Where a fourth installment of Senate campaign news appears … When will he run out of fingers? readers ask. It’s perhaps best you don’t ask about my source of countin’ fingers.
Latest News
- Latest polls for the reelection run of Senator Cruz (R-TX) do not show a close race, but The Texas Tribune notes an interesting behavioral change:
Heading into the heat of his reelection race against Dallas Congressman Colin Allred, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is testing the waters with a rebrand.
Cruz, who has made a name for himself as an uncompromising conservative stalwart, is casting himself as a bipartisan lawmaker with a penchant for reaching across the aisle.
“I actually have very good relationships with many of my colleagues across the aisle,” Cruz told The Texas Tribune, citing his work with Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar. “I’ve worked with all three of them and all three are friends.”
The interview was part of Cruz’s recent media blitz highlighting his work with Democrats, off the heels of his “Democrats for Cruz” announcement which aims to attract left-leaning voters this November. He debuted that messaging during a Laredo meeting with the U.S. Hispanic Business Council, where he stressed the value of bipartisanship legislating and enumerated several bills he’s written with Democratic senators. Meanwhile, Cruz is blasting Allred as not as bipartisan as he claims, citing the Democrat’s voting record with his party’s leadership.
Do internal polls at the Cruz campaign show a closer race than anticipated? Or does Cruz scent a falling off of support for Republican antics? The Texas Tribune notes a pair of older polls as potential justification:
The rhetorical shift comes as polls show another tight race for Cruz. A February poll by the University of Texas at Tyler showed the two candidates equally polling at 41%. Another poll conducted in March by Marist College found Cruz ahead by six percentage points.
While UT-Tyler only has a 1.9 stars (out of 3) rating, Marist College has a 2.9 rating, both from FiveThirtyEight. Still, March was a long time ago; a bit of research yields a YouGov (2.9) poll giving Cruz a +13 advantage. I’m not sure The Texas Tribune can yet justify its assertion of a close race, even factoring in chronic Republican underperformance. Can Allred make up the difference? I noticed in the same YouGov poll the section Colin Allred Favorability Trend indicates improvement by the Representative.
- The Florida race between Senator Scott (R-FL) and Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) has produced some interesting polls. Here’s a summary:
The margins easily categorize the pollsters into excellent ratings and mediocre ratings, and is instructive in the importance of pollster knowledge of past performance when surveying polls. While Mucarsel-Powell remains substantially behind, even assuming chronic Republican underperformance holds true for Senator Scott, eight points is potentially manageable over the next three or so months. - Is Arizona getting away from the Republicans? In the race for the open Arizona Senate seat, YouGov (2.9) gives Democrat Ruben Gallego a 13 point lead over Republican Kari Lake, 49%-36%. If Lake, one of the more prominent proponents of election-denial and election machine corruption, loses precipitously, that may bring discredit down on the movement, as well as blot all over Mr. Trump, although they'll scream cheaters!, in accordance with movement tactics. But having Gallego as Senator for six years exposes Arizona voters to Democrats, and independents may notice an improvement in representation, although the late Senator McCain (R-AZ) was certainly not an extremist.Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic University (2.0) gives Gallego an 8 point lead, 48%-39%. Welcome to rounding.
- Florida Atlantic University (2.0) gives Nevada incumbent Senator Rosen (D-NV) an 11 point lead over likely Republican nominee Sam Brown, 48%-37%. Brown, however, is not unchallenged in the primary, including attacks by businessman Jeff Gunter (R-NV). Polling seems to show Brown's dominant position in the primary is unaffected, but primary polling is notoriously fickle. It's quite possible the Nevada Republican voters will fracture and alienate from each other, though, dooming the undetermined Republican nominee.
- In Minnesota, the Minnesota GOP has endorsed former NBA player Royce White (R-MN) for the nomination. Primaries are still to come, though, and the Republican primary field has six other candidates, according to Ballotpedia. Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) faces a single opponent, Derek Logan (D-MN), in her primary run.
