails you lose! scenario that is the height of dishonesty.

And this is all the result of a Party trying to follow the dictates of disgraced former Speaker and Rep Newt Gingrich (R-GA), that dictate being Never let the Democrats win. I was thinking about this today and realized that a guy who no longer has skin in the game can say any damn thing; watching the Party members in Congress hopping around like frogs in a pelican nest is, really, quite a sad thing to contemplate when you remember this is the US Congress and not a drunken frat party.

I do hope they come up with something more inventive than just This proves they weaponized the DoJ! I do hope that all the extremists get dumped out of the political system, like pus squeezed from an infection, this time around.

This is a disconcerting headline on CNN/Business:

Chiquita found liable for financing paramilitary group

Click on me?

For those not familiar with the name, Chiquita produces and distributes bananas, primarily from South America; they were once known as the United Fruit Co. In general, banana companies have been known to treat Central and South America as its own little plantation; the advent of leftist political movements and groups in those areas generated alarm concerning their profits.

So it appears Chiquita was willing to terrorize and kill those who threatened their profit.

At the moment, they appear to be liable for some fines, but the question of, well, humanity raises its head. Shouldn’t the folks who financed and enabled such actions be punished rather more severely? Admonishment is hardly enough.

I’m just rather gobsmacked that this happened. Yeah, yeah, I’m naive. But it’s true.

Shitpost:

You’ll want to go stick this in all the MAGA mistrial threads. 👇 pic.twitter.com/MiciimBIyW

— Rachel Bitecofer 🗽💡🔭🦆 (@RachelBitecofer) June 8, 2024

And why gatekeepers are actually valuable.

This is a bit mind, er, bending:

… gravitational lensing has been around for a while, but now it is about to enter a compelling new chapter. Scientists know it isn’t just light that can be lensed, but gravitational waves too. It is a mind-bending concept: ripples in space-time themselves being distorted by the curvature of space. It is also a deeply important phenomenon that could illuminate the secret interiors of neutron stars, settle a mystery about the power of dark energy and test gravity itself more keenly than ever. And here is the best part: we may be on the cusp of spotting our first lensed gravitational wave. [“We are about to hear echoes in the fabric of space for the first time,” Jonathan O’Callaghan, NewScientist (18 May 2024, paywall)]

Gravity waves are just barely within my comprehension, my intuition. I’m not sure if gravity lensing marches out into Here there be dragons territory, or if it still makes sense.

All out of fingers. But who is out of hope? Depends where you live, I suppose.

The Leading Issue, Ctd

Which is reproductive health issues, and who controls them — those who carry the burden, or the government. Here’s a link to the kickoff of this series.

Dartagnan of Daily Kos recently presented a wrapup of the point of my The Leading Issue – it’s gone from being the path up the mountain of social prestige for anti-abortionists, nearly all Republicans, to being a hand grenade glued to the hands of those resolutely against abortion; for Republicans, being anti-abortion is a litmus test – unless your name is Larry Hogan (R-MD), and then it’s a near thing.

In order to lure more women voters to their side of the ballot, Republican candidates have only a couple of choices, one being to use a fear-based approach, such as the Divine will hate you if you vote for the pro-choice candidate, or other attributes of the Democrats are so fearful that the Republicans are still the better choice.

This has been going on, successfully, for thirty and more years, because Roe v Wade was the Republicans’ shield. That’s right, not the Democrats’, but the Republicans’. They could fund raise against that SCOTUS decision and rail against it and do the dance of the anti-abortion poseur on it, knowing this Constitutional right would protect them. Voters could vote for candidates with anti-abortion positions without fear of losing that Right, because neither State legislature nor Congress could override the decision of SCOTUS.

But the Republicans allowed themselves to be fooled by their own arguments, self-righteousness, and arrogance. The Republican wink wink nudge nudge , that is, their secret knowledge of their shield, of thirty, forty, fifty years ago was an unstable point, meaning it either had to get out in public, because secrets swiftly are not secrets as more and more people learn them, or be forgotten.

The wink wink nudge nudge, it turns out, was apparently forgotten, and now a lot of earnest anti-abortion politicians and members of the base celebrated their perceived victory brought on by the Dobbs decision, thereby gluing hand grenades to their persons. Dobbs tells women that they are not permitted to safeguard their bodies against biological mistakes and other catastrophes, that they may have to sacrifice themselves to satisfy the dubious sensibilities of those who imagine they know the mind of God.

But the Republicans are starting to wake up, maybe too late, to the menace on their left, of how Dobbs has persuaded women voters to vote for their lives and for their own sensibilities, and some of these politicians are reacting. This has its own risks for these politicians, of course, as the anti-abortion segment of the Republicans may abandon all candidates who flip flop on the issue. Caveat emptor.

All from pointers in Dartagnan’s article, for which I am grateful.

• The Keystone’s Sean Kitchen reports Republican nominee David McCormick (R-PA) is trying to tread a middle ground on the abortion issue after being an extremist. Look for incumbent Senator Casey’s (D-PA) lead to increase.
• Ohio Republican nominee Bernie Moreno (R-OH) is suddenly flip flopping on the abortion issue as it turns out Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will not be easily beaten.
• Prospective nominee Sam Brown (R-NV), already potentially in deep trouble, is suddenly muffling his anti-abortion tune as Axios reports.
• Prospective nominee Kari Lake (R-AZ) was actually out in front on this one, beginning with the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision that a territorial law predating Arizona’s entry into the Union forbidding abortion was still applicable. No doubt the Republican Justices thought they were doing the right thing, but Lake nearly blew a gasket, even though she had, two years earlier, endorsed that law. She saw the wildfire that is abortion and began running away from it early. I doubt this’ll help her generally bedraggled reputation, which is so bad she may not even win the nomination, but at least, in this case, her political instincts are good.

Add in the previously reported Larry Hogan (R-MD) flip flop, and we can see this is getting serious.

But the Democrats have chosen to put pressure on the Republicans by emphasizing that certain right-wing elements do not approve even of even contraception.

Senate Republicans have blocked legislation designed to protect women’s access to contraception, arguing that the bill was just a political stunt as Democrats mount an election-year effort to put GOP senators on the record on reproductive rights issues, [AP]

For those voters who pay attention to politics, this will be significant. However, this is a shockingly small percentage. How many Americans are aware that access to contraception has been threatened by certain conservative elements?

The Democrats will have to work hard to get that message across. But if they succeed, they may win a few more seats in the House, and even save one in the Senate.

Steve Benen has an overview here. Professor Richardson adds one more succinct point:

All the Republicans running for reelection this year voted no: John Barrasso (R-WY), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Kevin Cramer (R-ND), Ted Cruz (R-TX), Deb Fischer (R-NE), Josh Hawley (R-MO), Pete Ricketts (R-NE), Rick Scott (R-FL), and Roger Wicker (R-MS).

So there is an element of vulnerability for the Republicans.

And In Other News…

• Senator Menendez, formerly (D-NJ) and now (I-NJ), has filed for reelection, complicating matters for New Jersey Democrats. Menendez has been indicted on charges of accepting bribes, which he strenuously denies.
• The New Jersey primaries took place on June 4th, and, as expected, Rep Andy Kim (D-NJ) won the nomination of the Democrats. He won with 316,302 votes and 75% of the total Democratic vote, which are respectable, if not overwhelming, numbers.The winner of the Republican nomination is Curtis Bashaw (R-NJ), a businessman who has some minor government experience. Bashaw won 115,000 votes out of a total of 239,000 cast in the Republican primary, or 48%, suggesting some dissatisfaction with Bashaw in Republican ranks. Notably, Trump endorsee Christine Serrano-Glassner took second placeand did not advance to the general election, possibly indicating waning Trump influence in New Jersey.

  If it were Kim and Bashaw only, I’d look at these numbers and give it to Kim, but Senator Menendez filing to run as an independent may considerably complicate the calculus.

• Also on June 4th Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) and businessman Tim Sheehy (R-MT) advanced to the general election via their respective primaries in Montana.

  Senator Tester advanced with 56,000+ votes, or 97% of the Democratic primary votes.  Sheehy also gained 56,000+ votes, or nearly 74% of the Republican primary votes.

  Look for a tight race: Sheehy, a businessman, will flash his bona fides, while trying to pivot his position on abortion; Tester will talk about extremist Republican positions on abortion while stressing his experience and ties to the people of Montana.

• In Ohio, National Public Affairs, of unknown rating, gives incumbent Senator Brown (D-OH) an 8 point lead over challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH?), 54%-46%.
• YouGov (2.9) performed a series of surveys pitting Senator Warren (D-MA) against a number of possible Republican nominees. Her smallest margin? +23 points. Massachusetts has been known to surprise in the past, if my reader remembers Senator Warren’s predecessor Senator Brown (R-MA), but it appears unlikely this year.
• Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research (2.0) suggests that probable Michigan nominees Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and Mike Rogers (R-MI) are essentially tied at around 41% to each. Rogers shouldn’t relax, as the recent history of polling and special elections indicates a chronic undercount of Democratic votes, suggesting Slotkin may lead by 2-4 points. Mitchell Research (2.0) is giving Slotkin exactly that, a 3 point lead at 36%-33%, which suggests undecideds are plentiful. Interestingly, in primary polling the same pollster gives Rogers a lead over former Rep Justin Amash (R-MI) of 20 points, but the numbers are 28%-8%! Are Michigan Republicans that dissatisfied? Actually, given recent news of the disaster that is the Michigan Republican Party, that may – and should be – true. Is Rogers in unknown trouble? The primary is not until August 6th, not leaving a lot of time to remedy matters.
• Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research has Senator Casey (D-PA) with a 7 point lead, 49%-42%, over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?) in Pennsylvania., which is congruent with the earlier poll by an inferior pollster that gave Casey an 8 point lead.
• Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research measures Senator Baldwin (D-WI) with a lead of 8 points, 47%-39%, over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?) in Wisconsin. There’s definitely a trend of the businessman cum newbie Senate politician not doing well in early polling.
• In more primary polling, three polls have looked at the Nevada Republican Senate primary in the last month. Two give Scott Brown (R-NV), thought to be the apparent nominee, a 38 point lead over Jeffrey Ross Gunter, while one gives Gunter a one point lead. The two pollsters finding in Brown’s favor are Tarrance Group (1.6) and Noble Predictive Insights (2.4). The latter pollster is Kaplan Strategies (2.0). I’m left wondering which is the prostitute pollster.
• Kaplan Strategies (2.0) is giving Governor Jim Justice (R-WV) a 33 point lead, 60%-27%, over former Mayor Glenn Elliott (D-WV) in the West Virginia contest for retiring Senator Joe Manchin’s (was D-WV, now I-WV) seat. Unless something interesting happens, I shan’t mention this race again.

Erick Erickson has been given the assignment of keeping his herd together, so he’s trying to inspire loathing and disdain for President Biden:

Today, he will announce executive action to secure the southern border. It is something he could have done three years ago. He is only doing it now because he is being led by the polls instead of leading.

Immigration and border security are major issues. For the last few months, they have been the top issues for Americans. Biden, acting now, opens himself to criticism for not acting soon.

But Biden is acting at this particular moment because he does not want to secure the border. By waiting until this moment and by broadcasting what he will do, he has given progressive activists enough time to prepare their lawsuits and run to court to enjoin his actions. A progressive judge in California will probably halt the executive order. Biden will try to look tough while also ensuring he can blame the courts for not letting him have his way. Unlike student loans, he will not try to find his way around this injunction.

This is all theater.

And, yes, it is theater – but, as Senator Schumer (D-NY) has hammered home, of a different sort. President Biden requested support from Congress on the matter, and Senator Lankford (R-OK) took the lead on hammering out a bill that most agreed imposed some of the toughest immigration measures in decades, but eventually he had some bipartisan support. Enough, he and Minority Leader Senator McConnell (R-KY) thought, to send it through to the House.

Then Mr. Trump, thinking he scented an opportunity, ordered his Senate allies to kill the bill. Reportedly, he’ll be using the border issue in his Presidential campaign.

And so President Biden did not get the needed Congressional support. After sensibly waiting for it, he’s forced to use a possibly illegal executive order.

I think Mr. Trump has, once again, miscalculated. With careful messaging, the immigration issue, much like the Republican’s loss of the Rule of Law Party appellation with the convictions of Mr. Trump, and the consequent attacks on law enforcement and the judiciary by his minions both in and out of Congress – a major loss of prestige for the Republican Party, worthy of the label fiasco – can become a Democratic advantage, by contrasting President Biden’s efforts to keep within the law while protecting the Nation, vs Mr. Trump’s heedless use of the issue to his own ends.

Erickson supports someone whose conception of ethics and morality centers around how he can use them to manipulate others to his own end.

This is what Erickson has been reduced to. Toxic team culture, appropriated by an ethically and morally challenged individual who charms the base into supporting him, is a disaster for the nation and for Erickson.

Mephitic:

smelling very bad:

• The creatures are believed to live in the mephitic swamps of the region.
• The mephitic fumes from the machine made their throats burn. [Cambridge Dictionary]

Some definitions suggested noxiousness unto death. Noted in “Russian arms dealer tells Alex Jones the US needs a new J6 insurrection to prevent nuclear war,” TheCriticalMind, Daily Kos:

Alex Jones interviewed [Russian arms dealer Viktor] Bout on his InfoWars show. The topic was Bout’s support for Trump and his promotion of a bigger Jan 6 insurrection. It beggars belief. Lord Haw Haw is now broadcasting from inside the house. The mephitic Jones claims he is a patriot. Bullshit. He is an enemy of America and Americans. Meanwhile, the MAGAs who think Jones is on to something are lost to reason.

Ever wonder if Dr. Fauci, our health leader during the Covid-19 pandemic, was, indeed, an evil mastermind out to make everyone wear a mask because, ah, it makes us look odd? WaPo’s Dana Milbank observes that the GOP mission to expose the retired doctor and NIH leader seems to have aborted:

Documents and testimony the panel gathered over 18 months, while finding misbehavior by a grant recipient and by an adviser to Fauci, produced nothing to substantiate these wild allegations. The United States did not fund research that created the pathogen. Fauci didn’t lie about the U.S. role in “gain of function” research at the laboratory in Wuhan, China. He didn’t try to suppress the lab leak theory, or bribe people to reject it. He didn’t get rich off the pandemic, either — although he testified that he earned about $120 a year from an antibody he developed years ago.

The gibbering madness exhibited by the GOP House members in the face of reason and facts can lead to a number of conclusions. My favorite is the failure of the news gathering organizations to survive as independent organizations has been a disaster for both citizens and Congress. A trustworthy, local news source that delivers the nonsense in which these members of Congress indulge, both before and after an election, should result in their elimination in competitive elections; weak news sources, both quality and in terms of being easily swayed by blandishments, mislead their audience to the detriment of voters and Congress.

In moderation, it brings roses. Bushes. Whatever. These blind shots came out rather lovely.

NOTE: This entry appears to have been inserted into the blog on May 1, so I’m republishing it. My apologies.

A fifth installment? Is this then considered a success? I doubt it.

The Trump Problem

The Republican Party has, as a whole, the problem of the former President Trump on their hands. Convicted of 34 felony counts falsifying business records, he is now a convicted criminal. His allies’, or perhaps more accurately minions‘, support of him is now a potential anchor around their necks.

And many of them added more and more cables to that anchor over the last weeks as they went to New York City and pronounced Trump innocent, thus discrediting themselves when the jury came back with a guilty verdict, and did so with notable speed.

Some Members of Congress don’t care. Representing safe districts or states, they only worry, or worried, about being primaried by challengers more extreme than themselves.

But for others, their alliance with someone who committed crimes in order to be elected seven years ago is a major problem for independent and moderate conservative voters, who will refuse to vote for both Trump and his allies, despite Democratic flaws.

It all depends on Democratic messaging. I expect it’ll be expertly handled.

And if Trump continues to shriek about rigged trials and claim there is evidence of his innocence that was not submitted at the trial, it only gets worse for him. His claim that he was not permitted to bring those witnesses forth is ludicrous to all but the most devoted MAGA-head.

Candidate Quality

Recognition that candidate quality matters to independent voters must be an irritating surprise for some ambitious would-be candidates, but it’s a necessity in today’s world of aggressive national adversaries and nuclear weapons. The Republican Senate Election debacle of 2022 occurred under the leadership of Senator Rick Scott (R-FL), but whether it’s because the Republicans see his leadership as a joke, or because he’s running for reelection this year, he’s been replaced with Senator Steve Daines (R-MT), who appears to be more serious about the job than Senator Scott. The Republican pundit Erick Erickson, despite his desperation to keep the herd together, seems to get it:

And winning the election means picking real candidates who are not going to alienate middle class, independent voters *cough* Kari Lake *cough*. Frankly, in 2022, the GOP nominated clunker candidates who scratched itches, but made independent voters squeamish. In other words, the right’s reaction to the left’s actions was to nominate candidates who could “fight,” but lost all the fights.

To my mind, in 2020 and 2022 the political far-right nominated power and position hungry candidates, ideologues who were ideologues because it gave them social prestige, and theocrats who either passionately believe they were doing God’s will, or were in it for the social prestige thing.

Erickson’s problem is that he’s looking for candidates who keep him happy, keeping in mind he’s a far-right wing extremist, while making independents happy as well, and that’s a really big stretch. Worse, the ideologically pure, right or left, are rarely competent politicians in the American mold. They may fit right in with the murderous cultures of V. Lenin or F. Franco, but being humble rather than ambitious and arrogant as required by many in America? Hard to do for them. After all, God’s on their side.

Here’s a short article on the aforementioned Senator Daines:

An early Trump supporter, Daines worked with the former president to secure his endorsement of [“winsome candidates”]. Trump endorsed Gov. Jim Justice over Rep. Alex Mooney in West Virginia, and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy over Rep. Matt Rosendale in Montana, as well as former representative Mike Rogers in Michigan, David McCormick in Pennsylvania (whom he had passed over for Mehmet Oz in 2022) and businessman Eric Hovde in Wisconsin.

For Daines, a winsome candidate has independent voter appeal, a laudable and important goal. Does Daines have the judgment and drive to push his selections over the finish line? I see some problems.

1. Daines, a former Proctor & Gamble business exec, appears to like fellow business execs (McCormick, Justice, Hovde) and ideologues (Rogers, Sheehy – the latter, a naif, burdened with a scandal already). I expect former Governor Justice to become Senator Justice (R-WV), but I see McCormick losing by two or more points to Senator Casey (D-PA), Senator Tester (D-MT) beating Sheehy by three points or so in Montana, and Hovde to be slapped down, hard, by Senator Baldwin (D-WI). Only Rogers has experience in government at the Congressional level, and even he has a reputation as an ideologue. I don’t know if Rogers can win or not, assuming he even wins his primary. Daines picks appear to fall into two categories becoming increasingly unpopular with independents.
2. Daines may be picking those he’s most comfortable with, and not evaluating them for legislative competence. That’s an amateur mistake.
3. And who interviewed Daines? Marc Thiessen, one of the WaPo conservative opinion writers who doesn’t see his job as being hard-hitting when writing of conservatives. I generally don’t read him because his evaluations are damn silly, such as Trump being the most honest politician out there, and if you do, don’t take his Expecting great things approach to heart. From what little I’ve read, he’s overly optimistic about conservative candidates.

Joan McCarter of Daily Kos believes GOP Senate candidates are, once again, of dubious quality.

Polling Pitfalls

Mercy Ormont on Daily Kos has a meditation on good pollsters and bad pollsters these days.

And In Senate Campaign News

• Apparently the selection of Royce White (no relation) as the GOP endorsee for the GOP’s nomination for the Minnesota Senate seat of Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) has stimulated reports from several outlets on his past behavior as a candidate. If you’re interested, Aldous J Pennyfarthing on Daily Kos has a schadenfreude-filled summary. The primary is still to come.
• Nevada’s Senator Rosen (D-NV) has some more encouragement in what was considered a competitive State as The Tyson Group has given her a startling 14 point lead over leading Republican candidate for nomination Sam Brown (R-NV), 47%-33%. However, this pollster’s rating is only 1.2 out of 3, perhaps due to its use of online participants, so Democrats shouldn’t become too excited. Indeed, perhaps I shouldn’t cite such pollsters.
• NBC News reports that the situation in New Jersey could be a lot more complicated than expected for the Democrats:
  

  Indicted Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., has collected the necessary signatures to run for re-election as an independent, five people familiar with the matter said.

  Menendez needs 800 signatures by Tuesday to gain ballot access in November and hopes to reach closer to 10,000 signatures by then, said three sources with knowledge of his plans.

  One of the sources, who previously worked for Menendez, said Menendez, who is on trial on federal bribery charges, wants the number of signatures to be a “statement” in and of itself, “to show the level of support he still has.”

  Menendez’s pride could be the downfall of the Democrats’ dreams of retaining control of the Senate. New Jersey may suddenly be on the hot list.

• In Maryland the former Governor and Republican candidate for the open Senate seat Larry Hogan (R-MD), does the respectable thing when his Party leader is convicted on all 34 charges of felony business record falsification – he issues a statement reminding folks to act in a sober, serious manner:
  

  Regardless of the result, I urge all Americans to respect the verdict and the legal process. At this dangerously divided moment in our history, all leaders—regardless of party—must not pour fuel on the fire with more toxic partisanship. We must reaffirm what has made this nation great: the rule of law.

  In response, he’s been smacked in the metaphorical teeth by what passes for the Republican Party leadership these days. Hogan is attempting to rally the traditional Republican Party that understood what it meant to be an American political party, but it’s not at all clear that he’ll be successful. In some ways, it would be very healthy for the United States if he were to win. But there’s probably more benefit in Democratic candidate Alsobrooks winning. Maryland may be coming back off the hot list, but Hogan gets to join the list of genuine American political heroes, while most of the rest of the current Republican Party leadership will not be on that list. Only those who testified to the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack would be eligible for the list, in my mind, such as former White House staffer Cassidy Hutchinson.

• An early May poll that escaped my attention gives incumbent Senator Casey (D-PA) of Pennsylvania an 8 point lead, 49%-41%, over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). The pollster is GS Strategy Group, with a mediocre rating of 1.5.
• A mid-May poll in Washington gives Senator Cantwell (D-WA) a 9 point lead, 39%-30%, over the guy who they must consider the leading challenger, Raul Garcia (R-WA). Mr. Garcia has little experience in electoral politics. I’m sure Cantwell would like to be closer to the magic number of 50%, but she has a substantial lead. The pollster is Elway Research (1.9). The jungle primary is still to come in August.
• 

  Governor Jim Justice (R-WV). Source: Wikipedia.

  Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is now (I-WV). Might he be considering rescinding his retirement announcement and take on Republican West Virginia heavyweight Governor Jim Justice (R-WV) and relative unknown Glenn Elliott (D-WV)? In some ways, it feels like West Virginia is a businessman’s political playground, as Manchin, Justice, and Don Blankenship (D-WV) are all businessmen who’ve been involved in this Senate race. Could there be personal animosity animating some of these maneuverings? This is all speculation, but if Manchin does enter the race, the tug of war between the two political titans could allow Elliott to win. West Virginia doesn’t go on the hot list unless Manchin decides he wants to retain his Senate seat.

  By the way, the picture on the right of Governor Justice is just the sort of visage I’d rather not face for a job interview.

• In Wisconsin, GS Strategy Group (1.5) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 12 point lead, 49%-37%, over Eric Hovde. If a more respectable pollster gives similar numbers, I suspect the Republicans will write Hovde and Wisconsin off.Incidentally, Mr. Hovde is another businessman. Are the Republicans becoming the Party of the Businessman? They have a long association with Big Business, to use the old terminology, but usually as representatives of Big Business, not as what feels like a private club devoted to vanity  political runs. But with Hovde in WI, Scott in FL, Daines in MT, McCormick in PA, Justice, Manchin, and Blankenship (a former and, I suspect, future Republican) in WV, and no doubt a few others that slipped my notice or mind, well, that’s a lot of ridiculously rich businessmen seeking to buy themselves a Senate seat.Heck, it feels quite Roman. Buyers beware.