Monthly Archives: June 2024

So it’s four years old. It still makes me laugh.

Tenebrism:

If we are looking for a tenebrism art definition, we could say that tenebrism is a painting technique that uses deep darkness to generate a spotlight effect around well-lit objects. Tenebrism is widely seen in Italian and Spanish baroque works and is closely connected to the chiaroscuro artistic method, which is based on the equally stark juxtaposition of light and dark. [Art In Context]

Noted in “A rare U.S. Caravaggio masterpiece shows how a murderer painted death,” Sebastian Smee, WaPo:

So the whole picture is involving. But what I am repeatedly drawn to is not the baroque space or Caravaggio’s tenebrism (his brilliant manipulation of pockets of lights within enveloping darkness). It’s not the operatic drama of the two elevated bodies, one curving slackly to the right, the other listing leftward, like heavy, three-day-old tulips in a vase.

I did not watch the Presidential debate this week, but I’ve seen a few clips. All of those involving President Biden made me wince, but not because his responses suggested incompetence. Instead, it evoked the empathetic response of I’ve had bad head colds. too.

But when Mr. Trump appeared, what struck me was how everything he said was a lie, an unearned boast, a claim shorn of important context, and from what I’ve heard and read, that applied to all he said.

It appears to me that Mr. Trump is the stricken one here. It’s becoming apparent that Mr. Trump has completely lost the capability to operate with truth. His connection with reality, and consequently America, is gone; his driving narcissism and, possibly, religious passion, has caused him to enter a terminal tail-spin that should probably place him in a mental hospital for his own safety.

Will everyone figure this out? I figure the answer to that is No, a lot of pundits, driven by money and employer expectation, will call for Biden to retire, probably in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris. And there’s quite a few already doing so, using obviously cute approaches to signal their employers that they’re doing their jobs.

Keep your mind and eyes open, folks, and watch how the polls come out – and how those pollsters rate.

Kiyah Willis on Journal of Free Black Thought has an important observation she makes off the cuff:

But this led to a moral crisis. What I believed to be moral and what I believed to be true were at odds. And it wasn’t just this dilemma—I’d discovered a serious flaw in my entire path of thinking, a deeper philosophical issue. Were reality and morality incompatible? Surely, that couldn’t be right.

Morality, like a lot of human activities, evolves, and evolution is a messy, and sometimes unsuccessful, business. If your morality extinguishes your culture, your species, well, was your morality, ah, moral? Can a lion successfully be vegetarian?

It’s a big country, even when counting Senators.

• In Montana, Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights has been working hard, and announced completion of the first step of its purpose, which is to safeguard abortion rights.
  

  The group behind Constitutional Initiative 128, Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights, said in a Friday press conference that it had collected more than 117,000 signatures since early April, about 57,000 more than the necessary 60,359. [Montana Free Press]

  This may turn out to be significant for Senator Tester (D-MT), who is engaged in a currently close re-election contest with Tim Sheehy (R-MT). The opportunity to vote for protection of abortion rights may draw out otherwise uninterested voters, and Tester’s alignment with abortion rights will attract those voters. Of course, the same reasoning may apply to Mr. Sheehy, but the usual thinking is that anti-abortion voters have been fully energized prior to the Dobbs decision, but Dobbs energized previously dormant pro-choice voters. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/(no partner, just to emphasize) (1.7, just as when it collaborates with Democrat-aligned Impact Research), a Republican pollster, measures Montana’s Senator Tester (D-MT) and challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT) as even at 48% apiece. Seeing as the sponsor is Republican-aligned More Jobs, Less Government, I suspect Senator Tester is more likely ahead than behind. However, Fabrizio, et al, claims that adding in third party candidates and Tester loses five points, while Sheehy only loses two. Hmmmmmm.

• With the primaries still to come in Missouri, Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) has a comfortable 9 point lead, 47%-38%, over prospective Democratic nominee Lucas Kunce (D-MO), according to Emerson College Polling (FiveThirtyEight pollster rating of 2.9/3). Hawley’s previous victory in 2018 was by nearly six points over incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO).
• Prospective nominee Kari Lake (R-AZ) for the Arizona Senate seat finally has a good polling result, down only 1 to Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), 39%-38%. Unfortunately for Lake, the pollster is North Star Opinion Research, owner of a mediocre 1.2 rating, and the sponsor of the poll is American Greatness, a pro-Trump organization. I don’t take this one seriously, except to note that it’s probably trying to encourage conservative Arizonans to get out and vote in the primary, and encourage sheep-like behavior in independents in the general election.
• Public Policy Polling (1.4) gives Maryland Democrat Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) an 8 point lead, 48%-40%, over former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD), and that expands to 11 points if minor-party candidates are included. Public Policy Polling’s rating is very mediocre, though.
• Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (1.7), which is a pair of cooperating pollsters with Republican and Democratic links, respectively, tells the AARP that Senator Rosen (D-NV) of Nevada leads Republican candidate Sam Brown (R-NV) by five points, 47%-42%. These pollsters have worked together before, but a 1.7 suggests they are not balancing out as some might hope.
• Utah had its primaries last Tuesday, resulting in the Republicans selecting Rep John Curtis (R-UT) and the Democrats selecting Caroline Gleich (D-UT). Well, to be precise, Gleich’s primary was cancelled, as she was the only candidate for the Democrats in the primary, having won Party endorsement at their convention. However, another Democrat, Laird Hamblin (D-UT), is in the general election as a write-in, which may split the vote. Gleich also has no relevant experience, at least nothing is listed on Ballotpedia. It seems the Democrats are ill-organized in Utah.And for those who like a little schadenfreude in their breakfast cereal, Rep Curtis was not Mr Trump’s endorsee in this race, defeating that candidate by 20+ points. While it’s true that Rep Curtis garnered less than 52% of the Republican primary vote, the Utah Republicans don’t seem to be as deeply infected by pouty right wing fourth-raters as some States, and I expect them to pull together for an easy victory over Ms Gleich. This despite Rep Curtis being the replacement for Rep Chaffetz (R-UT), who resigned after various exhibitions of deep silliness a few years back. Updates on the Utah Senate race will only occur if something surprises me.
• In Texas Rep Allred’s (D-TX) Senate campaign finally received some good news as the UT Tyler Center for Opinion Research (1.7) suggests Senator Cruz’s (R-TX) lead is only three points, 45%-42%. But that rating of 1.7 does not inspire confidence in the accuracy of the poll. Its lack of congruency with the YouGov poll back a week or two, in which Cruz held an 11 point lead, also seems dismal. Still, a come from behind victory is often accompanied by a breakout point in which the leader’s margin is suddenly cut.
• Top rated Marquette University Law School (3.0) gives Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a five point lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 52%-47%. Republican hopes may not be fading in Wisconsin, but Hovde does need another breakthrough, and if he’s the subject of chronic Republican underperformance, his troubles may be deeper than he realizes.
• The Virginia primary, skipped for the Democrats as Senator Kaine (D-VA) had no opponents, yielded Hung Cao (R-VA) as the Republican nominee for the Senate. He won more than 64% of the primary vote, but has little obvious relevant experience. Whether that matters in Virginia, which currently has a Republican governor, is an open question.
• And North Dakota has a poll result: Senator Cramer (R-ND) 65%, Katrina Christiansen (D-ND) 28%, or a 37 point lead for the incumbent Senator. And, yes, Public Opinion Strategies has a mediocre 1.7 rating, and the sponsor of the poll, Brighter Future Alliance, sure looks Republican-aligned, but this is North Dakota. Even if the Senator’s lead is considerably less in reality, it’ll remain a positive lead, as no one really says.

Long time readers know of my ill-considered inclination to compare the current state of the United States to the decay of the Roman Empire in terms of overpopulation and the deadly infighting experienced in Rome after the destruction of Gaul, but I think this is getting a bit ridiculous:

I just mentioned Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT) just last week, the company behind Truth Social. Today, in the absence of substantive news, it looks like someone is trying to prop the DJT stock up:

Tomorrow DJT may go crashing back down. But it’s interesting to view this through a geopolitical lens, as it indicates to me that, given Mr Trump cannot yet sell his portion of DJT, and he may be having hysterics over its drop in value, someone may be trying to calm Mr. Trump down.

My bet is that it’s President Putin, but with a guy like Mr Trump and his evident willingness to sell to anyone with cash – and disregard the folks lacking cash – there are a lot of potential buyers, such as Mohammed bin Salman (de facto king of Saudi Arabia and accused murderer), etc.

This is an entertainment and entertaining stock, I’ll tell you.

This is what happens when your brain is addicted to logic.

In Mr. Holmes (2015), the famed private detective and logician is facing twin endings, of his career and his life, and the painful parallels of the two are examined in some detail.

And that’s about it.

It’s nicely acted and, overall, well done. But I never became excited by it. I mean, it’s been like a month since I saw it, and I’ve had no motivation to write this review.

So have at it. Perhaps it’ll appeal to you more than it did to me.

Remember Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT)? Perhaps you even bought some stock to show you’re a part of the Trump group? How’s that working out for you? Here’s the six month chart for today from yahoo! finance:

That feeling when you realize your entire investment has gone ker-plunk.

This is an object lesson in what happens when a stock is evaluated on something other than its business fundamentals, in a nutshell. Will it recover? I doubt it. Their product offerings are paltry, and while lying comes naturally to Mr. Trump, I’m sure the other executives are well aware that freely wagging their tongues over corporate fantasies lacking a connection to reality could result in prison time if a shareholder, having subsequently lost their investment as DJT implodes, becomes irate and files a complaint with the SEC.

But, as a colleague of mine once observed, most dying stocks do enjoy dead cat bounces.

I knew about this. I wrote about it during the Obama Administration.

And, yet, I admit that I forgot about this and plum didn’t understand why Biden was permitting, in the technical sense, so much oil drilling and even releasing oil from the strategic reserves.

But Daily Kos‘ Mark Sumner reminds me:

In the last two years, President Joe Biden grabbed the oil markets by the throat and shook them. He’s not just lowered the price that Americans are paying for gas as they head out on summer vacation, he has sent a shockwave of fear through OPEC leaders like Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The urge to simplify foreign situations is understandable, but demands that fossil fuel pumping cease has the unfortunate – such a neutral word for such a complicated and dangerous situation – effect of strengthening the hand of genocidal maniac President Vladimir Putin, because Russia’s primary source of foreign revenue is fossil fuels. Biden better enabling fossil fuels lowers prices, meaning Putin’s revenue is lowered.

Meaning the Russians have a harder time buying the foreign parts required to build the weapons they use to kill and subjugate Ukrainians in Putin’s War. For climate activists, such as those who painted Stonehenge orange a couple of days ago while demanding we stop pumping fossil fuels, this point may not be obvious, but it’s something to bear in mind. Precise thinking, in short supply these days, is deeply important. How so here?

It’s all a web, and one action over here may have an unexpected reaction over there. Should we stop pumping fossil fuels? Not yet, sad to say. The lower the supply, the more everyone who refuses to go along with the other side of the equation – which is, stop using fossil fuels! – is willing to pay for them. And that is how Putin increases his war machine.

The proper side of the equation is the demand side, not the supply side. Reducing supply leads to unwanted consequences.

Last week, this week.

Foraging After Foregone News

• File under unsurprising: In California, Rep Schiff (D-CA) leads former MLB star Steve Garvey (R-CA) by 25 points, 62%-37%, according to Public Policy Institute of California (2.5/3 stars). This might be a bit much, as it’s a substantial step up from the previous poll in February by University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (also 2.5) that gave Schiff only a 14 point lead. But this is California, either lead is probably insurmountable. I shan’t mention this race again unless something interesting happens.
• So something interesting did happen with regards to the West Virginia race, and it’s not (yet) Senator Manchin (I-WV) re-entering the race after initially retiring. Instead, it’s me remembering that the 33 point lead of Governor Justice (R-WV) over former Mayor Elliott (D-WV) was measured by none other than Kaplan Strategies. They are the pollsters who gave Nevada Republican Senate nominee candidate Jeffrey Gunter, the sponsor of the particular poll, a 1 point lead, while other pollsters gave Sam Brown a 38 point lead; Brown won by 40+ points. Now, no sponsor is listed for the West Virginia poll, so maybe the results were not, ummmm, wildly inaccurate, but as Kaplan is now a suspect name, I think it’s safe to think that Justice’s real lead may be closer to 15 points, or even smaller. And that makes Manchin’s potential decision to step into this race even more interesting for Mr. Elliott.
• Steve Benen’s report on the hypocrisy of Senator Scott (R-FL) concerning IVF sparks some thoughts. Besides leaving an opening for Democratic challenger Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in this year’s Florida Senator race, I have to wonder if we can see such, shall we call it flexible morality, applying to all Republican candidates, or only to those who’ve climbed the corporate ladder? I must say that, without formally surveying the Republican Senatorial candidates, there are an awful lot of corporate types, rather than the preferable experienced governmental types.
• Pre-primary, Minnesota’s Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) has 14 and 15 point leads over the two top candidates for the Republican nomination, Joe Fraser (R-MN) and Royce White (R-MN), according to SurveyUSA (2.8). I’m surprised it’s this close, as Klobuchar won in 2018 by 24 points and in 2012 by 35 points, and will pay more attention to this race. Another poll, by top pollster Emerson College (2.9), gives Klobuchar an 11 point lead over Royce White, 48%-37%, which must also be disappointing.
• Public Opinion Strategies (1.7), sponsored by the NRSC, has Senator Tester (D-MT) even with challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT). A poll by a mediocre pollster, sponsored by a partisan organization, finding the candidates tied, suggests Tester may actually be ahead.
• Progressives may believe that Senator Cruz (R-TX) is vulnerable, but so far the pollsters in Texas don’t agree, as top pollster YouGov (2.9) gives Cruz an 11 point lead over challenger Rep Allred (D-TX), 45%-34%. Perhaps the Senator’s rebrand, reported by The Texas Tribune, is working; or it may be Rep Allred’s message is not getting out: 41% either expressed no opinion (17%) or a neutral view (24%) of him when asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the Democratic congressman from Dallas …
• Public Policy Polling (1.4) is giving New Mexico’s Senator Heinrich (D-NM) a 7 point lead, 47%-40%, over challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM) in the first poll since the New Mexico primaries. Seeing as Heinrich won in 2018 by 24 points, this result may be a trifle alarming for Democrats, but Domenici is the daughter of former New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM), and so, at least for older voters, it’s a familiar name. It may not be relevant, but Heinrich won in 2012 by 5+ points. In other news, Axios reports that Republicans view this as a sleeper race: With her name ID and personal wealth, national Republicans see the race as a sleeper that may also force Democrats to spend resources defending what is considered a safe seat.
• In contrast with YouGov’s (2.9) award of a 13 point lead to Rep Gallego (D-AZ) over Kari Lake (R-AZ) in the race for the open Senate seat in contested Arizona, Emerson College (also 2.9) gives Gallego a mere 5 point lead, 45%-41%.
• With primaries still to come, Michigan prospective nominees Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leads hard liner former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI) by 5 points, 43%-39%, according to Emerson College (2.9). While folks who demand instant results from the Democrats may be discontented, I doubt they’ll vote for Rogers in sufficient numbers to beat Slotkin absent a black swan event.
• In the first poll in Nevada since their primaries, Emerson College (2.9) gives Senator Rosen (D-NV) a big 12 point lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV), 50%-38%. For locally confident Republicans that must have come as quite a shock.
• Emerson College (2.9) gives Pennsylvania Senator Casey (D-PA) a 6 point lead over David McCormick (R-PA?), 47%-41%. This is congruent with previous Pennsylvania polls and suggests Mr McCormick has a steep mountain to climb.
• And in Wisconsin, Emerson College (2.9) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 3 point lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 46%-44%. A jitter in the data stream or is Baldwin losing steam? Only time will tell, and it’s notoriously close-mouthed.
• Maryland’s popular former governor and Senate candidate Larry Hogan (R-MD) has been endorsed by Mr. Trump, and wants to take a shower to wash off the stench, apparently:

  “Well, I just said I didn’t … I didn’t seek it, I didn’t wanna have it, and I have no interest in it. It’s not something we’re gonna be promoting, that’s for sure,” Hogan, a common Trump critic, said in an interview with D.C.-area radio station WTOP when asked if he rejects the endorsement.

And now off to prepare for tomorrow’s flooding in Minnesota. Is caviar inappropriate?

Evapotranspirate:

Evapotranspiration is the sum of all processes by which water moves from the land surface to the atmosphere via evaporation and transpiration. [USGS]

Noted in “Embrace wooden buildings for the sake of your health and the planet’s,” Graham Lawton, NewScientist (8 June 2024, paywall):

A standard building has high “thermal inertia”, meaning it takes a lot of time and energy to warm up and cool down. But in a [cross-laminated timber, or CLT, ] building, the moment you start the heating, you start to feel the warmth in the atmosphere, says Petit. Cooling is less straightforward, but at Marcadet, this is aided by the plants and trees in the building’s rooftop garden. When it is hot, these evapotranspirate water from the soil and hence draw out heat from the rooms below.

Your Old Uncle laughing at a sex joke. That’ll teach you to tell your elders dirty jokes rather than engage in political discussions that result in mutual evisceration. At least he’s not squirting milk out his nose.

Godzilla Minus One (2023) is the series member – #37, according to Wikipedia – that finally takes the big step up. This is not a vague plot concerning a clutch of monsters fighting each other for obscure reasons. In this one, someone takes center stage and makes it stick. Pilot and survivor of World War II Kōichi Shikishima is burdened with a peculiarly Japanese version of survivor’s guilt. He’s looking for redemption in the remains of a devastated Tokyo, but he’s wracked with nightmares of a monster that he encountered during the war. And then, years later, the monster appears again, wrecking shipping on its way to Tokyo.

In response, Japanese citizens form a self-defense group and recruit Kōichi to man their lone plane, which will be used as a lure to bring the monster to a designated location where the scientists think they can destroy the monster. Their plane is a neglected, experimental plane that can only be brought into service by a man from Kōichi’s past, a man who knows his terrible secret.

And loathes him.

Well, the rest would be spoilers. But it should be clear to the experienced Godzilla fan that this is more of a plot than in any other entry in the canon; I can’t speak for other media.

But is it done well?

For the most part, yes, but it’s not perfect. Some of it may be simply my American eyes not interpreting the details properly in the context of Japanese society. For example, the rage of Kōichi at himself is expressed in such a way as to be reminiscent of the old movies, and I never much cared for that single dimensional approach, even if it is realistic.

Godzilla itself was also disturbingly mechanistic. Perhaps this is an allusion to other episodes that have suggested that his power source is actually a nuclear power plant. Or maybe the storytellers ran out of budget. But that is a little hard to believe, as other special effects are simply spectacular; indeed, the movie won an Oscar for special effects.

In terms of plot, the movie has some questionable points. For example, the emphasis on this being a privately run self-defense force was not believable. It seems highly unlikely that former Japanese Navy destroyers, even disarmed, would be given to such a group. Defense of the homeland is the business of government, not a bunch of World War II veterans. Another element, missing from all Godzilla movies, is Where is the Emperor? One would think a Divine, even a discredited Divine, would be called upon to lead the defense, but, as in all Godzilla movies, there’s no mention of the Emperor. And, finally, the wrap up is too soft, too unbelievable. It may have a symbolic point, but I couldn’t help but think there’s rarely a clean ending to any really good story, and this ending must have been created by Mr. Clean.

But there is one more element that is often not considered, and that’s the context. For the casual audience, this is a monster movie, but for the dedicated Godzilla fan, the context of actors in rubber suits and bad acting and dubious plots give this movie a bit of an extra ooomph, a transformation from a generally puzzling collection of films, or worse too-explicit (yes, yes, the point to this one is nuclear power is bad! I figured that out, thank you!), to a movie that explores the personal costs of a mere man becoming a hero, no matter how flawed in character or in story.

This is the best installment in the series, although I haven’t seen Godzilla x Kong (2024), and it’s almost worth a Recommended rating. If you haven’t seen it and have an inclination to see it, satisfy that inclination.

Macroevolutionary ratchet:

The team found some other evolutionary surprises as well. First, saber-toothed species seemed to show faster changes to skull and jaw shapes earlier in their evolutionary history than species with shorter canines — essentially a “recipe” for evolving into saber-toothed feline-like predators, Chatar said in a statement.

The research group also hypothesizes that the “over-specialization” of saber teeth more rapidly led groups with that feature to extinction.

This theory is called a macroevolutionary ratchet. “This phenomenon has been proposed as a potential driver of decline, wherein evolution favors the loss of early generalized forms, leading to the emergence of more specialized, yet more vulnerable, forms later in the history of the lineage,” Chatar says. [“Saber Teeth are as Mysterious Evolutionarily as They are Iconic Visually,” Paul Smaglik, Discover (paywall)]

I wonder if cheetahs are an example of this phenomenon; humans are rather the opposite.

I just like this picture as it’s evocative of another era. This is the Main Navy and Munitions Buildings, built in 1918 and demolished in 1970.

How much alike, and how much different, are we from the Americans who built and worked in these buildings?

More info here.

Axios has a disturbing report:

The number of partisan-backed outlets designed to look like impartial news outlets has officially surpassed the number of real, local daily newspapers in the U.S., according to a new analysis.

Why it matters: Many of those sites are targeted to swing states — a clear sign that they’re designed to influence politics.

An independent press run by public spirited citizens is a vital part of a free democracy. These are not – the chained dogs of people frantic to win, because that’s how they advance up the all-important social ladder of prestige and, well, We’re better than you!

Which is all a bit pathetic and a commentary on how the evolutionary positive features of yesterday just don’t scale up so well.

PS Gotta love this:

Catch up quick: These types of websites are often referred to as “pink slime,” a term that originated in the ground beef industry.

• The term has been used for more than a decade to describe politically motivated websites masquerading as independent local news outlets.

Wow. Just wow.

Mr Trump visited Capitol Hill yesterday. Rep Schiff’s (D-CA) comment?

It’s bring your felon to work day. pic.twitter.com/XNMu6JQ2d8

— Adam Schiff (@AdamSchiff) June 13, 2024

And yesterday’s predicted behaviors begin. First, let’s set the table: Hunter Biden’s trial was a Federal investigation and prosecution leading to convictions, in contrast to the Trump trial, which was a State investigation and prosecution, resulting in convictions. For those readers who don’t quite understand the legal niceties, State prosecutions are beyond the meddling of the President or Congress, as Rep Jordan (R-OH) has found out. Federal prosecutions, while the territory of the DoJ, could be subjected to undue influence, so the fact that Hunter Biden was convicted suggests that either President Biden threw his surviving son under the bus, or he’s terrible at meddling – or he did the right thing and didn’t meddle.

Let’s lead off with Rep Andrew Clyde (R-AL):

Hunter Biden’s guilty verdict is nothing more than the Left’s attempt to create the illusion of equal justice.

Don’t fall for it. [X]

Brevity with conspiracy. I like it. But failing to confuse the reader with loads of justificatory bullshit runs the risk letting the reader say, “Wha–?!” and recognize the contradiction. 3/5.

Kash Patel:

“Hunter Biden’s guilty verdict is a rare example of constitutional justice, one not where individuals receive biased treatment based on their last name,” Patel said. “The jury was able to consider the prosecution and defense evidence in full, in accordance with due process — a right that was single-handedly bastardized against President Trump by the judge, jury and prosecutors in New York.” [NBC News]

Positive points for bullshit, negative points for not presenting evidence that Trump was mistreated by the legal system of New York, more negative points for not mentioning the Federal vs State distinction, and more positive points for not claiming Hunter was sacrificed on the altar of the Left. 3.5/5, I’d say, but ya couldn’t dance to it. Oh, and Patel will look back on this moment in twenty years and squirm uncontrollably. We’re not talking about a bench trial, we’re talking about a jury trial, and if base illegalities did take place, the jury would have found for Trump. Instead, they found for the State, and rather quickly.

Former Trump advisor Stephen Miller falls down on the job:

The gun charges are a giant misdirection. An easy op for DOJ to sell to a pliant media that is all too willing to be duped. Don’t be gaslit. This is all about protecting Joe Biden and only Joe Biden.

No evidence, too generic, and projects Mr. Trump’s central character flaw of being a solipsist onto President Biden, which, given the President’s behavior patterns over the year, flawed as they might be in my reader’s eyes, does not match up as a narcissist. 1/5, and trying to not look embarrassed when questioned by folks who depend on you, Mr. Miller, will be a chore much like trying to choke down cowshit.

Non-public facing people can be a bit more forthright. Here’s an anonymous Republican strategist:

“It, at a minimum, slows the momentum and the clear-cut argument that the Trump campaign previously had about Biden’s weaponization of the justice system. … It’s less of a bumper-sticker than it was before.” [NBC News]

Of course, strategists who lie to themselves and others become unemployed rather quickly. Allies are not in the same boat, but they hate surprises even more. This guy shows poor judgment in being an ally of Trump, but they are at least honest:

“I think this won’t matter a ton, but it undercuts the argument of a two-tiered system of justice,” said one Trump ally who made the case that the former president would be better off letting that line of attack wither. “The more that argument exists and is pushed, the worse it is for Trump. It’s too close to ‘threats to democracy’ and drives that issue — the only issue where Biden enjoys a lead.” [NBC News]

4/5. The deduction comes from the misjudgment – or lie – that Biden only enjoys a lead on threats to democracy. Respect for military service, management of government debt, support for law enforcement, employment, even immigration, these are just some of the issues in which Biden enjoys an edge – in reality. In the realm of lies, though, he’s in trouble.

Given all these quotes, though, perhaps a Democrat should get a quote.

“The only ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome’ going on around here is on the other side of the aisle,” [Rep Jim McGovern (D-MA)] explained. “People are saying that Biden orchestrated the conviction of his own son in order to justify the criminal charges against Trump. That is how you think when you are in a cult.” [Maddowblog]

It’s a cult, a cult devoted to the idea that passionate religious zeal is as valid as sober appraisals of reality, a cult in which, as is usually the case, the leaders are grifters.

Which sounds like a band name. But they’re looking good this season.

Don’t leave home without it! Whatever it is!

Forgotten News & Otherwise

• In June 4th background news, New Mexico’s Senator Heinrich (D-NM) and Nella Domenici (R-NM) won their primaries and the right to face each other in the Senate general election this November. The incumbent is expected to win in this blue state.
• Nevada’s June 11th primaries yielded winners in the persons of incumbent Senator Rosen (D-NV), with 107,000+ votes and 92% of the ballots in the Democratic primary, and Sam Brown (R-NV), with 64,000+ votes and nearly 57% of the primary vote in the Republican primary. Senator Rosen must run with the national message on abortion, plus local concerns. Brown must avoid abortion while bringing together the Republican factions and convincing independents to vote for him. The headwinds of abortion make this quite a challenge for Mr. Brown, a local businessman.
• Incidentally, in the Nevada Republican primary Mr. Brown defeated Mr. Gunter, the second place finisher, by 40+ points. As it was Kaplan Strategies (2.0) that recently gave Gunter a 1 point lead, I think I will be shaking my head in the future whenever I encounter Kaplan. Their results may be bought prior to sampling, it appears.
• The June 25th primary in New York has been canceled. The two major party candidates promoted to the general election in November are incumbent Senator Gillibrand (D-NY) and Mike Sapraicone (R-NY). The Senator won by 34 points in 2018, and, despite a couple of miscues, including the fiery lack of redemptive opportunity she, and others, imposed upon Senator Franken (D-MN) for the faux-pas that resulted in Franken resigning in disgrace, and her poor showing in her run for the Presidency, there’s little reason to think the inexperienced Sapraicone can offer a serious challenge in this enormously blue state.
• As expected, the June 11th North Dakota primary resulted in the advancement of incumbent Senator Cramer (R-ND) and Katrina Christiansen (D-ND). The latter’s experience consists of running in the 2022 Senate contest against Senator John Hoeven (R-ND) and losing by 30+ points. There seems little reason, in this solid Republican state, not to expect a repeat, although the fallout of the Dobbs decision may shrink the margin a little bit.
• Marist Poll (2.9) gives incumbent Senator Brown (D-OH) a five point lead, 50%-45%, over challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH) in Ohio, a hoped-for pickup by the Republicans.
• Marist Poll (2.9) gives incumbent Senator Casey (D-PA) a six point lead, 52%-46%, over David McCormick (R-PA?) in Pennsylvania.
• The Tyson Group, holder of a lowly 1.2 rating, has bad news for prospective Florida Democratic Senate nominee Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL): She’s down 13 points to incumbent Senator Scott (R-FL), 46%-33%, in the campaign for Scott’s Florida Senate seat. If this was a bigger name pollster, I’d be classifying the Florida race as becoming another sideshow, but 1.2 is not a good FiveThirtyEight rating. This being Florida, a big state, another poll will amble along, and here it is: Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab, holder of a mediocre 2.0 rating, has Rep Mucarsel-Powell down by only 2 to Senator Scott, 45%-43%. If more accurate than The Tyson Group and chronic Republican underperformance holds, Scott could be in trouble. Trouble, trouble, let’s add a third: PolCom Lab’s statistical pool is smaller than that of Tyson, 1000+ to 770. Interpretation and adjustment becomes more important than pool size at some point, but I don’t remember enough sampling from statistics & probability to say what the crossover point might be. Florida’s Senate race will remain interesting so long as well-regarded pollsters find a close race.

Current Summary

Trundling through the races, here’s what strikes me as still in doubt, or might be in view of future events:

• In Arizona, with primaries still to come, the Republicans appear to be melting down in a race they hoped to win.
• Florida remains unclear.
• Maryland may be in doubt, or candidate Larry Hogan (R-MD) may have alienated voters on both sides of the political spectrum, rendering this blue state blue.
• Michigan, in Slotkin (D) and Rogers (R) may see a heavyweight slugout, despite the burning tire fire that is the Michigan Republican Party.
• In Nevada, Senator Rosen (D-NV) would seem to have the initial advantage over Republican nominee Sam Brown (R-NV), but there’s still time.
• The surprise prize may not go to Maryland, but to New Jersey, as incumbent and indicted-for-bribery Senator Menendez has changed his Party registration from Democratic Party to Independent and filed to run for reelection, challenging primary winners Rep Andy Kim (D-NJ) and Curtis Bashaw (R-NJ). Without his presence, I’d expect Rep Kim to win in a walk, but now the race is subject to public perceptions of Menendez’s indictment and trial. Awaiting polls now.
• While not a done deal, Senator Brown (D-OH) seems comfortably ahead.
• Ditto Senator Casey (D-PA).
• Ditto Senator Baldwin (D-WI). Praise be to the power of incumbency!
• 

  Governor Jim Justice (R-WV).

  West Virginia appears to be changing columns from Democrats to Republicans. However, this expectation could disappear if Senator Manchin, who previously announced his retirement and changed his Party registration from Democratic Party to Independent, changes his mind and files to run against Elliott (D-WV) and Justice (R-WV). It’s not clear to me what happens in a Jim Justice vs Joe Manchin showdown, although, based on visage, it’s Justice all the way.

Now that Hunter Biden has been found guilty of all charges in his gun charges federal case, it might seem that the yelling from the Republicans that the DoJ has been weaponized would settle down out of embarrassment.

I don’t expect it to.

The Republicans, along with being fresh out of embarrassment, have to keep up the screaming because that’s darn near all they have left. Mr Trump botched the immigration issue, so they cannot successfully use it against the Democrats, although Mr Trump, who appears to be demented, may try nonetheless. They opposed an infrastructure package so popular that they show up at ribbon cuttings in order to steal the thunder. They’ve lost the appellation Law & Order Party when Mr Trump was convicted.

For knowledgeable observers, it doesn’t come off so well.

So I expect we’ll be hearing how the conviction of Biden will be proof that the DoJ has been weaponized by Biden, and he’s thrown his own son under the bus in order to make it look like it’s not weaponized. That’s my guess, a Heads I win — tails you lose! scenario that is the height of dishonesty.

And this is all the result of a Party trying to follow the dictates of disgraced former Speaker and Rep Newt Gingrich (R-GA), that dictate being Never let the Democrats win. I was thinking about this today and realized that a guy who no longer has skin in the game can say any damn thing; watching the Party members in Congress hopping around like frogs in a pelican nest is, really, quite a sad thing to contemplate when you remember this is the US Congress and not a drunken frat party.

I do hope they come up with something more inventive than just This proves they weaponized the DoJ! I do hope that all the extremists get dumped out of the political system, like pus squeezed from an infection, this time around.

This is a disconcerting headline on CNN/Business:

Chiquita found liable for financing paramilitary group

Click on me?

For those not familiar with the name, Chiquita produces and distributes bananas, primarily from South America; they were once known as the United Fruit Co. In general, banana companies have been known to treat Central and South America as its own little plantation; the advent of leftist political movements and groups in those areas generated alarm concerning their profits.

So it appears Chiquita was willing to terrorize and kill those who threatened their profit.

At the moment, they appear to be liable for some fines, but the question of, well, humanity raises its head. Shouldn’t the folks who financed and enabled such actions be punished rather more severely? Admonishment is hardly enough.

I’m just rather gobsmacked that this happened. Yeah, yeah, I’m naive. But it’s true.

Shitpost:

You’ll want to go stick this in all the MAGA mistrial threads. 👇 pic.twitter.com/MiciimBIyW

— Rachel Bitecofer 🗽💡🔭🦆 (@RachelBitecofer) June 8, 2024

And why gatekeepers are actually valuable.