The Libertarian Convention took place a day or two ago, and Mr. Trump came to seek its endorsement. What did he get?
I went through Trump's appearance at the Libertarian National Convention. If you're ever in the need for a pick me up this is one minute of a crowd booing Trump. I cut out as much of his voice as possible. You're welcome. pic.twitter.com/nV0GTF7IFq
— Decoding Fox News (@DecodingFoxNews) May 26, 2024
The Libertarian numbers are small enough that they aren’t a real force in politics, and they know this. That’s why they’re a member, informal as it might be, of the Republican coalition; the Reason magazine slogan of Free Markets, Free Minds slogan, and all it implies, makes it hard for them to interact with the Democrats.
But the Republicans are moving away from free markets, as evidenced by attempts to pick winners by Mr Trump during his Administration, and this will drive away libertarian true believers. In essence, we’re seeing the stripping away of fellow travellers and loose adherents from the intolerant core of Republican True Believers. The bulging eyed believers are engaged in competition to move up the social power ladder of the Republican Party, and one approach to this is to expel those who do not have the exact same tenets, often known as RINO[1]-ism in this context. Purity is all.
Mr. Trump recognizes, in some dim way, that this is the destruction of his national influence; he, and his successors, are in imminent danger of being shunted aside into obscurity and impotence. Whether or not any of his allies also realize this is questionable, since many have only recently risen to prominence and have not the experience to properly scent the wind of public opinion. But this recognition explains Mr. Trump’s appeal for the nomination, and it’s a vivid depiction of his political fate.
What’s to come? I speculate that one to three conservative states will be informally chosen as havens for the MAGA base, adopted homes for purity of MAGA ideology. By overwhelming local opposition electorally, they’ll retain some presence in Congress, but intra-party competition will be much like it is today, metaphorically cut-throat. It will be unpleasant and drive away those who tire of the drama, even if they’re faithful.
Meanwhile, conservatives who cannot stand liberals and cannot stand Mr. Trump will get together and form a new party. I doubt they’ll take over the libertarians, and the other small conservative parties are probably not worth the effort. Call them the New Republicans, I suppose. They’ll make a go of advocating for pro-life positions initially, and, at some point, that’ll be quietly dropped as a matter of individual choice. It’ll be a long trip to the correct conclusion.
Groups betting on the Republicans may lose their bets, big time. Check out this article on the cryptocurrency industry, which appears to be betting more on Republicans than Democrats, although they get a mention as well. And notice how crypto is wriggling to get out from under the thumb of the SEC, substituting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Ya gotta wonder how the legal powers of the CFTC compare to the SEC’s. It all feels quite corrupt, especially for an industry that threatens both citizens’ wealth and the energy infrastructure of, well, the world.
And the Democrats? They’ll continue to puzzle over their lack of positive popularity in many locations, having to use negative campaigning such as The Republicans will take away your reproductive freedoms! rather than campaigning on their own proposed solutions to upcoming policy problems. The arrogance exhibited by both major parties will continue to repel the electorate, and proclamations that Americans are just racist, bigots, or whatever, and that explains Democratic failures will not help the Democrats improve.
Incidentally, the Libertarians selected Chase Oliver as their nominee. He demonstrated why the libertarians will continue to split from Republicans immediately:
Oliver, a 38-year-old gay man from Atlanta with socially tolerant and pro-immigration views, delivered a passionate response after Trump’s speech to the convention on Saturday. Now, he will get to spend the next six months competing directly against Trump and President Joe Biden, two men more than twice his age. After winning on Sunday, Oliver promised to keep pressing a message that neither major-party candidate is likely to offer.
Not exactly attractive attributes and positions to the MAGA base.
It took Oliver seven rounds of balloting, and the last ballot saw his remaining competitor be None of the above. He beat NOTA with only 60.6% of the ballots, which suggests some dissatisfaction in the Libertarian ranks, but that’s unsurprising. Libertarians like to think themselves as an intellectually rowdy bunch.
1 RINO is Republican In Name Only. It’s the hunting cry of the power-hungry.
